Liam Duckstein
Panathinaikos and Paksi meet again at the Athens Olympic Stadium for the second leg of their UEFA Conference League Second Qualifying Round tie. The Greeks head into this match with a 2-1 advantage from the first leg, putting them firmly in control of the tie. What makes this match interesting is that Paksi actually beat Ferencvaros 4-2 in their most recent league fixture, showing they can produce going forward, but the task of overturning a deficit away from home against a side in strong domestic form is a different challenge entirely.
Two players to watch closely are Santino Andino of Panathinaikos, who has scored twice in the last three matches and carries a real threat from midfield, and Jozsef Szalai for Paksi, who has two goals and one assist in his last three appearances and will be Paksi’s best hope of forcing a comeback.
The hot stat from recent fixtures: Paksi have accumulated 10 offsides across their last five matches, the highest of either side, suggesting their attacking runners push the line aggressively. Against a well-organized Panathinaikos defensive structure, that habit could prove costly tonight.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Athens Olympic Stadium, Athens |
| 🗓️ Date: | 30.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Panathinaikos vs Paksi Prediction
Panathinaikos hold the first-leg advantage and play at home in front of their own supporters. With a 74% bookmaker win probability assigned to the hosts, the market strongly backs Jacob Neestrup’s side to see this tie through. We predict a Panathinaikos win or draw on the night, with the home side having little incentive to take risks and every reason to play a controlled, structured game.
Looking at the style of play from both sides, Panathinaikos have recorded 40 fouls and 7 yellow cards across their last five matches, suggesting they are not shy about making their presence felt defensively. Their pass accuracy sits at a healthy ratio relative to their volume, reflecting a team that circulates the ball with purpose. Paksi are a less disciplined passing side, with lower pass accuracy across their recent matches, and their 3 yellow cards in five games could indicate they’ve been somewhat fortunate. Against a physical Greek side at the Olympic Stadium, that may change.
Paksi’s 17 corner kicks in five matches, compared to Panathinaikos’s 12, shows they do generate set-piece opportunities, but corners alone won’t be enough to turn this tie around.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Panathinaikos to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Panathinaikos have been in excellent form over the past 30 days, winning four of their five matches. Their campaign has included a strong 3-1 victory over Ajax and a 4-0 thrashing of Helmond in that stretch, though they did suffer a 4-0 loss to SK Rapid, which stands as the one blemish. The first leg win over Paksi, a 2-1 result, was their most recent competitive outing and showed they can manage a game when needed without being spectacular.
Paksi arrive at this second leg in mixed form. Over the last 30 days they have played ten matches, winning five, losing four, and drawing one. Their 4-0 win over Hapoel Ramat Gan and the 5-3 victory over Slaven Belupo show they can score goals freely. The 4-2 win over Ferencvaros in their most recent match before tonight is a confidence boost. Still, they also conceded four goals to Austria Vienna and lost 2-1 in the first leg to Panathinaikos, and reversing that deficit on the road will be a tall order.
🚨Check out our dedicated Panathinaikos vs Paksi stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Panathinaikos the Favourite
- Moneyline Panathinaikos 1.27 | Paksi 10.28
- Draw 5.59
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds reflect what the standings suggest. Panathinaikos at around 1.27 is a short price, but it is justified given the home advantage, the first-leg lead, and their superior recent form. Paksi at 10.28 to win on the night tells you everything about how the market views their chances of a comeback. The draw at around 5.59 is the only real alternative outcome worth considering, but even that would see Panathinaikos progress. We see the hosts as a solid, if low-value, selection to win on the night.
Possible Starting Lineups
Panathinaikos Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Iñaki Peña
- DF: Triantafyllos Tsapras, Ahmed Touba, Stefan de Vrij, Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
- MF: Etiene Camara, Adam Gnezda Čerin, Adriano Jagusic, Santino Andino
- FW: Anass Zaroury, Andrews Tetteh
Neestrup is likely to stick with the 3-4-2-1 shape that has served the team well in recent weeks. Iñaki Peña has been the regular starter in goal and brings composure with the ball at his feet. The back three of Tsapras, Touba, and De Vrij provides solidity, with Kyriakopoulos offering width from deep. Santino Andino is the man to watch in the engine room, having scored twice in three games, and Andrews Tetteh offers a direct running threat up front.
Paksi Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Ádám Kovácsik
- DF: János Szabó, Bence Lenzsér, Mario Zeke
- MF: József Windecker, Balázs Balogh, Kristóf Papp, Gabor Vas, Kevin Horvath
- FW: Dániel Böde, Jozsef Szalai
György Bognár will likely set Paksi up in their familiar 4-2-3-1, with Ádám Kovácsik in goal. Kovácsik has made 13 saves across the last three matches, which underlines how much defensive work Paksi have needed from their goalkeeper. Dániel Böde has scored twice recently and provides the physical focal point up front, while Szalai’s combination of goals and assists makes him the most dangerous creative force. Paksi will need a fast start to have any hope of turning this tie around.
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Paksi. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Panathinaikos go into this second leg with a one-goal aggregate lead, home advantage, and a squad that has won four of its last five matches. Their defensive numbers are solid, their midfield has goal-scoring presence, and they are playing at a venue where Paksi have never performed. Paksi showed fight in the first leg and beat Ferencvaros convincingly in their last league match, but their pass accuracy, defensive organization, and away record in European competition all point against them here.
We predict Panathinaikos to win this match and progress through the tie. A 2-0 scoreline on the night looks like the most likely outcome, with the Greeks playing controlled football and Paksi struggling to find the two goals without reply they need. The hosts’ ability to press high and exploit Paksi’s tendency to push their line into offside positions should prove the difference. Paksi to nil is our preferred value pick for those looking beyond the simple match winner market.
