The TipsGG Data team brings you a fresh betting digest for the UEFA Conference League quarterfinal second legs on April 16, 2026. This edition features 4 expert predictions across four compelling matchups, with the biggest odds reaching 2.26 on the AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano clash. Read on for detailed breakdowns and value picks.
AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk
For Shakhtar Donetsk, the first-leg clash against AZ carried special significance. It was the miners’ first match after tragic news: on April 7, Mircea Lucescu passed away. The Donetsk club shares a storied history with the Romanian specialist, who led them to the 2009 UEFA Cup triumph. Extra motivation was hardly needed: Shakhtar gave everything and won 3:0. The scoreline, though, did not fully reflect the flow of the game, and the three-goal margin looked overly harsh on the Dutch side.
On Sunday, AZ comfortably dispatched Heerenveen (3:0). The race at the top of the Eredivisie is as tight as it gets: the cheese farmers sit sixth, trailing the Champions League zone by 6 points. On top of that, AZ face Nijmegen in the Dutch Cup final on April 19.
Shakhtar managed to squeeze in a title showdown against LNZ (2:2). Both sides currently have 51 points, but the Donetsk club hold a game in hand. LNZ have the advantage in head-to-head encounters, so Arda Turan‘s charges cannot afford any slip-ups in the league.
As practice shows, Shakhtar find it psychologically harder to protect a lead than to play from level terms. I expect AZ to at least avoid defeat at home, but the first-leg handicap is too significant to hope for an overall success by the hosts.
Prediction: AZ double chance (1X) and total goals over 1.5 – odds 1.66
Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace
The heavy away defeat essentially kills Fiorentina‘s chances of reaching the semifinal of their beloved Conference League. The season under Paolo Vanoli has been grueling. A 1:0 win over Lazio in Serie A at least eased the pressure in the survival battle, allowing the squad to focus on the return leg against the Glaziers and display the quality they showed recently against Lazio and Inter.
Crystal Palace found a second wind as the season progressed. That momentum has kept them in the Premier League midtable, carried them deep into the Conference League, and fueled a run of seven matches unbeaten. Such confidence allowed them to pin Fiorentina back at home. The away trip will be tougher, but Oliver Glasner‘s side know how to score on the road, and their defensive structure holds up well when the attitude is right.
I assume Fiorentina will try to turn things around, but I still lean toward the English side avoiding defeat.
Prediction: Crystal Palace double chance and total goals over 1.5 – odds 1.99
Strasbourg vs Mainz
At the Stade de la Meinau, the home side will attempt to break down a sturdy Mainz outfit and overturn a two-goal deficit from the first leg of the Conference League quarterfinal.
Since the start of the season, the Alsatians have shown solid consistency on home soil, losing just three times. All three defeats came in the league with an identical 1:2 scoreline. In the Conference League, including qualifying rounds, Strasbourg remain unbeaten at home: two wins and three draws. The loss of top scorer Joaquín Panichelli to a serious injury is a painful blow for Gary O’Neil‘s side, significantly weakening their attacking output.
In the latest Bundesliga matchday, a narrow 0:1 defeat to Freiburg ended Mainz‘s impressive nine-match unbeaten run. In France, the task for Urs Fischer‘s men looks entirely pragmatic: protect the advantage secured at home. The Carnival club typically display organized defensive play, making them an uncomfortable opponent for teams chasing a comeback.
Despite Strasbourg‘s confident home form, the experience and tactical discipline of the German side inspire more trust. Mainz are capable of stifling the game and securing an acceptable result in a low-scoring affair, which would see them through to the semifinal.
Prediction: Mainz double chance (X2) – odds 1.88
AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano
The first leg between these two sides a week ago left little room for intrigue. Clawing back three goals after an away defeat is possible, but the details matter. AEK still lack consistency in results, and the club has not faced a challenge of this magnitude in quite some time. Personnel issues compound the problem: three goals must be recovered, yet the top scorer is unavailable due to suspension.
The hosts will have to take risks to please their fans, but that will obviously play into the opponent’s hands as well. Rayo Vallecano can feel comfortable knowing they simply need to avoid critical defensive errors. Over the past month, that has been a rare feat, yet their attack is capable of compensating for any lapses.
Expect the hosts to push hard, and they may well grab a win, but the visitors will also find the net and will not let go of what they already have.
Prediction: Both teams to score and AEK double chance – odds 2.26
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