Rafael Nogueira
Group A of the ASEAN Championship 2026 reaches a decisive stage as Indonesia host Vietnam at Pakansari Stadium on August 3. Indonesia sit second with six points from two wins, while Vietnam trail on four after a win and a draw. A win for either side keeps alive their hopes of chasing Singapore at the top, making this a genuine six-pointer. What makes the contest particularly interesting is that Vietnam beat Indonesia 1-0 the last time these sides met, at the ASEAN Championship 2024/25, so John Herdman’s side will be looking to settle that score on home soil.
Mitchell Lee Baker has been the standout performer for Indonesia, scoring four goals in just two tournament appearances and totalling 15 shots across his last five matches. For Vietnam, striker Nguyen Dinh Bac carries the attacking threat with three goals in two games, combining well with Nguyen Van Vi, who has already contributed an assist from the defensive line.
Hot stat: Indonesia have scored eight goals across their two ASEAN Championship group games, averaging four per match, the highest output of any team remaining in Group A.
| 🏆 Tournament: | ASEAN Championship 2026, Group A |
| 🏟 Venue: | Pakansari Stadium, Bogor Regency |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
Indonesia vs Vietnam Prediction
Both teams have been free-scoring in this tournament, combining for 15 goals across four group matches. Indonesia have beaten East Timor 3-0 and Cambodia 5-1, while Vietnam dispatched East Timor 7-0 before drawing 0-0 with Singapore. The head-to-head history gives Vietnam a psychological edge, but Indonesia’s home crowd, superior recent scoring form, and a 100% win rate in the last 30 days make them a reasonable selection for the win.
Indonesia operate in a 5-4-1 shape but push their wing-backs aggressively, generating corners and wide free kicks. Their 27 fouls across five matches compared to Vietnam’s 13 shows Indonesia play more physically, which tends to produce stoppages and set-piece opportunities. Vietnam’s low foul count and 13 corner kicks in five matches reflect a possession-based, technically composed style. Thom Haye’s ability to combine set-piece delivery with progressive passing from midfield is a key asset for Indonesia, while Vietnam’s disciplined defensive structure could limit space in behind.
We predict Indonesia to win this match, with both teams likely to find the net given their collective attacking output. Over 2.5 goals looks well-supported by the data.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Indonesia to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Indonesia arrive in excellent form under John Herdman, winning all six of their matches this year and both of their last 30-day fixtures. Their tournament campaign opened with a 5-1 demolition of Cambodia, where Mitchell Lee Baker scored four, and continued with a composed 3-0 win over East Timor. Across their five most recent matches, Indonesia have posted 48 shots and maintained a pass accuracy of around 90%, suggesting a confident, direct style that does not sacrifice structure for aggression. Prior to the tournament, they beat Oman 3-0 and Mozambique 1-0, showing they can manage different types of opponents.
Vietnam have been one of the most consistent sides in the region this year, recording seven wins from eight matches. Sang-sik Kim’s squad began their ASEAN Championship campaign with a 7-0 rout of East Timor, with Nguyen Dinh Bac leading the charge, before holding Singapore to a 0-0 draw in a more cautious tactical display. Their wider recent schedule included wins over Myanmar (4-0), a South Korean club side (2-1), and a J-League club (2-1), demonstrating depth and adaptability. Vietnam’s only blemish across 15 recent matches is a single loss, pointing to a well-drilled defensive unit that rarely capitulates.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Indonesia | Vietnam |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Indonesia vs Vietnam stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Vietnam the Favourite
- Moneyline Indonesia 2.25 | Vietnam 2.75
- Draw 3.30
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmaker average gives Indonesia a 41% chance and Vietnam 35%, yet the available moneyline odds from Bovada price Vietnam shorter than their probability implies, at 2.75 versus Indonesia’s 2.25. That small gap reflects the market’s respect for Vietnam’s consistency, despite Indonesia’s home advantage and recent scoring form. Given Indonesia’s four goals per game in this tournament, the value on a home win at 2.25 looks reasonable. The draw at 3.30 is relatively short for a match between two attack-minded sides, and we would not prioritise it.
Vietnam. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Indonesia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nadeo Argawinata
- DF: Rizky Ridho Ramadhani, Jordi Amat, Sandy Walsh, Shayne Pattynama, Brian Fatari
- MF: Thom Haye, Ivar Jenner, Eliano Reijnders, Marc Klok
- FW: Mitchell Lee Baker
Herdman is expected to stay with the 5-4-1 that has produced eight goals in two matches. Nadeo Argawinata starts in goal, with Jordi Amat anchoring a five-man backline alongside Rizky Ridho and Sandy Walsh. Thom Haye is the player to watch from midfield, contributing three assists and one goal across his last five matches while handling set-piece deliveries. Mitchell Lee Baker leads the line and, with four goals in two tournament games, is the most dangerous attacker on the pitch.
Vietnam Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Dang Van Lâm
- DF: Phạm Xuân Mạnh, Nguyen Van Vi, Nguyen Nhat Minh, Pham Gia Hung
- MF: Nguyen Hoang Duc, Trương Tiến Anh, Nguyen Hai Long, Le Pham Thanh Long
- FW: Nguyen Dinh Bac, Saddil Ramdani
Kim Sang-sik deploys Vietnam in a 5-4-1 mirror of Indonesia’s setup, with Dang Van Lâm expected between the posts. Nguyen Dinh Bac is the player to watch up front, having scored three times and posted ten shots across two tournament games. Nguyen Hoang Duc provides the creative link from midfield with two interceptions and an assist, while Phạm Xuân Mạnh adds physical presence from the back. Vietnam’s low yellow card count across five matches, just one, suggests they maintain discipline even in tight contests.
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Indonesia. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Indonesia enter this match as the form team in Group A, averaging four goals per game in the tournament and carrying a 100% win rate over the past 30 days. Vietnam are no pushovers, they have lost just once across their last 15 matches and own the head-to-head record from 2024/25, but their 0-0 draw with Singapore last round suggests they can be contained when facing a well-organised opponent.
To be honest, the stats point clearly to a high-scoring match. Indonesia’s 48 shots and 10 corners across five matches, combined with Vietnam’s 13 corners and Nguyen Dinh Bac’s goal threat, make Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals the most data-supported outcomes. We predict Indonesia to win, with Vietnam finding the net at least once. The best value bet is Indonesia to win and both teams to score.
