Alex MacQuoid
Sabah Baku open their UEFA Champions League qualifying campaign at home on July 7th, hosting Welsh side The New Saints at the Alinja Arena in Absheron. On paper this looks like a comfortable night for the Azerbaijani outfit, and the bookmakers agree, pricing Sabah as heavy favourites at 73%. What makes this one worth a closer look is the gap in recent form — Sabah arrive off a 1-4 loss to Polissya in a pre-season friendly, while The New Saints have been grinding through competitive Welsh and Irish fixture lists. Neither side has entered the Champions League standings yet, so this first leg is genuinely open in terms of psychological pressure.
Sabah Baku’s attacking midfielder and creative hub will be the one to watch in the final third — their ability to link play through tight spaces against a disciplined TNS defensive shape will define whether Sabah can break the deadlock early. For The New Saints, their forward line has shown a nose for goals even against better-rated opposition, and Craig Harrison’s side are not in the business of sitting back and hoping for a point.
Hot stat: The New Saints have recorded a 75% win rate across 16 matches in 2026, better than Sabah Baku’s 64% across 25 games. For a side expected to lose, that underlying consistency is not nothing.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, First Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Alinja Arena, Absheron |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Sabah Baku vs The New Saints Prediction
Sabah Baku are the clear choice on the moneyline, but at 1.25 with Betway the value is thin. We think the more interesting angle is the total goals market. Sabah’s last two matches produced just two goals combined (a 1-4 loss and a 1-1 draw in friendlies), and The New Saints’ most recent competitive outing ended 1-2. These are not sides that tend to put five past each other in a first qualifying leg, especially with so much at stake over two legs.
Sabah’s recent defensive record is a concern — they conceded five goals across their last two matches. That said, Polissya and Universitatea Craiova are considerably stronger opposition than what The New Saints typically face. Valdas Dambrauskas will be aware his backline needs to tighten up, and a more cautious first-leg approach from the home side is plausible. The New Saints, playing away from home in a foreign country against a physically stronger squad, will likely look to stay compact and hit on the counter, which is exactly the kind of setup that keeps scorelines low.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sabah Baku to win & Under 3.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Sabah Baku’s recent run is a mixed picture. Their year-long stats show 16 wins from 25 matches (64%), which is solid for a domestic-level team pushing into European competition. Their form string — wwdwdwwwwlwlwdl — shows a side that wins regularly but drops points in bursts. The most recent result, a 1-4 defeat to Polissya (rated 248th in the world), is a real red flag. Polissya are no giant, and conceding four at home or in a pre-season context suggests Sabah’s defensive organisation is loose right now. The 1-1 draw with Universitatea Craiova before that was more respectable. Dambrauskas will have used those friendlies to rotate and experiment, so reading too much into them risks overreaction — but the defensive numbers are hard to ignore.
The New Saints arrive with genuine momentum by Welsh football standards. Their 2026 win rate of 75% across 16 games is impressive, and their form string — wwwwwlwwlwwwdwl — shows consistent winning punctuated by the occasional slip. Their last match, a 1-2 loss to Bangor 1876, is a bit of an outlier. Bangor are rated 22,301st in the world, which makes that result genuinely puzzling. Whether it was a rotated squad, a bad day, or a sign of fatigue late in a long season is hard to say. Before that, TNS beat HW Welders 2-1 and drew 1-1 with Glentoran — two competitive results. Craig Harrison has built a team that competes hard and rarely gets blown out, even against stronger opposition.
🚨Check out our dedicated Sabah Baku vs The New Saints stats page for more info.
The New Saints. Source: Official Website
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Sabah Baku the Favourite
- Moneyline Sabah Baku 1.25 | The New Saints 10.00
- Draw 5.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The 1.25 on Sabah Baku is extremely short. You are risking four units to win one, and that is a bet that demands near-certainty. Given Sabah’s shaky defensive form and TNS’s 75% win rate this year, that certainty is not there. Honestly, the draw at 5.00 has some appeal as a small-stake flier — TNS are not here just to make up the numbers, and a first-leg draw away from home would be a perfectly rational result for Harrison’s side. The 10.00 on TNS is generous but probably too generous given the context. We would not chase it at full stake. The value, if there is any, sits in the draw or in alternative markets like total goals.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sabah Baku Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Giorgi Makaridze
- DF: Maksim Medvedev, Bahlul Mustafazade, Vojislav Stankovic, Renat Dadashov
- MF: Elvin Jafarguliyev, Rahid Amirguliyev, Mahir Emreli, Tomas Basic
- FW: Dani Quintana, Rauf Aliyev
Dambrauskas has options across the pitch, and given the European context, he is unlikely to rotate heavily here. A 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 shape is the most probable setup, with Tomas Basic providing the engine in midfield and Mahir Emreli offering pace and directness from wide positions. Dani Quintana up front brings experience at this level and will be the focal point of Sabah’s attacking play. The back four needs to stay disciplined — Medvedev and Stankovic as the central partnership will be tested if TNS get in behind early.
The New Saints Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Connor Roberts
- DF: Lewis Banks, Jack Bodenham, Ryan Astles, Declan McManus
- MF: Jon Routledge, Eli King, Nicky Cadden, Daniel Davies
- FW: Leo Smith, Sion Bradley
Craig Harrison typically sets TNS up in a 4-4-2 or a compact 4-5-1 on the road, prioritising defensive shape over attacking ambition. Ryan Astles is the experienced head at the back and will be key to keeping Sabah’s forwards quiet. In midfield, Jon Routledge provides the energy and Jon Routledge and Eli King will need to win second balls if TNS are to stay in the match. Up front, Leo Smith’s movement off the shoulder of the last defender is the most likely route to a TNS goal — he has the pace to punish a high defensive line, and Sabah’s recent form suggests that line might be vulnerable.
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Sabah Baku. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Sabah Baku win this one, but not without a fight. Their home advantage at the Alinja Arena matters, and over a full season they are the stronger club. The New Saints, though, are a genuinely competitive outfit by European qualifying standards — they have been in these rounds before and know how to grind out a result. The 1-4 loss Sabah suffered against Polissya was alarming, and if TNS can stay compact in the first 20 minutes and not concede early, this could get tight.
Our call is Sabah Baku to win 2-0 or 2-1, with the game staying under 2.5 goals. The home side has the quality to get the job done, but their defensive fragility means a clean sheet is not guaranteed. We would back Sabah Baku to win combined with under 3.5 goals as the main bet, and maybe a small stake on the draw if you want some cover. At 5.00, the draw is not a bad insurance play at all.
