Istra 1961 vs Varazdin Prediction: 20.03.2026 1. HNL 2025/26 Preview

The 1. HNL regular season moves towards its decisive phase with a compelling mid-table encounter as Istra 1961 welcome Varazdin to the Aldo Drosina Stadium in Pula. Both sides have experienced fluctuating runs of form this campaign and see this fixture as a pivotal chance to climb closer to the European berths. Interestingly, only four points separate these two, adding a palpable tension to what’s often a tactically cagey matchup.

In terms of headline players, both teams will be looking towards their creative attacking talents. For Istra 1961, much will rest on the attacking effectiveness of Emil Frederiksen who, despite the team’s struggles, has shown flashes of game-changing brilliance. Varazdin lean heavily on Aleksa Latkovic, whose recent contributions in goals and assists have often been the difference maker. Expect these two to play central roles, especially given their ability to influence the tempo and draw defenders out of shape.

Among the most notable figures from recent games, Varazdin’s tally of 59 total shots across their last five matches stands out—significantly higher than Istra 1961’s 35 and pointing to a greater attacking ambition, even if their conversion rate has been inconsistent.

🏅Best bets for Istra 1961 vs Varazdin at Thunderpick with a Welcome offer +100% up to 600€💰

Istra 1961 vs Varazdin prediction

Given both sides’ recent form and statistical profiles, the best value for this clash appears to be supporting a draw. Istra 1961 have won just one of their last five, and Varazdin, for all their attacking volume, have struggled for consistency in the final third. While Varazdin shoot more often, Istra 1961 retain a slightly firmer defensive resolve at home, as seen in their 2-0 derby win over Rijeka. Furthermore, the last six direct encounters have produced three draws and matches typically separated by narrow margins.

Looking deeper, Varazdin’s tendency to pick up yellow cards and the solitary red in their last five suggests potential disciplinary issues that could disrupt their rhythm, particularly in a tight contest. Ball possession rates favor Istra 1961 slightly owing to their more patient passing game (1,641 passes in five games versus Varazdin’s 1,375), but both sides are prone to conceding fouls, setting the stage for a stop-start affair.

Team Analysis

Istra 1961’s recent form underscores a difficult spell, with four losses from their previous five matches. Still, their most recent performance—a resolute 2-0 win over third-placed Rijeka—signals their ability to tighten up under pressure and strike on the counter. That win, forged by clinical finishing from Frederiksen and Prevljak, provides a boost after a bleak run of scoreless results. Defensive lapses have plagued Istra’s campaign but their pressing was markedly sharper in their last outing.

Varazdin’s recent games present a similarly mixed picture. They managed just one win from their last five, but recent results show signs of resilience: a 2-0 win over Vukovar 1991 and two draws against Lokomotiva Zagreb and Hajduk Split, both higher-placed opponents. However, defensive frailties are apparent, as evidenced by their concession of 13 goals in their last five matches. Disciplinary lapses, most notably Mladenovski’s recent red card, have occasionally left them short-handed at the back.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Istra 1961 vs Varazdin stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Istra 1961 the favourite

• Moneyline Istra 1961 2.65 | Varazdin 2.95
• Draw 2.65
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.20 | Under 2.5 1.60
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.77

Of the two, bookmakers see Istra 1961 as slight favorites, though the markets remain nearly even—a testament to just how evenly matched the sides are. The odds reflect the unpredictable nature of this encounter where home advantage for Istra slightly tips the balance, especially given their bounce-back against Rijeka. With both teams prone to low-scoring, tense affairs and direct head-to-head history littered with draws, the value is firmly with the stalemate or a conservative under 2.5 goals bet.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

Possible Starting Lineups

Istra 1961 possible starting eleven

• GK: Franko Kolic
• DF: Advan Kadušić, Marcel Heister, Samuli Miettinen, Filip Taraba
• MF: Josip Radošević, Leo Štulac, Antonio Mauric
• FW: Emil Frederiksen, Smail Prevljak, Silvio Gorican

Coach Oriol Riera has favored the 4-2-3-1, a shape that maximizes defensive coverage while giving latitude to creative outlets. Franko Kolic is undisputed between the posts. The back line blends experience (Heister, Kadušić) with the emergent reliability of Miettinen and Taraba. The double pivot of Radošević and Štulac adds stability in midfield. Up front, Frederiksen’s direct play, Prevljak’s aerial threat, and Gorican’s versatility could give Istra a sharper edge. Frederiksen, in particular, stands out as the player to watch—his capacity to drift between lines creates pockets of chaos Varazdin’s defense may struggle to contain.

Varazdin possible starting eleven

• GK: Oliver Zelenika
• DF: Mario Mladenovski, Antonio Borsic, Luka Skaricic, Sven Lesjak
• MF: Tomislav Duvnjak, Aleksa Latkovic, Mario Marina
• FW: Luka Mamic, Iuri Tavares, Matej Vuk

Coach Nikola Safaric also favors a 4-2-3-1, utilizing a compact back four where Mladenovski’s leadership is pivotal despite his recent red card. Latkovic brings both bite and intelligence to midfield transitions, while the attack is likely spearheaded by Mamic and supported by Vuk’s movement and Tavares’ physicality. Watch for Latkovic’s timed late runs and Vuk’s ability to exploit spaces wide—a combination that has sparked the majority of their recent goals.

Best football betting sites and Bonuses

My take on the Match

While Istra 1961 may be marginally favored on paper, recent history and underlying metrics point to a well-balanced, nerve-ridden contest. With both sides struggling for offensive efficiency and showing defensive improvements in fits and starts, a low-scoring draw or a narrow home edge—especially if Istra replicates their discipline from the Rijeka win—seems the most plausible. My main pick is Draw No Bet: Istra 1961, leaning on their home form and slightly sounder defensive stats.

More useful links for football fans

• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG