Ceuta vs Cadiz Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga 2 2025/26 Match - 28.03.2026

At the historic Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in the heart of Ceuta, La Liga 2’s Regular Season serves up a riveting Spanish clash: tenth-placed Ceuta receives sixteenth-placed Cadiz on March 28, 2026, with kickoff slated for 15:00 CEST. As the league campaign builds toward its pivotal months, both sides find themselves in need of points for very different aims. This fixture encapsulates the high stakes of Spanish second-division football—Ceuta fighting to cement a top-half finish, Cadiz desperate to distance themselves from the relegation battleground. Expect the Murube’s compact stands and raucous home backing to add an extra layer of intensity to a match rich with tactical intrigue.

Two names to spotlight: For Ceuta, forward Marcos Fernández emerges as a focal point—his three goals in the last five matches underline a striker in form and confident in front of goal. Cadiz will look to the creativity and experience of midfielder Álex Fernández, whose passing range and vision dictate the visitors’ build-up. Both are catalysts capable of swinging the game’s momentum.

Of particular note, Ceuta have tallied 15 corner kicks across their previous five matches—demonstrating a clear intent to pressure wide areas and exploit set-piece opportunities.

🏅Best bets for Ceuta vs Cadiz at Thunderpick with a Welcome offer +100% up to 600€💰

Ceuta vs Cadiz predictions

My best bet: Ceuta to win (Moneyline). With Ceuta winning three of their last six fixtures (50 percent), compared to Cadiz’s solitary win in their last five (20 percent overall win rate in 30 days), the home team enjoys clear momentum as well as the psychological edge from a recent run of high-scoring home matches. Their direct, wings-focused attack and set-piece proficiency—highlighted by their corner count—have troubled better defenses than Cadiz’s, which has been porous of late.

Regarding style: Ceuta operate mainly in a 4-2-3-1, prioritizing width and transition play. They have not shied away from physical contests, committing 50 fouls in five games (10 per match) and collecting 7 yellow cards. That physicality translates to a combative edge—sometimes at the cost of discipline, as shown by the single red card picked up recently. Cadiz, in contrast, lean on a 4-4-2, generally offering more midfield presence but have shown defensive frailties and a tendency to concede early under sustained pressure. Their pass accuracy (averaging below 85 percent) and occasionally undisciplined defense (56 fouls, 7 yellow cards) have contributed to a negative goal difference.

Both teams show an inclination for open, attacking play, but Ceuta’s extra cutting edge and home advantage suggest a narrow victory for the North African side.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

Best bets this month available at Thunderpick

Ceuta vs Cadiz Most recent H2Hs

Looking at head-to-heads, the most recent competitive meeting in July’s club friendly saw Ceuta comfortably overcome Cadiz 3-0, controlling midfield exchanges and providing more shots on target. Their league clash ended goalless, but both contests pointed towards Ceuta’s superior organization and control in key moments, especially at home where crowd influence was tangible. These results offer a cautionary tale for Cadiz: Ceuta’s defensive discipline and set-piece threat remain recurring problems for the visitors.

🚨Read our full Ceuta vs Cadiz stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Ceuta have scored 4 goals in their last 5 matches, while Cadiz have managed only 3 in the same stretch.
• Cadiz have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding 9 goals in that run.
• Ceuta’s corners: 15 in 5 matches, top 25 percent in the league.
• Cadiz’s pass accuracy over last 5 games: 83 percent (below league average).
• No red cards for Cadiz in their last 5, despite physical play (56 fouls).
• Ceuta’s Marcos Fernández: 3 goals in last 5 games.

Ceuta vs Cadiz score prediction: 1-0

Expect a tight, competitive duel decided by fine margins. Ceuta’s defensive core, marshaled by the physically imposing Carlos Hernández, provides solidity in front of goalkeeper Pedro López, while Marcos Fernández’s finishing and clever movement have transformed half-chances into goals all season. Cadiz’s difficulties in front of goal may persist, especially away from home—look for Ceuta to edge it, potentially through a Fernández strike, with the support of a noisy Murube crowd proving decisive in closing stages.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Ceuta the favourite

Bookmakers have Ceuta as slight favourites, with a win probability of 42 percent versus 29 percent for Cadiz—a fair reflection of recent form and home-field factor. The market underscores the likelihood of a closely-fought, low-scoring contest, with Under 2.5 goals trading at considerably shorter odds. This aligns with both sides’ struggles to create clear chances and capitalize in the final third, particularly for visiting Cadiz, whose away woes are well-documented this season.

Ceuta vs Cadiz Over/Under Analysis

• Ceuta’s last 3 games: two times Under 2.5, each marked by cagey openings and late goals.
• Cadiz’s last 5: three games Under 2.5, two of which were fruitless attacking displays away from home.
• Neither side recorded a high-scoring league H2H this season.
• Suggested: Under 2.5 goals is the value bet, supported by tactical caution from both managers and recent scoring trends.

Ceuta Preview

Ceuta arrive on the back of a fluctuating run but with notable resilience, having posted wins against Mirandes (1-0) and Cordoba (3-2) but suffering heavy defeats at the hands of Leganes (2-5) and Las Palmas (0-4). The last outing—a narrow 2-5 reverse to Leganes—exposed some defensive frailties, but also saw Ceuta create chances and fight until the final whistle. In the last five matches, their attacking impetus has returned, especially with Marcos Fernández leading the line and the midfield duo of aboubacar bassinga and Marino Illesca adding energy. Set-piece threat, particularly from corners, stands out as both a creative weapon and a potential weakness if over-committed.

Cadiz Preview

For Cadiz, recent form has been less encouraging, with just one win (versus Mirandes, 2-0) in their last five and defeats to Málaga (0-3), Real Zaragoza (0-1), Eibar (1-3), and Real Sociedad B (0-2). The side has often struggled to link midfield to attack, despite the best efforts of Álex Fernández and the pace of Brian Ocampo. Defensively, lapses have been frequent, particularly from set plays and crosses, as seen in the concession of nine goals in five games. Forwards have found service sporadic and rarely translated possession into decisive moments, highlighting a lack of both confidence and structured buildup.

Our prediction: Who Wins?

The prediction from Tips.GG’s expert panel is Ceuta to edge a close contest. Recent momentum, the firepower of Marcos Fernández, and the collective discipline instilled by coach José Juan Romero provide a marginal yet meaningful advantage. Our AI-powered match prediction model gives Ceuta a 44 percent chance to secure victory, with Cadiz holding a 29 percent probability and 27 percent left for a draw.

How to watch Ceuta vs Cadiz

• When? March 28, 2026
• Kick-off time: 15:00 CEST
• Where? Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
• How to watch: Official La Liga 2 broadcast partners, local Spanish TV, or streaming via platform listings
• Favorite: Ceuta

Best football betting sites and Bonuses

More useful links for football fans

• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG