Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction: 30 July 2026 UEFA Conference League

Ludogorets face a serious problem. They lost the first leg 0-2 at home to Hapoel Tel Aviv just over a week ago, which means Thomas Reis’s side must now win by at least three goals at the Huvepharma Arena just to advance without extra time. That’s not an impossible task for a club of Ludogorets’ standing in Bulgarian football, but the numbers from that first leg do not inspire confidence. Hapoel came to Razgrad, controlled the game, and left with a clean sheet. The Israeli side has been unbeaten in their last six matches, collecting three wins and three draws, while Ludogorets dropped a loss in that same stretch alongside four wins and a draw. Kwadwo Duah up front will need to be at his sharpest if the Bulgarians are to have any chance of turning this tie, and in midfield, Aguibou Camara’s ability to drive play forward and dictate tempo could be the difference between a dignified exit and a genuine comeback attempt. On the other side, defender Chico has scored twice in the last two matches for Hapoel and has been one of their most dangerous threats from set pieces, a stat that Ludogorets’ backline cannot afford to ignore.

Hot stat: Hapoel Tel Aviv produced 22 total shots across their last five matches tracked in this data set, compared to just 8 for Ludogorets. That shot volume gap is stark and reflects just how dominant the Israeli side was in the first leg.

Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction

Ludogorets need goals. A lot of them. Facing a two-goal deficit from the first leg, they must push forward from the first whistle, and that creates space Hapoel will look to exploit on the counter. We think the most realistic outcome here is a Ludogorets win on the night, but the aggregate picture still favors Hapoel Tel Aviv advancing. The home side will pour men forward, and Hapoel’s disciplined 4-1-4-1 structure is built precisely to absorb pressure and hit on the break.

Ludogorets averaged just 8 total shots across their last five matches in this dataset, a number that raises real questions about their attacking output when under pressure. Their yellow card count from those games was also notably high at 8, suggesting frustration creeps in when things don’t go their way. Hapoel, by contrast, picked up only 2 yellow cards and generated 22 shots, showing a cleaner, more composed style. The corner kick differential is also worth noting: Hapoel had 8 corners to Ludogorets’ 2, meaning they created far more threatening situations from wide areas. If Ludogorets commit bodies forward and leave gaps, Hapoel’s wide players and set-piece delivery could punish them badly.

We see Ludogorets winning this match, but Hapoel scoring at least once on the counter. That makes both teams to score a reasonable call, and the total goals market leaning over looks sensible given the structural need for Ludogorets to attack relentlessly.

Team Analysis

Ludogorets arrive at this second leg under real pressure, having won four of their last six matches overall but suffering a damaging 0-2 home defeat in the first leg just days ago. Before that, they beat Dunav Ruse 2-0 in domestic action, which at least confirms they can find goals against weaker opposition. Their recent Bulgarian league wins over Lokomotiv Plovdiv, Septemvri Sofia, and Teuta all came by a single goal, reflecting a team that grinds results rather than blows opponents away. The attacking fluency simply has not been there when it matters most, and losing the first leg at home without registering a single goal is a damning sign. Coach Thomas Reis will need a very different performance here, something more direct, more urgent, and more clinical than anything Ludogorets have produced in recent weeks.

Hapoel Tel Aviv head into this second leg in a confident mood. Their 2-0 win in the first leg was no accident. Omri Altman scored twice across the two matches tracked, and the team’s overall shape under Elyaniv Barda looks organized and purposeful. Before that first leg win, Hapoel drew 2-2 with Beitar Jerusalem, drew 0-0 with Banska Bystrica in Europa League qualifying, beat Dunajska Streda 1-0, and edged past Zlin 2-1. Six matches without a defeat. The unbeaten run is built on defensive solidity and the ability to take chances when they come. Playing with a two-goal lead away from home, they have every reason to sit deep, stay compact, and make Ludogorets work for every inch.

🚨Check out our dedicated Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Ludogorets the Favourite

• Moneyline Ludogorets 1.77 | Hapoel Tel Aviv 4.30
• Draw 3.90
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The bookmakers make Ludogorets the clear favorite on the night at around 1.77, which makes sense given home advantage and the aggregate deficit forcing them to attack. But the odds on Hapoel at 4.30 look a touch generous for a side that already beat this Ludogorets team 2-0 just days ago. The draw at 3.90 is also interesting: if Hapoel score once and Ludogorets cannot find three, a draw on the night still sends the Israeli side through. Honestly, the value play here might be on Hapoel or the draw given how comfortably they handled the first leg. The market is pricing in a Ludogorets reaction that their shot numbers and recent attacking output do not fully support.

Possible Starting Lineups

Ludogorets Possible Starting Eleven

Ludogorets have been lining up in a 4-2-3-1 recently, but the aggregate situation may push Reis toward something more attack-minded, perhaps a 4-2-3-1 with Bile and Duah both pushed high. Hendrik Bonmann gets the nod in goal based on playing time data, with Sergio Padt as backup. Petar Stanic has been a consistent presence in midfield across the last two matches, logging the full 180 minutes, and his energy in the press will be important. Kwadwo Duah is the player Ludogorets fans will be watching most closely; the team needs him to be decisive in the final third in a way he has not been recently. Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz and Alberto Salido Tejero offer options from the bench if more attacking impetus is needed later in the game.

Hapoel Tel Aviv Possible Starting Eleven

Hapoel’s 4-1-4-1 gives them a solid defensive base, and Assaf Tzur has been dependable between the sticks across both legs. Chico is the standout name here. Two goals from a defensive position in two matches, plus two yellow cards, paints the picture of a player who is aggressive, influential, and dangerous from set pieces. Andrian Kraev has been nearly ever-present in midfield at 176 minutes, and his ability to screen and recycle possession will be key to keeping Ludogorets at arm’s length. Omri Altman leads the line and has shown a sharp instinct for goal. If Hapoel get one chance on the counter, he is the man most likely to take it.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

TipsGG Match Prediction

This is a difficult match to predict with confidence, and maybe that is the most honest thing to say upfront. Ludogorets need to score three goals against a team that kept a clean sheet against them a week ago and has not lost in six matches. The home side will attack, they have to, but their shot output and attacking efficiency in recent games does not suggest they are suddenly going to produce a three-goal performance. Hapoel’s defensive structure, the low yellow card count, and the high shot output from the first leg all point to a team that is tactically prepared and mentally settled going into this second leg.

We think Ludogorets will score, the pressure and crowd will force something, but Hapoel will get at least one goal on the counter, which effectively ends the tie as a contest. A 2-1 or 2-2 scoreline on the night feels most plausible. Both teams to score at yes and total goals over 2.5 are the picks we back with most confidence. The Hapoel Tel Aviv to score in the second half tip also carries real value given the likely shape of the match: Ludogorets pushing for goals, gaps opening, and Hapoel’s attackers ready to punish.

More useful links for football fans

• Gamble Responsibly
• Best Football Betting Websites
• How to Bet On Sports
• Sports Betting Glossary
• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG