Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction: 22.02.2026 English Premier League

This North London Derby arrives with dramatically divergent stakes. Tottenham, struggling to maintain consistency this season, find themselves languishing in 16th, far removed from their usual top-six aspirations. Arsenal, meanwhile, continue their electric campaign under Mikel Arteta, clinging to the Premier League’s summit and chasing silverware. Yet, with derbies, form often takes a back seat. The curious twist here? Spurs have managed only 2 wins in their last 11, yet they’re unbeaten at home against Arsenal in their last three league encounters—food for thought as both managers plot their strategies.

Arsenal’s midfield dynamo Declan Rice will be instrumental not just in ball retention but also in dictating the tempo, a trait Spurs have struggled to nullify this term. For Tottenham, Dominic Solanke’s knack for poaching goals could be their best hope of disruption against arguably the league’s most disciplined backline. While defensive resilience will be key, much could turn on who better capitalises on transition play.

Hot stat: Arsenal boast a remarkable 64 percent win rate in 2026 so far and have only lost once in their last 14 matches, underscoring their consistency at both ends of the pitch.

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Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction

The best value here lies in supporting Arsenal for the win. The Gunners have simply been a cut above for consistency and defensive solidity, with just 20 goals conceded this season, while Tottenham have frequently found themselves overrun in midfield and are leaking goals at a worrying rate. Arsenal’s well-structured 4-2-3-1 is both fluid and defensively robust. Expect them to set the tempo, with Saka and Martinelli exploiting Spurs’ vulnerable flanks. The value on Arsenal, even as away favourites, is propped up by their recent form and the extraordinary gap in defensive metrics between the sides.

Both teams have a penchant for attacking football, but Tottenham’s lack of control in midfield (averaging over 10 yellow cards in the last five matches) could see them become their own worst enemy. Arsenal, conversely, have shown discipline, both in ball retention (league-high pass accuracy at over 86 percent) and defensive positioning, while also leading the Premier League for corners won this campaign. Expect Arsenal to control possession (averaging 2,040 passes in their last five) and press aggressively.

Team Analysis

Tottenham remain a conundrum under Igor Tudor. Their last match, a 1-2 defeat to Newcastle, epitomised their season—a spirited effort but ultimately not enough. Solanke’s eye for goal remains their biggest threat, but issues in transition and a leaky backline persist. Across the last five, Spurs have scored seven but conceded at least once in each, and discipline remains an issue: 10 yellows and a single red card in that spell show how easily their shape collapses under pressure. Tottenham will look to find rhythm through quick switches and direct play, especially with Udogie’s overlapping runs from deep, but will need solidity from Bissouma in the engine room if they are to have a foothold.

Arsenal have powered through an up-and-down schedule, most recently held to a 2-2 draw by Wolves. Mikel Arteta’s side, however, has exhibited impressive adaptability—rotating efficiently between pressing high and settling into a measured build-up. Their passing accuracy (over 86 percent across five games) allows them to suffocate teams in possession, while the balance between Rice and Odegaard keeps the midfield ticking over. Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyökeres have added bite up front: 4 goals between them in 5 matches. Discipline is a hallmark; just six yellows and no reds in the last five indicate composure under pressure—a contrast that could prove crucial in derby intensity.

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🚨Read our full Tottenham vs Arsenal stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Arsenal the favourite

• Moneyline Tottenham 6.20 | Arsenal 1.59
• Draw 4.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.83 | Under 2.5 2.00
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.78 | No 2.05

The odds reflect Arsenal’s current status as title contenders and Tottenham’s struggles. Arsenal’s 1.59 price is short but justified: they lead the league with disciplined defending and efficient attack. Tottenham’s odds (6.20) highlight both their underdog status and inconsistency. While derbies can spring surprises, the disparity in form, table position, and underlying stats offers little to suggest Spurs can upset their rivals. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS also carry value, bearing in mind both teams’ attacking intent and recent defensive lapses.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Tottenham possible starting eleven

Spurs look set to stick with their familiar 3-4-2-1, which offers width through Udogie and Romero but often leaves space for pacey counters. Vicario returns to anchor the backline, while Bissouma and Sarr provide industry in midfield. Solanke leads the line, ably supported by Odobert’s movement and Kolo Muani’s direct running. The side relies on quick transitions and overlapping runs, especially down the left, but their compactness will be tested by Arsenal’s fluid attack. Watch for Simons, whose creativity in tight spaces could unlock Arsenal’s high press if given room.

Arsenal possible starting eleven

Arteta’s 4-2-3-1 will feature a physically dominant and technically astute back four, shielded by Rice’s tactical awareness and Zubimendi’s intelligent distribution. In attack, Saka and Martinelli will cut inside to create overloads, with Gyökeres looking to make incisive runs off the shoulder. Eze’s vision behind the striker adds a layer of unpredictability. Expect high pressing and ball retention to frustrate Spurs, while Arsenal’s rotations in midfield give them the upper hand in shaping the match tempo.

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My take on the Match

Given the gulf in both consistency and form, my main pick is an Arsenal victory with a one-goal cushion at minimum. Spurs carry the chaos factor of a young, transitional side prone to lapses—particularly when defending set pieces or chasing the game. Arsenal, by contrast, are ruthlessly efficient, moving the ball with purpose and rarely allowing opponents into dangerous spaces. If Tottenham are to spring a surprise, it’ll come from set pieces or a Solanke moment—but all roads point to Arsenal tightening their grip at the top, possibly with goals at both ends. We could well be witnessing another marker laid down on their way to a much-anticipated title challenge.

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