Rafael Nogueira
Santos host Chapecoense at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in a Série A fixture that looks straightforward on paper, but carries a small sting: Chapecoense beat Santos 2-4 in the reverse fixture earlier this season, making this a potential revenge outing for Cuca’s side. Santos sit 16th on 21 points, fighting to avoid the drop zone, while Chapecoense are rooted to the bottom of the table with just 9 points from 19 games. Álvaro Barreal has been Santos’s most direct attacking threat in recent matches, registering a goal and three interceptions across his last two appearances. For Chapecoense, Yannick Bolasie leads the forward line and carries the most creative load, though his five shots across two games have yielded nothing so far.
Hot stat: Chapecoense have scored zero goals across their last two league matches and have managed just 23 total shots over their last five games, the lowest output in this fixture by a significant margin.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
Santos vs Chapecoense Prediction
Santos are the clear pick here. They have won two of their last three matches, scored five goals across their last five games, and face a Chapecoense side that has conceded 39 goals in 19 league appearances this season. The gap in quality is reflected in the standings, and Santos have a genuine incentive to win as they try to climb away from the relegation zone.
Santos operate in a 4-3-2-1 structure, moving the ball with reasonable efficiency at around 84% pass accuracy across their last five games. They commit relatively few fouls (19 in five matches) and stay compact, which keeps them from giving away dangerous set pieces. Chapecoense, by contrast, rack up 26 fouls across the same window and average just 67% pass accuracy, suggesting they will struggle to retain possession and will spend large portions of this match defending. With Santos generating 39 total shots in five games compared to Chapecoense’s 23, the volume of pressure on Rafael Santos in goal should be considerable. We predict Santos to win this comfortably, with Chapecoense unlikely to find a way through a Santos defense that has tightened up noticeably in recent weeks.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Santos to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Santos have picked up two wins from their last three matches, showing the kind of form a team in their league position needs. Their most recent outing was a 1-2 loss to Botafogo RJ, a side in the top half of the table, which is not a damaging result in context. Before that, Santos beat Universidad Central de Venezuela 4-1 in what was a convincing attacking display. Looking at the wider five-match window, Santos have scored in every game and registered 39 shots, showing they are capable of sustained offensive output. Rony, Gabriel Menino, and Thaciano have all contributed goals recently, giving Cuca multiple attacking options beyond just the main striker.
Chapecoense arrive in poor shape. Their last two Série A fixtures ended in a 0-4 defeat to Flamengo and a 0-2 loss to Bahia, with zero goals scored and six conceded across those two games. Their only positive result in recent memory was a 2-1 win over Gremio, sandwiched between those heavy losses. The 7-5 win over Avai earlier in the month looks like an anomaly given their defensive record of 39 goals conceded in 19 league games. Rafael Lacerda’s side simply cannot keep clean sheets, and their attack has gone quiet at the worst possible time.
🚨Check out our dedicated Santos vs Chapecoense stats page for more info.
The three previous meetings between these sides tell an interesting story. Chapecoense have actually come out ahead in two of the three encounters, including a 4-2 win earlier this Série A season and a 3-2 win in the 2024 Série B. Santos took the other fixture 1-0. The bookmakers heavily favored Chapecoense in that earlier Série B game (Santos at just 22%), so the 2-4 result this season was not entirely out of nowhere. That said, Chapecoense’s current form and league position make a repeat very unlikely.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Santos the Favourite
- Moneyline Santos 1.40 | Chapecoense 7.60
- Draw 4.50
The moneyline odds around 1.38-1.46 for Santos reflect the bookmakers’ consensus of roughly 67% win probability, which aligns with the form and table position gap between these sides. The draw at around 4.33-4.68 and Chapecoense at 6.20-8.00 price in just how unlikely an upset is. To be honest, the Santos odds are short, but given Chapecoense’s goal drought and defensive fragility, backing Santos to win and score multiple goals looks like the most logical approach.
Possible Starting Lineups
Santos Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Gabriel Brazão
- DF: Gonzalo Escobar, Lucas Veríssimo, Luan Peres, João Ananias
- MF: Christian Oliva, Gabriel Menino, Thaciano
- FW: Álvaro Barreal, Benjamín Rollheiser, Rony
Santos are likely to line up in their preferred 4-3-2-1, with Gabriel Brazão as first-choice goalkeeper after accumulating the most minutes in recent fixtures. Lucas Veríssimo and Gonzalo Escobar form a reliable central defensive pairing. In midfield, Christian Oliva stands out with 111 passes and one assist across two games, providing the engine in the center. Álvaro Barreal is the player to watch in the final third, combining goals, assists, and defensive work rate, and he should cause Chapecoense’s defense considerable problems.
Chapecoense Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Matheus Aurélio Palhares Guimarães
- DF: Rafael Thyere, Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski, Bruno Pacheco, Everton Souza da Cruz
- MF: Camilo Reijers de Oliveira, Giovanni Augusto, Vinicius Balieiro, David Antunes da Silva
- FW: Yannick Bolasie, Neto Pessoa
Chapecoense are expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1 setup. Matheus Aurélio Palhares Guimarães takes the gloves after logging seven saves across two matches. Rafael Thyere anchors the defense with three interceptions in two games, the highest of any outfield player in their recent squad. Camilo Reijers de Oliveira is perhaps their most disciplined midfielder with seven interceptions, giving them some structural protection. Up front, Yannick Bolasie carries the most attacking threat but has been largely ineffective in front of goal recently.
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Santos. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Santos should win this match at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Chapecoense have not scored in their last two league games, concede at a rate of more than two goals per match across the season, and carry the worst defensive record in the division with 39 goals against. Santos have the firepower, the home advantage, and the motivation of a relegation battle to drive them forward. We predict a Santos win with over 2.5 goals in the match, and we do not expect Chapecoense to trouble the scoreboard. Santos to score in both halves is also a market worth considering given how deep Chapecoense will likely sit and the volume of chances Santos create from wide positions.
