Levi Rothermund
Two sides locked together in the Bundesliga standings will meet at the MHP Arena as Stuttgart take on Bayer Leverkusen. Both are on 58 points, sitting 4th and 5th, and this clash may well define Champions League qualification. The bookies make Stuttgart slight favourites at home, but there’s little between the sides on paper or form. One fascinating subplot—Patrik Schick, Leverkusen’s sharpest weapon lately, faces a Stuttgart backline that’s conceded more than their rivals. On Stuttgart’s side, Chris Führich, with 3 goals in his last 5, continues to be a spark up front.
Hot stat: Patrik Schick has scored 6 goals in his last 5 matches, the standout streak for either team.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2025/26 Regular Season (Germany) |
| 🏟 Venue: | MHP Arena, Stuttgart |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
We think both teams find the net, but the sharp edge goes to Stuttgart at home. The Swabians have outscored Leverkusen over their last five games (12 goals to 8), while Leverkusen’s defense, usually steady, has slipped. Both sides have identical win/draw/loss records in the league, and Stuttgart’s home scoring record gives them a nudge. Ball movement has been slick for both, but Stuttgart allow more fouls and accumulate slightly more yellow cards. Expect a high-tempo match, with both midfields pushing forward and pressing hard. This could mean extra set pieces, and probably more cards.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 3.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Stuttgart commit more fouls (50 in last 5 games vs Leverkusen’s 34) and receive an equal number of yellow cards (7 each), indicating both aggression and a risk of stoppages. Leverkusen, however, make more passes (2482 vs 2220), and enjoy higher pass accuracy (89% vs 84%), so they may control possession spells. Corners are plentiful for both (Stuttgart 39, Leverkusen 32 in last 5), and with both teams’ pressing and direct approach, the set-piece count should be high.
Team Analysis
Stuttgart’s last game, a 3-3 home draw with Hoffenheim, showcased their unpredictability. They netted 12 goals in the last 5, but also conceded plenty. Führich is pivotal, and Bilal El Khannouss’s creative spark (3 assists) is vital in transition. The side scores, but gaps at the back persist.
Bayer Leverkusen beat RB Leipzig 4-1 in their latest, with Schick bagging a brace. The team blends control with rapid transitions. Leverkusen’s 8 goals in 5 is a drop from earlier in the campaign, but Schick’s form compensates. They’ve tightened up after a dip, and midfield control remains a strong point, thanks to Exequiel Palacios and Aleix García.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
| Total shots | 97 | 82 |
| Free kicks | 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks | 39 | 32 |
| Total fouls | 50 | 34 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 84% | 89% |
| Interceptions | 39 | 39 |
| Offsides | 12 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Stuttgart the favourite
- Moneyline Stuttgart 2.22 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.04
- Draw 4.21
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.73 | Under 2.5 2.15
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.57 | No 2.35
Stuttgart are favoured at home, but the odds suggest the gap is slim. The over 2.5 goals market sits at 1.73, highlighting expectations for an open contest, while both teams scoring is a strong bet at 1.57. Draw odds at 4.21 hint that bookies expect a winner here. Honestly, Leverkusen’s price looks tempting for value punters, especially with Schick’s current run.
Possible Starting Lineups
Stuttgart possible starting eleven
- GK: Alexander Nübel
- DF: Maximilian Mittelstädt, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot, Josha Vagnoman
- MF: Atakan Karazor, Angelo Stiller, Bilal El Khannouss, Ramon Hendriks
- FW: Chris Führich, Ermedin Demirović
Stuttgart’s 3-4-2-1 system looks settled, with Nübel in goal providing stability. Mittelstädt and Zagadou anchor the defense, with Chabot and Vagnoman supporting. Karazor and Stiller offer balance in midfield, while El Khannouss brings creativity. Führich and Demirović are the attacking threats; Führich’s recent form stands out. Expect width from the wing-backs and late runs from midfield.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting eleven
- GK: Janis Blaswich
- DF: Edmond Tapsoba, Loic Bade, Jarell Quansah
- MF: Exequiel Palacios, Alejandro Grimaldo, Aleix García, Nathan Tella
- FW: Patrik Schick, Robert Andrich, Ibrahim Maza
Leverkusen also stick to a 3-4-2-1, with Blaswich between the posts. Tapsoba and Bade anchor a back three. In midfield, Palacios and García will be key for ball retention, with Grimaldo and Tella pushing wide. Schick, up front, is in superb touch, and Andrich adds drive from deeper positions. Maza is a wildcard in support. Formation mirrors Stuttgart’s, so expect a tactical battle.
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Stuttgart. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think both teams score, but the home edge leans us toward Stuttgart. Schick’s form for Leverkusen is a problem, though, and his goal streak can’t be ignored. A draw wouldn’t shock, yet with both attacks in good shape and defenses occasionally leaking, we see a high-scoring match. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score look the best plays. Maybe Stuttgart edge it, but we’d avoid the full-time result for big stakes.
