Alex MacQuoid
Ajax welcome Burnley to the Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam for a pre-season International Club Friendly on 26 July 2026. Míchel’s side have been reasonably active this summer, playing five matches in the last 30 days and picking up three wins alongside a draw and a defeat. Burnley, managed by Mike Jackson, have had a far quieter and more troubled run, with three games in the same period producing zero wins. What makes this fixture genuinely interesting is the contrast in trajectories — Ajax are clearly building toward something, while Burnley’s pre-season has been bleak by almost any measure.
Two players worth watching closely for Ajax are Oscar Gloukh and Steven Berghuis. Gloukh has featured in all five recent matches, contributing a goal and an assist with 13 total shots and consistent involvement in build-up play. Berghuis, playing as a forward, has 11 shots across five appearances and also found the net once. Both are central to how Ajax move the ball and create chances under Míchel’s system.
Hot stat: Ajax have scored 8 goals across their last five matches while recording 86 total shots and 33 corner kicks — that’s an average of over 6.5 corners per game, a number that stands out and shapes how we approach the corners market here.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 — July Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 14:00 CEST |
Ajax vs Burnley Prediction
Ajax are the clear favourites here. They are playing at home, have a functioning squad with recognisable patterns of play, and have been winning games recently. Burnley, on the other hand, have lost two of their last three and have not won a single match in that stretch. Their last three pre-season outings ended in a 1-4 loss to Real Salt Lake, a 1-1 draw with Columbus Crew, and a 1-3 defeat to FC Cincinnati. That is not a team with momentum.
Stylistically, Ajax lean on a 4-2-3-1 shape, which allows them to press high and recycle possession through the midfield. Their pass volume is substantial — over 2,800 passes in five matches — and their accuracy sits comfortably above 88% when comparing passes attempted to completed. They commit fouls (61 across five games) but rarely pick up cards, suggesting disciplined rather than reckless pressing. Burnley’s detail stats are unavailable for recent games, so we can’t draw direct comparisons, but their results alone suggest a team that is not yet competitive at this level of opposition.
We think an Ajax win is the most sensible call. With the corner volume Ajax produce and the pressure they tend to apply in home friendlies, the over on corners is genuinely attractive. Both teams to score is harder to back given Burnley’s goal drought — they’ve managed just 3 goals in their last 3 matches, all against MLS opposition, while conceding 8.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ajax to win & over 1.5 goals in first half |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Ajax go into this match having won their last two games. Their most recent outing was a 4-1 victory over Vojvodina, a result that followed a narrow 1-0 win against Olympiacos. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Bochum and edged past AEK Larnaca 1-0. The one blemish in recent weeks was a 1-3 home loss to Panathinaikos, which was the kind of result that can happen in pre-season when rotations are heavy. Across the last 30 days, Ajax have won 3 of 5, and their year-long record of 12 wins from 29 games reflects a team that is inconsistent over a full calendar but capable of good spells. The squad Míchel has been using features a solid core — Maarten Paes in goal, Aaron Bouwman and Owen Wijndal anchoring the defensive shape, with Youri Regeer providing rhythm in midfield. Don-Angelo Konadu has also chipped in with a goal from forward positions.
Burnley’s pre-season has been difficult. Their last three matches all ended in defeat or draw: a 1-4 loss to Real Salt Lake, a 1-1 draw with Columbus Crew, and a 1-3 defeat to FC Cincinnati. Go back further and the picture doesn’t improve — they lost to Arsenal 0-1 and drew 1-1 with Wolves earlier in the summer. That’s two wins from 24 matches across the whole year, a 8% win rate that honestly tells you everything you need to know about where this team currently sits. Mike Jackson has a significant rebuilding job on his hands, and a trip to Amsterdam against a Dutch side playing at home is not where you’d want to be with this form.
🚨Check out our dedicated Ajax vs Burnley stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax the favourite
No pre-game odds were available from bookmakers at the time of writing for this fixture. Given the form gap between the two sides — Ajax winning 60% of their last 30-day matches versus Burnley’s 0% — the market would likely price Ajax as heavy favourites. A home win at short odds would reflect the reality of this matchup. We’d expect draw odds to sit somewhere in the range that makes them unattractive given how dominant Ajax have looked going forward, and Burnley at any price looks like a difficult proposition to back with any conviction given their run of results.
Possible Starting Lineups
Ajax possible starting eleven
- GK: Maarten Paes
- DF: Anton Gaaei, Aaron Bouwman, Lucas Oliveira Rosa, Owen Wijndal
- MF: Youri Regeer, Jorthy Mokio, Oscar Gloukh
- FW: Steven Berghuis, Don-Angelo Konadu, Mika Godts
Míchel has been rotating fairly heavily across pre-season, but the names above represent the players with the most appearances and the most consistent involvement in Ajax’s last five games. Maarten Paes has started four of the five matches and is clearly the first-choice goalkeeper. Aaron Bouwman has played every minute across all five games — a remarkable 356 minutes — which signals his importance to the defensive structure. In midfield, Youri Regeer and Oscar Gloukh are the most reliable creative contributors, with Gloukh’s goal and assist making him the standout attacking midfielder. Davy Klaassen is a strong option off the bench if Míchel wants more experience in the engine room. A 4-2-3-1 is the expected shape, consistent with their recent pattern.
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Burnley. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Honestly, this one doesn’t feel particularly close on paper. Ajax are at home, have scored 8 goals in their last five matches, and are producing an average of more than 17 shots per game. Burnley have failed to win any of their last three pre-season outings and have conceded 8 goals in those same games. The 4-1 win over Vojvodina in Ajax’s last match showed they can be clinical when the opposition drops off, and Burnley — without reliable data suggesting otherwise — look like they could be in for a long afternoon.
We think Ajax win comfortably, most likely by two or more goals. The corners market is maybe the best value angle here given Ajax’s consistent pressure and wide play through Godts and Berghuis. Over 9.5 corners at a decent price makes sense. Both teams to score is a no from us — Burnley’s attack has looked toothless across the entire pre-season, and there’s no evidence that changes against a defensively solid Ajax side at the Johan Cruijff Arena.
