Sofia Quijada
Lanus open their Clausura campaign at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus against a San Lorenzo side that comes in on the back of a wild 5-6 loss to Deportivo Riestra. Mauricio Pellegrino’s men won their only match in the last 30 days, while Néstor Gorosito’s squad lost theirs, and the bookmakers reflect that gap clearly with Lanus priced as heavy favourites at home. The interesting angle here is that the last two head-to-head meetings have both gone to Lanus, including a 3-2 win in the Apertura earlier this season, so Gorosito will need a sharp tactical response to avoid a third straight defeat in this fixture.
Keep an eye on Eduardo Salvio for Lanus, who logged 86 minutes in the last outing and draws fouls effectively with two committed against him in that match. For San Lorenzo, Rodrigo Auzmendi is the primary threat with five total shots in the last game, the highest of any San Lorenzo player, and he will test Lanus’s backline on the counter.
Hot stat: San Lorenzo attempted 19 free kicks in their last match compared to Lanus’s 10, yet scored zero from set pieces. That volume without return points to a side struggling to convert pressure into goals.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Argentine Primera Division 2026, Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Lanus vs San Lorenzo Prediction
Lanus are the clear pick here. They hold a 43% win rate across 28 matches this year against San Lorenzo’s 26% from 27 outings, and Pellegrino’s 4-2-3-1 setup at home gives them a structural advantage over Gorosito’s 3-4-3, which relies on wide aggression that Lanus’s double pivot can neutralize. The three most recent head-to-head results all produced a Lanus win or draw, and San Lorenzo’s defence just shipped six goals in their last competitive fixture. The value is firmly on a Lanus win.
Lanus averaged 10 fouls and 4 yellow cards in their last five matches, showing a physical but disciplined approach. San Lorenzo commit 11 fouls per game on average and carry a more reckless edge, which should generate set-piece opportunities for the hosts. Lanus’s pass accuracy sits at 375 from 472 passes compared to San Lorenzo’s 343 from 443, meaning the home side moves the ball cleaner and faster. That passing superiority in a home fixture against a leaky defence makes a low-to-moderate goal total plausible, with Lanus doing the bulk of the scoring.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lanus to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 1.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Lanus arrive in reasonable shape despite a mixed extended run. Over their last five matches, they have recorded wins against Cienciano (2-0) and Mirassol (1-0), but suffered losses to Instituto de Córdoba (1-2), LDU Quito (0-2), and Argentinos Juniors (0-2). The defeats came against opponents with strong recent form, while the wins showed Lanus are capable of clean, efficient performances. Their most recent match, the 2-0 win over Cienciano, is the form line that matters most heading into this Clausura opener.
San Lorenzo’s recent record is concerning for their supporters. Their last five matches produced a dramatic 5-6 loss to Deportivo Riestra, a 0-1 defeat to Recoleta, a 2-2 draw with Santos, a 5-6 loss to River Plate, and a 0-0 draw with Deportivo Cuenca. Two heavy defeats, two draws, and one narrow loss against Recoleta tell the story of a side that can score but cannot keep the ball out of their own net. Conceding 13 goals across three of those five matches is an alarming defensive record ahead of a road trip to a confident Lanus outfit.
🚨Check out our dedicated Lanus vs San Lorenzo stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Lanus the Favourite
- Moneyline Lanus 1.95 | San Lorenzo 4.75
- Draw 2.90
The market lines Lanus between 1.91 and 2.05 depending on the bookmaker, with Pinnacle and 888starz offering the top end at 2.05. The bookmakers’ implied probability of 48% for a Lanus win feels conservative given San Lorenzo’s defensive record and form. We see Lanus at roughly 55-60% chance of winning, making the 2.05 available at several books a genuine value play. San Lorenzo at 4.75 with bet365 reflects their poor recent results accurately and is not worth chasing.
Possible Starting Lineups
Lanus Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nahuel Hernan Losada
- DF: Carlos Izquierdoz, Sasha Julian Marcich, Tomás Guidara, José Canale
- MF: Diego Agustín Medina, Agustín Cardozo, Franco Nahuel Watson, Ramiro Carrera
- FW: Eduardo Salvio, Yoshan Valois
Pellegrino is expected to line up in his preferred 4-2-3-1. Carlos Izquierdoz anchors the backline with three interceptions in the last outing and brings leadership to the defensive unit. Agustín Cardozo sits deep with 73 passes in the last match and controls the tempo, while Franco Watson and Ramiro Carrera offer goal threat from midfield, having both scored in the most recent fixture. Eduardo Salvio operates as the number ten and remains the most creative force in the side.
San Lorenzo Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Facundo Altamirano
- DF: Nicolás Tripichio, Ezequiel Herrera, Mathías de Ritis
- MF: Ignacio Perruzzi Ambrosini, Gonzalo Abrego, Facundo Gulli, Alexis Cuello
- FW: Rodrigo Auzmendi, Matías Reali, Facundo Bruera
Gorosito’s 3-4-3 asks a lot of the wide forwards, and Alexis Cuello on the right will be his primary outlet. Mathías de Ritis provided the only assist in the last match and is the most technically active defender in this setup. Rodrigo Auzmendi leads the attacking line with five shots in the last game, and Matías Reali added the goal. Facundo Altamirano in goal made four saves against Riestra, which at least shows he is active, but the defence in front of him is too open for a road game of this nature.
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Lanus. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Lanus win this match. Their home record, superior passing structure, and San Lorenzo’s catastrophic defensive form across the last five games all point in one direction. San Lorenzo have conceded 13 goals in three of those five matches, and facing a Lanus side that has now beaten them in both meetings this year is a tough ask. We predict a 2-0 home win, with Lanus to win to nil as the standout bet at available odds around 2.05. The corner market is also worth noting: San Lorenzo racked up 14 corners in their last game and Lanus generated 7, so over 8.5 corners in this fixture looks well-supported by both teams’ recent tendencies.
