Groningen vs Ajax Prediction: 07.03.2026 Eredivisie

With Groningen set to host Ajax at the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium, we witness two sides striving to reverse recent fortunes in contrasting ways. Groningen, stuck in a worrying losing streak, is desperate for a turnaround under Dick Lukkien. Ajax, meanwhile, have found themselves drawing far too often – but remain solidly in the top three. While this isn’t your classic title-decider, it’s no less intriguing: both teams face pivotal mid-season challenges, and the hints of reinvention visible in recent formations promise a fascinating tactical battle.
Watch for Younes Taha El Idrissi, whose directness up front for Groningen offers a rare spark, and Ajax’s lively forward Mika Godts, consistently on the scoresheet of late. The midfield’s engine will be tested, especially with Rayane Bounida’s growing creativity for Ajax.
Hot stat? Ajax have lost just three times in 25 Eredivisie matches this year, but their eleven draws are the highest among the top six — a curious trend that shapes both their mentality and approach here.

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Groningen vs Ajax prediction

The best value in this fixture appears to be supporting Ajax on the Asian Handicap (0), given not just the difference in squad quality, but both sides’ recent patterns: while Groningen have lost their last five and struggled for both goals (five in their last five) and defensive solidity, Ajax have lost just once in twelve – though they’re irritatingly prone to sharing the spoils.
Ajax’s approach under Fred Grim this season has been meticulous, if at times unadventurous. They boast a high pass completion rate (84 percent recently), fewer yellow cards than Groningen, and control more of the midfield tempo. Their ball progression is methodical, which explains the frequency of draws, but against a leaky Groningen defence, expect more assertiveness.
Groningen rely more heavily on physical battles – 39 fouls in the last five matches compared to Ajax’s 38, but have also been less disciplined, collecting more bookings. Both sides see plenty of the ball, but Ajax’s ability to intercept and disrupt play (averaging 6.4 interceptions per match recently) gives them the edge.
This match could pivot on Ajax seizing one or two big chances while keeping things relatively tight at the back. Groningen’s risk-taking may result in a goal, but their brittle defensive record makes it unlikely they’ll keep Ajax at bay.

Team Analysis

Groningen recent matches:
Groningen’s form is, in a word, dire. Five consecutive defeats, most recently falling 2-3 at home to Volendam, reflect not just bad luck but a side lacking both conviction and composure. Volendam, only marginally better in the table, capitalised on spaces Groningen left in transition. Despite spirited performances from Younes Taha El Idrissi (two goals in four appearances) and the creativity from Stije Resink, the lack of cohesion in defence (conceding nine in five) and general sloppiness under pressure underline their problems.
Groningen’s lack of bite and inability to manage tight games have left them vulnerable, even at their own ground.

Ajax recent matches:
Ajax arrive in Groningen on a robust but slightly frustrating run – their last five saw four draws and just one win, the 4-1 dismantling of Sittard. A 0-0 at PEC Zwolle typified Ajax’s issues: lots of possession and shots, but a lack of ruthlessness in finishing. Mika Godts remains their most potent threat (three goals in four), and Rayane Bounida is growing into an influential creator.
Fred Grim’s side do look more controlled and less error-prone than earlier in the campaign, and their ability to manage games – even if draws remain too frequent – suggests a strong baseline that Groningen may struggle to shake.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Groningen vs Ajax stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax the favourite

• Moneyline Groningen 2.70-2.80 | Ajax 2.34-2.43
• Draw 3.50-3.77
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.70 | Under 2.5 2.05
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.66 | No 2.11

Ajax come in marginally favoured, and the odds reflect both the deeper talent in their squad and Groningen’s rotten form. A raft of recent draws dents confidence in a straight Ajax win, so the value creeps towards either a Draw No Bet or a play on goals: Groningen’s leaky defence and Ajax’s attacking depth hint at a scoreline over 2.5. Given both sides’ tendency to concede, both teams to score is also a viable angle.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Groningen possible starting eleven

Groningen will likely stick with their recent 4-3-3, with Etienne Vaessen offering solidity in goal. The defence, despite poor form, features regulars like Blokzijl and Mercera, both critical in breaking up play. In midfield, the energy of Resink and Tygo Land will be relied upon to press Ajax’s playmakers. Up front, Taha El Idrissi’s eye for goal and van Bergen’s direct running are key for any chance of an upset. Expect a focus on counter-play, with width supplied by van Bergen and Taha El Idrissi. Formation: 4-3-3.

Ajax possible starting eleven

Ajax’s 4-4-2 shape grants balance between control and cutting edge. With Maarten Paes between the posts, the backline offers stability – Baas in particular has been a consistent presence. Rayane Bounida, whose touch and decision-making in the middle continue to improve, will link up with the energetic Fitz Jim and Mokio. Up top, Godts is the form man and will look to profit from Dolberg’s hold-up play and Weghorst’s aerial threat. The team’s technical quality should see them dominate ball possession. Formation: 4-4-2.

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My take on the Match

If Groningen are to escape their spiral, it’ll take far more steel than they’ve shown – but for us, Ajax simply hold too many cards. Their passing, tactical awareness, and resurgence of Mika Godts prove decisive. Expect goals – both sides have frailties at the back – but when push comes to shove, Ajax’s extra quality in both penalty areas gives them an edge. My punt? Ajax Draw No Bet, with a side order of over 2.5 goals for the thrill-seekers.

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