Sofia Quijada
Arsenal travel to Estadi Montilivi to face Girona in a pre-season friendly on August 1, 2026. Mikel Arteta’s side arrives on the back of a heavy 4-5 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, which will add some extra edge to this fixture despite its non-competitive nature. Girona, under Quique Álvarez, have been inconsistent across their last several outings, and a 3-3 draw with Castellón in their most recent game summed up the defensive looseness that has followed them through pre-season. These two sides did meet competitively before — Arsenal won 2-1 at the Estadi Montilivi in the UEFA Champions League 2024/25 League Phase, a result that gives Arteta’s squad a psychological edge on familiar territory.
On the Arsenal side, Bukayo Saka remains one of the most dangerous wide threats in European football, and his ability to cut inside and create in tight spaces will be a real test for Girona’s defensive shape. For the home side, keep an eye on their attacking midfield presence — Girona’s best moments in pre-season have come from quick transitions, and whoever occupies the number ten role will be key to unlocking Arsenal’s defensive structure.
Hot stat: Arsenal have won their last four pre-season and competitive matches before the PSG result, each by a single goal — showing a pattern of grinding out narrow victories rather than comfortable wins.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadi Montilivi, Girona |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Girona vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal are clear favourites at 50% implied probability from bookmakers, and the odds across the board reflect that — with the best available price sitting around 1.91 on Arsenal to win. Given the context of this match, that value looks reasonable. Arsenal’s squad depth and tactical organisation under Arteta remain superior, and even in a friendly setting, they have shown enough competitive intent across their recent results to back them as winners here.
Girona’s style tends to press high and play with width in a 4-3-3, which can create space for Arsenal’s quick transitions. Arsenal’s recent 4-4-2 shape gives them a more direct, compact look, and they have been solid defensively in most of their pre-season work. Girona commit fouls at a fairly regular rate and rely on set pieces to generate chances — Arsenal’s ability to stay disciplined and absorb pressure before hitting on the break makes them the smarter pick here.
The 3-3 draw Girona conceded against Castellón does raise questions about their backline, and Arsenal, even in friendly mode, have enough quality up front to punish them. We predict this ends with Arsenal taking the win, with goals on both ends given Girona’s recent defensive record.
- Best bet: Arsenal to win
- Value pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes
- Avoid: Girona to win (25% win rate over the last 30 days, poor defensive form)
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Arsenal to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Girona’s pre-season has been a mixed bag. They drew 0-0 with Al Qadsiah, beat Olot 3-1, then lost to Alavés 0-1, before sharing a 3-3 draw with Castellón in their most recent game. That Castellón result is the one that stands out — conceding three goals to a lower-division side in what was presumably a rotated squad game shows real defensive fragility. Across their last 30 days, Girona have managed just one win from four matches, with a 25% win rate. Their season-long numbers are similarly modest at 28% across 25 games, and their form across the last 15 results has been inconsistent, with multiple consecutive losses in the middle stretch.
Arsenal’s pre-season has been more purposeful. They beat Atlético Madrid 1-0, West Ham 1-0, Burnley 1-0, and Crystal Palace 2-1 before the PSG result — a 4-5 defeat that, while a loss, still showed their attacking output is live. The Atlético win is perhaps the most telling, as it came against genuine top-flight opposition and showed Arsenal’s defensive resilience away from their comfort zone. Over the full year, they have won 19 of 35 matches (54%), and their recent form, even accounting for the PSG game, shows far more consistency than Girona’s.
🚨Check out our dedicated Girona vs Arsenal stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Arsenal the Favourite
- Moneyline Girona 3.50–3.90 | Arsenal 1.82–1.91
- Draw 3.35–3.55
The spread across bookmakers is tight on Arsenal, with the best value sitting at 1.91 on bons. That price reflects a 52% implied probability, which is very close to the bookmakers’ own 50% estimate — meaning there is little margin being taken against you. Arsenal’s dominance in recent competitive fixtures and their head-to-head win over Girona in the Champions League make this a well-priced selection. The draw at 3.35–3.55 is tempting given the friendly context, but Arteta tends to use these games to build match sharpness, and Arsenal’s squad quality makes a draw the least likely outcome here.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Girona. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Arsenal arrive in Girona as clear favourites, and the data backs that up on every level — superior world ranking, better win rate across the year, stronger recent form, and a head-to-head win at this exact ground in the Champions League. Girona’s 3-3 draw with Castellón exposed a backline that struggles to stay compact, and Arsenal’s front line, even in pre-season mode, has been scoring consistently. We predict Arsenal to win this match, with goals at both ends making the BTTS Yes market the best additional value. The Over 2.5 total goals line also looks well-supported given both teams’ recent scoring patterns — Girona conceded three in their last game, and Arsenal scored four against PSG. Back Arsenal to win in a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline.
