Sofia Quijada
Real Madrid open their August friendly schedule against Fiorentina on August 1, with José Mourinho’s side entering the fixture off a strong recent run. The Italians have played considerably more competitive minutes over the past month, which could work either way: sharper match fitness or accumulated fatigue. The interesting angle here is that Mourinho faces a Serie A side for the first time in his Real Madrid tenure, and Fabio Grosso’s Fiorentina have shown enough defensive solidity in their pre-season to make this more than a routine walkover.
Two players worth tracking are whoever Mourinho deploys in the No. 10 role behind the striker in Real Madrid’s preferred 4-2-3-1, as that position has driven most of their attacking output this year. For Fiorentina, the central midfielder tasked with breaking up play will be key, given Madrid’s tendency to exploit space through the middle.
Hot stat: Fiorentina have played four matches in the last 30 days, winning two, losing one, and drawing one. They faced QPR just days ago and lost 3-2, conceding three goals in a single game, which raises questions about defensive organization heading into this fixture against a far stronger opponent.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 – August |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Real Madrid vs Fiorentina Prediction
Real Madrid are clear favorites at 62% implied probability, and the odds reflect that accurately. Mourinho’s side has won 66% of their matches this year across 32 games, and their only defeat in the last 30 days came against Barcelona in La Liga. Against a Fiorentina side that has won just 44% of their games in 2026, the gap in quality is real.
We predict a Real Madrid win. The Blancos have scored four goals in each of their last two matches, and while Fiorentina showed defensive resilience in their 1-0 victories over Watford and Gubbio, neither of those opponents comes close to the attacking threat Madrid carries. Fiorentina’s 3-2 loss to QPR is a red flag: if they shipped three against a Championship side, a well-organized Madrid attack should find the net more than once.
Fiorentina operate in a 4-2-3-1 as well, which sets up a midfield battle that Madrid should dominate on paper. Grosso’s side tend to sit in a compact mid-block and hit on the counter, meaning this match may not be end-to-end, but Madrid’s quality in the final third should be enough to break them down. We expect at least two Madrid goals and a competitive but ultimately one-sided second half.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Real Madrid to win both halves |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Real Madrid have been in excellent form across their recent fixtures. Their last match, a 4-1 demolition of Leganes, showed the full range of their attacking play: movement, finishing, and composure. Before that, they put four past Athletic Bilbao and ground out a 1-0 win over Sevilla. The only blot in the recent run is the 0-2 loss to Barcelona, but that came against one of the top-ranked clubs in the world and should not be overweighted. Across five matches, they have scored 11 goals, which is a strong indicator of attacking sharpness heading into this friendly.
Fiorentina’s recent form is more mixed. They beat Watford 1-0 and Gubbio 1-0, but the 3-2 loss to QPR just days before this fixture is the most relevant data point. Their draw with Fiorentina U20 also suggests the squad is still finding its rhythm. The 1-1 draw with Atalanta from late May remains their most meaningful result, showing they can hold their own against top Serie A opposition. To be honest, Fiorentina look like a team mid-pre-season, which is a disadvantage against a Madrid side that appears further along in their preparation.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
This is the first recorded meeting between the two sides in this dataset, so direct head-to-head statistics are limited. The upcoming fixture itself is the only entry in the tracker.
🚨Check out our dedicated Real Madrid vs Fiorentina stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Real Madrid the Favourite
- Moneyline Real Madrid 1.43–1.50 | Fiorentina 4.70–5.40
- Draw 4.20–5.00
The moneyline odds on Real Madrid at around 1.43 to 1.50 are tight but justified given the quality gap. Fiorentina at 4.70 to 5.40 represents the true outsider status of the Italian side in this fixture. The draw price of 4.20 to 5.00 is fair for a friendly where Mourinho may rotate, but given Madrid’s recent goal output, a draw feels unlikely. The value, if any, sits in the Over 2.5 goals market, as both teams have shown they can score and Madrid in particular have been free-scoring.
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Fiorentina. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Real Madrid enter this friendly as the significantly stronger side on paper and in recent form. Their 4-1 and 4-2 wins in the last two matches confirm the attack is firing, and Fiorentina’s defensive issues, most recently exposed by QPR, make it hard to back the Italians to keep a clean sheet. Mourinho will likely use this match to sharpen combinations rather than play conservatively, which points toward a high-scoring Madrid performance.
We predict a Real Madrid win with both teams scoring. Fiorentina have enough quality to grab one, particularly on the counter, but Madrid’s depth and attacking output across 2026 make them a strong pick to win comfortably. The Over 2.5 goals market looks like the most reliable secondary bet given the evidence from both sides’ recent matches.
