Sofia Quijada
Elche host Alavés at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero with both teams seeking late-season momentum in La Liga. Elche, slightly ahead in the table, look to consolidate their mid-table security, while Alavés aim to break out from the lower end. The tactical duel between Eder Sarabia and Quique Sánchez Flores should deliver strategic football, not fireworks, but several attacking threats could shape the outcome. Keep a close eye on André Silva for Elche and Toni Martínez for Alavés both strikers recently found the net and will be focal points for their sides’ attacks. The key “hot stat”: Alavés have racked up 11 yellow cards in their last 5 matches, one of the highest disciplinary counts in La Liga’s current spell, hinting at a physical approach and possible defensive vulnerability.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2025/26, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 14:00 CEST |
Elche vs Alavés prediction
We predict Elche to win. The home side’s recent form (three wins in five, including a notable 3-2 victory over Atletico Madrid) outshines Alavés, who have only one win in their last five. Elche’s attack, led by André Silva (3 goals in his last 4), has shown more consistency, and their defensive structure, while not flawless, copes better under pressure compared to Alavés’ leaky back line. Alavés’ high foul and yellow card count suggests discipline issues, likely leading to dangerous free kicks or even being a man down. Both teams use a 5-3-2, but Elche’s midfield, with Aleix Febas and Gonzalo Villar controlling the tempo and possession, should tip the balance.
Elche’s approach centers around ball retention and structured build-up, reflected in a higher pass count (1993 to Alavés’ 1626 in last five) and better pass accuracy (55% to 53%). Alavés, in contrast, press aggressively but often at the expense of discipline resulting in more fouls (53 vs 55 for Elche) and yellow cards. Expect stoppages and a chippy midfield contest, but Elche’s measured style should prevail.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 4.5 cards |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Elche come off a 1-3 defeat to Celta Vigo, but their recent run includes a 3-2 win over Atletico Madrid and tight victories against Real Oviedo and Valencia. The attack, with Silva in form and support from Gonzalo Villar (1 goal, 1 assist in last 4), shows penetration against varied opposition. Defensive lapses are present, but the team capitalizes on transition opportunities.
Alavés lost 2-4 at home to Athletic Bilbao, a match that exposed defensive fragility conceding four goals and struggling to manage wide attacks. Their only recent win came against Mallorca, and they drew with Real Sociedad and Osasuna, but the defense allowed eight goals in five matches. Toni Martínez remains a lone bright spot with three goals, but the supporting cast struggles to relieve pressure, often resorting to tactical fouls.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Elche | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 41 | 53 |
| Corner kicks | 21 | 24 |
| Total fouls | 55 | 53 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 55 | 53 |
| Interceptions | 32 | 37 |
| Offsides | 7 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Elche vs Alavés stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Elche the favourite
- Moneyline Elche 2.34 | Alavés 3.42
- Draw 3.40
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.25 | Under 2.5 1.60
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 1.85
Elche hold a clear edge in both form and bookmakers’ expectations, priced as favourites at most outlets. Alavés, despite occasional offensive surges, rarely sustain pressure away from home. The draw is plausible but less likely given Elche’s attacking record and Alavés’ porous defense. Goals should come, with both teams likely to score, but Elche’s overall control makes them the sharper bet.
Possible Starting Lineups
Elche possible starting eleven
- GK: Matías Dituro
- DF: Pedro Bigas, David Affengruber, Leo Petrot, Buba Sangaré, Adrià Pedrosa
- MF: Aleix Febas, Gonzalo Villar, Martim Neto
- FW: André Silva, Lucas Cepeda
This eleven maximizes Elche’s recent strengths solid defensive base with Bigas, Affengruber, and Petrot, and a midfield trio skilled at maintaining possession. Febas and Villar combine well, with Silva’s movement and scoring touch up front. The 5-3-2 formation suits Sarabia’s structured philosophy, allowing fullbacks to advance and support attacks. André Silva is the main threat, but Lucas Cepeda’s pace and off-ball runs could surprise a vulnerable Alavés defense.
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Jonny Otto, Victor Parada, Jon Pacheco, Youssef Enriquez
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Ander Guevara, Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras
- FW: Toni Martínez, Angel Pérez Hidalgo
Alavés stick to their familiar 5-3-2, aiming for compactness at the back and direct service to Martínez. Sivera remains first-choice in goal. Tenaglia and Otto offer defensive experience, while Blanco provides rare midfield quality. Toni Martínez is the clear attacking focal point. The side’s defensive issues and discipline problems may persist, but any spark will have to come from their physical pressing and opportunistic finishing.
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Elche. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Elche to win in a contest featuring at least three goals and a flurry of cards. The home side’s form, midfield stability, and sharper finishing make them the better option. Alavés’ discipline problems could hand Elche more set-piece chances, further tilting the odds. Expect a competitive, physical clash with both teams finding the net, but Elche’s edge in structure and attacking rhythm should prove decisive.
