Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg Prediction: 14.03.2026 Bundesliga

On 14 March 2026, Borussia Dortmund welcomes FC Augsburg to Signal Iduna Park in what shapes up to be a pivotal Bundesliga tie. While the surface narrative suggests a straightforward clash between title chasers and mid-table hopefuls, keen followers will remember recent encounters between these two—surprises have become a recurring motif. FC Augsburg’s upset win last season is still fresh in the memory, and Dortmund, currently under Niko Kovac’s stewardship, will know they’ve got work to do if they hope to keep pace with Bayern at the summit. There’s more beneath the surface here than the league table implies.

In terms of individual impact, all eyes will be on Sehrou Guirassy up front for Dortmund, whose recent run of goals and movement off the ball has been instrumental in stretching opposition defences. For Augsburg, Rodrigo Ribeiro’s sharp finishing and Alexis Claude-Maurice’s creative spark in midfield could prove to be the catalysts if they’re to spring another surprise in Dortmund.

Hot stat? Borussia Dortmund have delivered 15 corners across their last five matches—signalling their relentless attacking approach and sustained pressure in the final third, a pattern Augsburg must be wary of.

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Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg prediction

Given the pre-match data and current form—Dortmund’s firm advantage in the standings, robust home record, and superior overall squad quality—it’s hard to look past a win for the hosts. However, Augsburg have shown notable resilience on the break and have a tendency to keep matches competitive, especially when allowed to disrupt possession through fouls and aggressive pressing in midfield. Dortmund have seen their defence breached regularly at home—2 goals conceded in their last outing at Signal Iduna Park—and Augsburg’s recent upturn in goal output cannot be ignored.

Dortmund typically command the lion’s share of possession (averaging over 65 percent in the last five), and their passing accuracy sits comfortably higher than Augsburg’s (81 percent vs 73 percent). However, this ball dominance sometimes leaves gaps for counters, especially against opponents with energetic forwards. Augsburg’s higher tally of recent corners (28 in the last five) highlights their threat on set pieces—another reason both teams could find the net.

Expect Dortmund to set the agenda with a high defensive line and wingbacks pushing forward. Augsburg, under Manuel Baum, won’t shy from tactical fouls (almost 10 per match) and look to frustrate. However, Dortmund’s relentless pressure, coupled with their form in front of goal, tips the balance their way.

Team Analysis

Borussia Dortmund come into this after a hard-fought 2-1 victory against FC Köln—a result that typifies their ability to grind wins even on less-than-perfect days. Kovac’s men have looked most dangerous when flowing through midfield orchestrators like Julian Brandt, while the back three show signs of increasing solidity. Prior to that, Dortmund fell short in a 2-3 classic versus Bayern Munich and endured a European disappointment against Atalanta (1-4 away), underlining defensive frailties that must not be underestimated heading into this clash.

FC Augsburg are fresh from a spirited but ultimately unsuccessful outing—losing 1-2 to RB Leipzig—but their preceding two fixtures saw them secure six points courtesy of a 2-0 win over Köln and 3-2 thriller against Wolfsburg. Augsburg typically operate in the same 3-4-2-1 formation as Dortmund, relying on explosive moments from their attacking midfield line and the reliable finishing of Rodrigo Ribeiro. Their games have been defined more by swings of fortune than strict control, but recent form gives reason to believe they can compete, especially in transition phases.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Borussia Dortmund the favourite

• Moneyline Borussia Dortmund 1.44 | FC Augsburg 6.80
• Draw 5.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.60 | Under 2.5 2.25
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.87 | No 1.90

The odds strongly back Borussia Dortmund at home—unsurprising given their higher league position and considerably deeper squad. A price of 1.44 suggests near certainty, but past upsets caution against underestimating Augsburg, who have turned the tables in this matchup before. The over/under and BTTS markets indicate expectations of a lively affair with attacking openings on both sides, and given Dortmund’s recent defensive numbers, both teams finding the net is a logical angle. The bookmakers’ wide margin for Augsburg means there’s definite underdog value, yet it’s a long shot considering the context.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven

Dortmund should stick with the tried-and-tested 3-4-2-1 system—Kobel’s reflexes in goal are invaluable, while the defensive quartet remains solid. Expect Sabitzer and Brandt to dictate the rhythm, with Adeyemi adding drive from deeper positions. The forward pairing of Guirassy and Beier promises pace and directness, perfect for exploiting Augsburg’s back line. Watch for Brandt and Adeyemi’s interplay between the lines—that’s where this game could open up. The only notable absentee is Schlotterbeck (due to a recent red), pushing Anton into a central defensive role.

FC Augsburg possible starting eleven

Augsburg also roll out a 3-4-2-1, with Dahmen between the sticks—his shot stopping has rescued points more than once this term. Schlotterbeck anchors the defence, Banks and Zesiger offer balance. Midfield is a blend of grit and flair, with Massengo and Jakić doing the dirty work, while Claude-Maurice offers real incision from deeper areas. Up front, Ribeiro and Gregoritsch have proven a handful when given service. Watch for Claude-Maurice threading passes behind Dortmund’s fullbacks—Augsburg’s best hope lies in quick transitions.

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My take on the Match

If Dortmund channel their best, they should secure three points—possibly by a two-goal margin, though Augsburg’s recent upsets and attacking set-piece prowess cannot be ignored. My main pick is a Dortmund -1.5 Asian Handicap, expecting Dortmund to dominate territory and chances created. There’s every likelihood for a lively, high-scoring end-to-end contest, with both outfits likely to find the net. However, in front of their own fans and in the heart of the Bundesliga title race, Dortmund’s extra edge in quality and experience should see them home.

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