Sofia Quijada
Alavés hosts Athletic Bilbao in a La Liga clash at Estadio de Mendizorroza on May 2, 2026. Both teams share identical win probabilities according to bookmakers, each given a 36% chance, underlining how evenly matched this contest appears on paper. Recent form from both sides has been erratic, but the stakes remain high as each club fights for a strong league finish.
The spotlight falls on Toni Martínez for Alavés—four goals in his last four matches make him the most potent forward for the hosts. For Athletic Bilbao, Gorka Guruzeta stands out with three goals in his previous four outings, offering a consistent scoring threat. Both have shown a knack for converting limited chances into goals.
Hot stat: Alavés have produced 64 total shots and scored 8 goals across their last five matches, doubling Athletic Bilbao’s goal tally in the same span.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season (Spain) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
Alavés vs Athletic Bilbao prediction
We predict a draw as the best value option in this fixture. Both clubs arrive with inconsistent form and nearly identical win rates over the past month (25% each). Their last five head-to-head encounters reflect a balanced rivalry, and bookmakers have priced them evenly. Alavés, slightly better at home, and Bilbao, more dangerous on the counter, are likely to cancel each other out.
Alavés commit more fouls and pick up more yellow cards (52 fouls, 9 yellows in five games) than Bilbao (50 fouls, 4 yellows), pointing to a scrappier home side. Both teams generate a similar number of corners (27 each), but Alavés are more direct and aggressive with their shooting (64 shots vs 42). Athletic prefer a higher pass count and accuracy (1515 passes at 83% vs 1311 at 82%), suggesting they will try to control the ball and pace, while Alavés seek more transitions and direct attacks. Discipline could play a role if Alavés become overzealous defensively.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Double Chance: Alavés or Draw |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Alavés enter this match after a vital 2-1 home victory against Mallorca, snapping a short winless run. Toni Martínez was instrumental, while Lucas Boyé chipped in with key support. This win followed a narrow 1-2 loss to Real Madrid and high-scoring draws with Real Sociedad and Osasuna. Alavés consistently score and concede, highlighting defensive vulnerability but also attacking intent—evident from their 8 goals in the last five matches.
Athletic Bilbao, meanwhile, lost 2-3 at home to Atletico Madrid in their latest outing. Despite Gorka Guruzeta’s continued scoring, defensive lapses proved costly. Their recent record includes a 1-0 win over Osasuna, but defeats to Villarreal and Getafe expose their instability at the back. Athletic’s attack looks less effective (4 goals in five matches) but they possess ball retention quality that could frustrate Alavés’ pressing.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Alavés | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 4 |
| Total shots | 64 | 42 |
| Free kicks | 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks | 27 | 27 |
| Total fouls | 52 | 50 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 82 | 83 |
| Interceptions | 30 | 34 |
| Offsides | 4 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Alavés vs Athletic Bilbao stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Alavés the favourite
- Moneyline Alavés 2.74 | Athletic Bilbao 2.69
- Draw 3.58
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.25 | Under 2.5 1.62
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.82 | No 1.91
With virtually identical odds for a home or away win, the market expects an even match. Alavés have a marginal edge at home, but Bilbao’s ability to grind results away keeps them in the hunt. Draw odds represent the highest value considering both sides’ inconsistent form and head-to-head history. The under 2.5 goals market is favored given Bilbao’s recent scoring struggles and Alavés’ defensive lapses, while both teams to score is priced attractively thanks to both sides’ tendency to concede.
Alaves. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Jonny Otto, Victor Parada, Youssef Enriquez
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Ander Guevara, Jon Guridi, Carles Aleñá
- FW: Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé
Sivera is a reliable presence in goal. The back four features the most used defenders in recent matches, with Tenaglia and Otto offering experience. In midfield, Blanco and Guevara provide structure, with Aleñá and Guridi tasked with linking play. Up front, Toni Martínez’s recent form makes him undroppable, with Boyé adding power. Alavés should deploy their typical 4-4-2, focusing on transitions and direct play, exploiting Bilbao’s defensive weaknesses.
Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven
- GK: Unai Simon
- DF: Yuri Berchiche, Daniel Vivian, Yeray Álvarez, Aymeric Laporte
- MF: Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta, Oihan Sancet, Alejandro Rego Mora, Mikel Jauregizar
- FW: Gorka Guruzeta, Iñaki Williams
Unai Simon anchors the defense. Berchiche and Laporte bring stability, while Vivian and Yeray are mainstays in the back line. The midfield combines passing ability and pressing with Rego Mora and De Galarreta, while Jauregizar and Sancet offer dynamism. Guruzeta leads the line, supported by Williams’ speed. Bilbao’s usual 4-2-3-1 formation should be expected, focusing on possession and quick breaks.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Athletic Bilbao. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This match carries the hallmarks of a cagey, tense contest with few clear-cut chances. Alavés create more shots and have a more direct style, but Bilbao’s midfield control and passing accuracy could suppress the hosts’ rhythm. Both teams have goals in them, but recent head-to-head data and defensive lapses on both sides point to a likely draw with both teams scoring. Our expert team believes a 1-1 or 2-2 result is probable, with the under 2.5 goals market holding value. The double chance for Alavés or draw stands as our strongest recommendation.
