With the 2025 NBA Finals knotted at 1-1, the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder have so far delivered a showdown that, while predictable in its ebb and flow, has featured some stark statistical anomalies under the surface. As we pivot to Game 3 in Indiana, it’s time to dig into the key deviations that could shape the rest of the series.
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Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
Pacers’ Two-Point Production: A Vanishing Act
Indiana’s strength all season long came from elite efficiency inside the arc — 30.0 made 2-point field goals per game at 56.6%. Yet, in the Finals, that number has plummeted to just 22.0 per game on 51.8% shooting. Pascal Siakam, typically the spearhead of this mid-range barrage, has seen his output drop from 6.2 to 4.0 made twos per game.
Interestingly, the Pacers have shifted their shot distribution dramatically — averaging 39.5 three-point attempts per game, with nearly half of their shots now coming from deep. A tactical adaptation or forced disruption? Either way, their offensive rhythm is clearly off-tempo.
Turnover Trouble: Indiana’s Costly Mistakes
Turnovers are undermining Indiana’s efficiency. The Pacers are coughing it up on 18% of their possessions — up from 11.9% during the season. Game 1 saw them commit 25 turnovers, the most by a Finals-winning team since 1977.
Oklahoma City’s pressure has been relentless. The Thunder forced 14 steals in Game 1 and are averaging 12.0 steals per game — well above the Pacers’ season average of just 7.3 SPG allowed. This tug-of-war between the NBA’s most turnover-averse offense and one of its best defensive disrupters is swinging in OKC’s favor.
Thunder’s Free-Throw Frenzy
Despite being one of the league’s least foul-dependent teams during the regular season, the Thunder are now living at the line. Averaging 25.0 free throws per game (up from 16.7), their efficiency has also spiked — hitting 87.7% across Games 1 and 2.
Game 2 alone saw OKC drop 29 points from the line — their third-highest total all year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, true to form, has converted 36% of the team’s total free throws, making Indiana pay for every defensive misstep.
Indiana’s Dwindling Scoring Output
Offense has carried the Pacers this far, but the Finals are testing their scoring ceiling. After averaging 117.2 PPG all season, they’ve dipped to 109.0 in the Finals. And this isn’t about pace — the tempo is steady at 99.8 possessions per game, slightly above their season average.
Instead, a mix of shot selection shifts and turnover woes are to blame. Siakam and Haliburton, previously combining for 39.9 PPG in the playoffs, have managed only 32.5 in the Finals. If Indiana can’t recalibrate its scoring arsenal, they’ll continue playing from behind.
Decline in Dimes: Ball Movement Stalling
Both teams are registering fewer assists. Their combined average has fallen from 55.5 to 44.5 per game. Indiana’s assist rate is actually up slightly (67.3% of FGs assisted), but they’re making fewer shots overall. Oklahoma City, however, has taken a different turn. Their assist rate has plummeted to 47.9% — well below their 59.7% season mark — highlighted by a season-low 33.3% in Game 1.
That said, SGA bounced back with eight assists in Game 2, but the Pacers will undoubtedly aim to choke off OKC’s passing lanes once more in Game 3.
Final Takeaway: A Series Defined by the Unexpected
Though the series score reads 1-1, the underlying metrics are painting a very different picture. The Pacers are shooting less efficiently, turning the ball over more, and scoring less overall, while Oklahoma City is capitalizing on those mistakes and dominating from the free-throw line. These statistical anomalies could be the blueprint for how the rest of the Finals unfold.
With Game 3 looming large, both teams must decide: double down on what’s worked or pivot before it’s too late. Stay tuned — because these Finals are anything but ordinary.