xG snapshot: how Premier League teams have begun the season

The table gives the results, xG explains how matches have been won and lost. Expected goals (xG) shows how often teams are creating high-quality chances, and how often they are being asked to defend against them. Penalties are excluded so a team’s general threat or vulnerability isn’t distorted early on.

At the top of the xG chart sit Arsenal and Manchester City. Arsenal combine the best defence with the fourth-best attack. City have the joint-best attack and sit fourth for defence.

There are surprises. Crystal Palace have one of the league’s most dangerous attacks, matching City in shot quality. Newcastle look almost as solid at the back as Arsenal.

Conversely, Manchester United and Chelsea both possess top-five attacks but are in the bottom five for defence — a worrying balance for managers and fans alike.

Liverpool‘s recent back-to-back defeats, after five straight wins, paint a truer picture of their form than the earlier run suggested. Tottenham have been efficient in front of goal, getting results despite not dominating many matches.

Premier League xG Stats 25/26

Attack: volume and quality

When it comes to shots, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool lead the way, each averaging around 15 shots per game. But volume is not the whole story.

Manchester City and Crystal Palace create the highest-quality chances, roughly 0.14 xG per shot. Historically those types of chances are converted at around 14%, compared with roughly 10% for the shots United, Arsenal and Liverpool are taking.

Brentford are an odd case. They shoot little — about eight times per game — yet the quality of those attempts keeps their attack in the middle of the table.

2025/26England

$197Prize Pool

20Teams

PremierTier

Arsenal

Winner

Manchester City

2nd Place

Manchester United

3rd Place

Defence: shot numbers and chance quality

Arsenal and Newcastle have been excellent defensively, conceding few shots and giving opponents the lowest-quality chances.

At the other end of the spectrum two teams stand out for defensive problems: Manchester United and Burnley. United concede only 9.1 shots per game, better than most, but the shots they allow are unusually easy for opponents — about 0.16 xG per shot. In contrast, Burnley face the most shots in the league, roughly 18.4 per game, around four more than the next worst side. Thankfully those chances are not as high-quality as the volume suggests.

Other notes

Aston Villa‘s early issues are no longer about finishing — they have six non-penalty goals from an xG of 6.0 — the problem is simply that their overall play has been below par.

Promoted teams Leeds and Sunderland have adapted reasonably well so far. Burnley have struggled to make the jump; they sit with both the worst attack and the worst defence.

Form vs expectation

For most sides expected goal difference lines up closely with actual goal difference. Tottenham are the notable outlier. They have scored five more goals than xG suggests they should have — an impressive overperformance. A big part of that has been goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario, who has prevented more goals than any other keeper so far, about 2.9.

That overperformance is useful now, but it is unlikely to persist unless Tottenham start to dominate games more. Thomas Frank, who knows the value of sustained control from his time at Brentford, will want to close that gap between results and underlying performance.

Overall, xG shows a clearer picture than the table alone. Teams that consistently dominate the quality and quantity of chances tend to finish higher over a season. Early leads in the standings are interesting — the underlying numbers tell us which teams might stay there.