Rafael Nogueira
Deportivo Pasto host Bogota at the Estadio Departamental Libertad in the opening stage of the Copa Colombia 2026. Despite holding a strong 52% win rate across 21 matches this year, Pasto head into this fixture on a two-game losing run, both defeats coming against Deportes Tolima. Bogota, managed by Jeff Strasser, carry their own poor momentum, having won none of their last five matches across all competitions.
With bookmakers pricing Pasto at a heavy 82% win probability, the hosts are expected to assert home advantage on a Bogota side that has failed to win in their last five outings. One player worth watching on the Bogota side is their forward line, which has managed to score in only two of those five recent matches, pointing to a genuine attacking problem heading into this cup tie.
Hot stat: Bogota have lost three and drawn two of their last five matches, scoring just twice in that stretch, making them one of the most out-of-form sides entering this stage of the Copa Colombia.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Colombia 2026, Stage 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:00 CEST |
Deportivo Pasto vs Bogota Prediction
The case for a Deportivo Pasto win is straightforward. They carry a significantly better season record, play at home in Pasto, and face a Bogota side that has not won in five matches. Pasto’s 52% win rate across 21 matches this year is respectable for a Copa Colombia contender, and their coach Jonathan Risueño has shown the ability to set up the side to grind results at home. The 1.11 moneyline on Pasto is extremely short, so the value lies elsewhere in the market.
For total goals, Bogota’s recent matches have been low-scoring, with back-to-back 0-0 and 1-1 draws, and two consecutive 0-2 and 1-2 defeats. Pasto’s last two Liga games ended 0-2 and 0-1 against Tolima, though those came against a top-ranked opponent. In cup football at this stage, defensive caution often dominates early on. We predict Bogota will struggle to find the net, which points toward a clean sheet for Pasto rather than an open game.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Deportivo Pasto to Win to Nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Deportivo Pasto enter this Copa Colombia fixture in mixed form. Their last two outings were both defeats to Deportes Tolima, conceding three goals across those matches without reply, which is concerning on the surface. Before that run, Pasto showed resilience, beating Deportes Tolima 1-0 and defeating Jaguares de Cordoba 3-2 in a competitive five-goal contest. Their year-long record of 11 wins from 21 matches reflects a side capable of performing at this level. At the Estadio Departamental Libertad, the altitude in Pasto historically disrupts visiting teams, and that factor should not be underestimated in cup football.
Bogota arrive in poor shape. Their last five matches produced zero wins, three defeats, and two draws. They lost 1-2 to Cartagena (rated 1446), drew 1-1 and lost 0-2 to Barranquilla (rated 22358), and lost 0-2 to Cartagena in an earlier fixture. Their only positive result was a 0-0 draw with Union Magdalena. Jeff Strasser’s side has struggled against both strong and modest opponents in recent weeks, suggesting structural problems rather than a quality gap issue alone. Scoring has been the primary concern, with Bogota netting just twice across five matches.
🚨Check out our dedicated Deportivo Pasto vs Bogota stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Deportivo Pasto the Favourite
- Moneyline Deportivo Pasto 1.11 | Bogota 5.20
- Draw N/A
The 1.11 on Pasto reflects near-certainty from bookmakers, and to be honest, backing them outright at that price offers almost no value. The 82% implied probability is justified given the home advantage, altitude factor, and Bogota’s winless run, but the return does not compensate for the risk. The smarter angle is Pasto to Win to Nil at a likely improved price, given Bogota have scored in only two of their last five matches. We would avoid the draw entirely given the bookmaker listed no odds for that outcome.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Bogota. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Deportivo Pasto should win this Copa Colombia Stage 1 fixture. Their home ground in Pasto is a genuine advantage, the altitude disrupts visiting teams, and Bogota have shown no signs of turning their form around. We predict a 2-0 or 1-0 result in favor of Pasto, with Bogota unlikely to find the net. The best value play is Pasto to Win to Nil, targeting the fact that Bogota have failed to score in three of their last five matches. Under 2.5 goals is also a strong secondary option, as both sides have featured in tight, low-scoring matches recently, and cup football at this stage rarely produces high-scoring affairs between opponents of this profile.
