Uruguay vs Cape Verde Prediction: 22 June 2026 World Cup

Both sides enter Matchday 2 of Group H on one point each after opening draws. Uruguay shared a 1-1 result with Saudi Arabia, a flat performance from Marcelo Bielsa’s side that raised questions about their attacking output. Cape Verde, playing their first-ever World Cup group stage match, held Spain to a goalless draw at the same venue, which is arguably the more impressive result. The island nation arrives with momentum and nothing to lose, while Uruguay knows a second dropped result could make qualification extremely complicated.

Federico Valverde anchors Uruguay’s midfield and is the primary engine behind their build-up, completing 43 passes in the Saudi Arabia draw with consistent defensive and offensive contributions. For Cape Verde, Jamiro Monteiro is the creative hub, operating as the link between defense and attack and logging the most ball-carrying work in their Spain game. Hot stat: Cape Verde registered only 6 total shots across their last logged match, compared to Uruguay’s 27, yet their goalkeeper Josimar Dias Vozinha made 7 saves against Spain, suggesting their defensive structure can absorb pressure from higher-ranked opponents.

Uruguay vs Cape Verde Prediction

Uruguay are heavy favourites on paper and carry superior squad depth, but their recent form is unconvincing. In 2026 they have zero wins from three matches, drawing Algeria and England before the Saudi Arabia stalemate. Cape Verde, by contrast, won two of their last three matches heading into the tournament, beating Bermuda 3-0 and Serbia 3-0 in June. Bielsa’s side must convert their territorial dominance into goals, something they failed to do consistently in warm-up fixtures.

We predict Uruguay to win, but the path to a clean sheet is not guaranteed. Cape Verde will defend compactly in a 4-2-3-1 and look to hit on the counter, a tactic that worked well against Spain. Uruguay’s high shot volume (27 in the Saudi game) suggests they will create chances, yet their finishing has been poor. A narrow Uruguay win with both teams having genuine scoring opportunities is the most realistic scenario. The draw remains live at fair odds given Uruguay’s current form.

Uruguay commit fouls at a controlled rate (6 in their last tracked match) and maintain strong pass accuracy in absolute terms (539 completed passes), giving them the tools to dominate possession. Cape Verde conceded just 1 yellow card and played a disciplined, low-foul game against Spain, which suggests Bubista’s side will stay organized and avoid giving Uruguay set-piece opportunities in dangerous areas. Uruguay’s 14 corners in the Saudi game shows they can force wide pressure, and that volume could be the route to a breakthrough here.

Team Analysis

Uruguay opened their World Cup campaign with a 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia, a result that reflected their broader 2026 struggles. Maximiliano Araujo scored the lone goal, but Uruguay’s attack generated very little of quality before and after. Darwin Nuñez played only 45 minutes and Federico Viñas led the shot count with 5 attempts, suggesting Bielsa is still searching for the right attacking combination. The midfield, anchored by Valverde and Manuel Ugarte, controlled possession but lacked the final pass. In the pre-tournament friendlies, they drew England 1-1 and Algeria 0-0, and suffered a heavy 5-1 loss to USA in March, which exposed vulnerabilities in the defensive line when pressed with pace.

Cape Verde’s World Cup debut against Spain ended 0-0, a composed and tactically disciplined display that earned them wide praise. Goalkeeper Vozinha was the standout performer with 7 saves, and the backline of Roberto Lopes, Diney Borges, and Steven Moreira held shape throughout. Going into the tournament, Cape Verde beat Bermuda 3-0 and Serbia 3-0 in back-to-back June fixtures, showing genuine attacking intent when the defensive pressure is reduced. Their 1-1 draw with Finland and 2-4 loss to Chile in earlier 2026 matches show they can be exposed when opponents stretch them with width, which is something Uruguay may look to exploit through Mathias Olivera and Guillermo Varela at fullback.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

Uruguay and Cape Verde have no significant recorded head-to-head history at senior international level, making this a rare first competitive meeting. The table below reflects the statistical comparison from each team’s most recent match.

🚨Check out our dedicated Uruguay vs Cape Verde stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Uruguay the Favourite

• Moneyline Uruguay 1.44 | Cape Verde 7.26
• Draw 4.40

Uruguay’s odds around 1.41 to 1.55 reflect their status as clear favourites, though the range across bookmakers is notable. Pinnacle sitting at 1.41 and 888starz at 1.55 represents a meaningful gap, and the value is likely closer to the upper end given Uruguay’s current form. Cape Verde at 7.00 to 8.00 is a long price but not outrageous for a side that just held Spain. The draw at 4.10 to 4.50 deserves attention given Uruguay’s inability to win any of their three 2026 matches so far. To be honest, the draw is the most underrated option on the board here.

Possible Starting Lineups

Uruguay Possible Starting Eleven

Bielsa is expected to field a 4-2-3-1 with Muslera in goal, who logged 90 minutes against Saudi Arabia. Giménez and Cáceres form the central defensive pairing, with Varela and Olivera providing width from fullback. Ugarte and Valverde sit as the double pivot, offering both defensive cover and the launch point for attacks. Araujo, who scored against Saudi Arabia, is the most likely player to repeat in the number ten role. Viñas led the shot count last time out with 5 attempts and should keep his starting spot ahead of Nuñez, who may come off the bench to provide energy in the second half.

Cape Verde Possible Starting Eleven

Bubista will almost certainly keep the same defensive shape that neutralized Spain, with Vozinha behind a back four of Moreira, Lopes, Borges, and Sidny Cabral. Monteiro and Pina provide the midfield screen, while Jovane Cabral and Laros Duarte add creativity from wider positions. Ryan Mendes leads the line, supported by Livramento, who brings direct running in behind. Cabral on the left is perhaps Cape Verde’s most dangerous outlet when they transition quickly. The 4-2-3-1 mirrors Uruguay’s shape, which could make the middle of the pitch congested and physical.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Uruguay carry the quality to win this match but have shown very little of it in 2026. Their shot volume is high, corners are plentiful, and pass accuracy is strong, yet goals remain scarce. Cape Verde are not here to make up the numbers. Their Spain draw was no accident, and their goalkeeper is in form. We predict Uruguay to edge this 1-0 or 2-0, with Valverde and Araujo the most likely contributors. The corner market is worth backing over 8.5, given Uruguay’s wide pressure and Cape Verde’s likely defensive shape inviting crosses. BTTS No is the preferred side given Cape Verde’s lack of attacking output (6 shots, 0 goals in their last match) and Uruguay’s defensive solidity when not being pressed with pace.

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