Less than a week has passed since the first legs of the UEFA Champions League play-offs, and already on 24 February we will learn the first casualties of this tournament stage. Only in one tie was the intrigue killed in the first leg; in the other three it remains very much alive. The TipsGG analytics team has prepared their bets for Tuesday’s matches.
Atlético Madrid vs Club Brugge
Atlético have been rather inconsistent, losing twice after their win over Barcelona. But then the Mattress Makers beat Espanyol (4:2), approaching the return leg against Brugge in good spirits. In the current Champions League campaign, Atlético have not kept a single clean sheet. However, at home the Mattress Makers are very strong: they have won 16 of 18 matches this season – with crowd support and the right mindset, they are capable of a lot.
At the beginning of January, Brugge had problems (two defeats – in the league and the Belgian Cup), but then the team came alive: in their last eight matches, they have six wins, one draw and one defeat. It is worth remembering that this Brugge already has experience of Champions League play-offs: a year ago they dismantled Atalanta in the round of 16 (2:1, 3:1).
Match bet: Atlético to Win + Both Teams to Score (odds 2.63)
As for away matches, Brugge have been poor in this regard: in four matches of the current Champions League campaign, they have three defeats and one win – against Kairat. I assume Atlético will win, but I expect goals from both teams.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiacos
In the first leg, the Aspirin-makers secured a comfortable advantage. After conceding first, the Germans received help from VAR: the referee disallowed Mehdi Taremi’s goal for offside. In the second half, Patrik Schick scored a brace within three minutes, securing a confident victory (2:0). After the European away trip, Leverkusen visited Berlin to face Union. Minor changes in the attacking line did not allow Kasper Hjulmand’s side to collect even a point – defeat (0:1) cost them the chance to consolidate in the Bundesliga top 4.
Unlike their opponents, the Piraeus side celebrated success at the weekend. A confident win over Panetolikos (2:0) allowed the team to increase pressure on AEK and temporarily top the Greek Super League. The main question before the trip to Leverkusen is whether there is still hope of salvation? The home defeat by two goals has made Olympiacos’ chances of progression minimal: bookmakers rate such a probability at only 7%.
Match bet: Total Yellow Cards Under 4.5 (odds 1.73)
The match will be officiated by Michael Oliver. His average is 3.9 yellow cards per game. This Englishman is accustomed to tough, physical battles in the Premier League, so he is unlikely to whistle for every minor incident. The first leg showed that the opponents behaved gentlemanly: even trailing at home, the Greek club did not resort to rough play.
Newcastle United vs Qarabağ
After the match in Baku, the question of the tie winner is essentially settled. Newcastle’s confident 6:1 win leaves the Stallions with only theoretical chances of a sensation. Despite the team of Gurban Gurbanov repeatedly showing character in European competitions, a trip to St James’ Park under these circumstances looks an extremely difficult test.
Given the result of the first leg, Eddie Howe may rotate the squad. At the weekend Newcastle played an exhausting league match against Manchester City (1:2), and in a few days they face Everton. It is logical to assume that some leaders will get rest, but even the hosts’ reserves significantly outclass the opponent in individual quality.
For Qarabağ, simply reaching the top 24 teams in the Champions League is already a historic achievement. Therefore, elimination against a much more prestigious opponent is unlikely to be a tragedy. Instead, the Azerbaijani football hegemon should focus on the domestic league, where the team trail Sabah by 7 points, albeit with a game in hand. Losing the title could cost them participation in Europe’s most prestigious competition next season.
Match bet: Anthony Gordon to Score – Yes (odds 2.00)
It is difficult to predict the hosts’ lineup, but even with rotation, Newcastle’s attacking potential allows us to expect goals. Given the race for the Golden Boot, where Kylian Mbappé has 13 goals and Anthony Gordon 10, the Englishman’s motivation looks obvious.
Inter vs Bodø/Glimt
The sensation that occurred in Norway was possible only due to a combination of two factors: Inter’s unbalanced defending and the hosts’ phenomenal finishing. Now the Nerazzurri must work carefully on their defensive lines to make a comeback realistic. In the league, the Milan side comfortably beat Lecce away, dominating for all 90 minutes and not allowing the opponent a single shot on target from Yann Sommer.
The Bodø side rested during the week, as their domestic championship is in the off-season. In the home leg they managed to shock the giant, capitalising brilliantly on defensive errors. This season in the Champions League, Bodø/Glimt have become a real nightmare for favourites: the Italians are already the third high-profile opponent overcome by the Norwegian Vikings after Atlético Madrid and Manchester City. Will this fairy tale continue at San Siro? Bookmakers rate the teams’ progression chances as 50/50.
Match bet: Inter to Advance to the Next Round (odds 1.82) Alternative bet: First Half: Inter to Win (odds 1.54)
I think the home walls will help Inter complete a full comeback. Last season’s finalists will not be forgiven for exiting at such an early stage, so they will storm the opponent’s goal from the first seconds.