Another Champions League day will gift fans the already classic clash of the last three years, which will unquestionably be the central match of the round: Real Madrid vs Manchester City. Insider information about the possible dismissal of Real Madrid head coach Xabi Alonso only adds fuel to the interest in this confrontation.
However, it is not the only “classic” that will delight fans on Wednesday. Qarabag will seek revenge for last year’s defeat to Ajax. Bodø/Glimt and Pafos — bright newcomers to the tournament — will visit Dortmund and Turin respectively. Club Brugge, after the shocking dismissal of Nicky Hayen, will host Arsenal. And a clash of charismatic coaches will take place in Lisbon.
Qarabag vs Ajax
A strong and well-organised Qarabag in Baku will host the main failure of the current Champions League edition — Amsterdam’s Ajax.
After five rounds, the Riders sit 19th but feel confident in the fight for the top-24. Notably, Barcelona and Napoli have the same number of points, so Qarabag’s capabilities should by no means be underestimated.
The calendar also plays into the Azerbaijani club’s hands: Ajax, Eintracht and Liverpool, despite their big names, are unstable and regularly stumble. The Azerbaijanis are yet to lose at home in the Champions League League Phase, and the overall impression of Gurban Gurbanov’s team only strengthens belief in a positive result. It is quite possible that four points in three rounds will be enough to reach the playoffs.
Ajax remain the only team in the tournament without points. Moreover, in five rounds the Jews managed to score only one goal, vividly reflecting the club’s deep crisis. Only the last two matches brought Ajax victories, but it is still difficult to talk about stability.
Last season the teams met in the Europa League, where Ajax dismantled Qarabag without a chance (3:0). This time the situation is different: the hosts have good form, motivation and a desire for revenge, while Ajax continue searching for themselves. Revenge looks more than realistic.
Bet: Qarabag to Win (odds 1.96)
Athletic Bilbao vs PSG
Athletic Bilbao failed the start of the season but are gradually gaining momentum in La Liga: three wins in their last five matches, including against Atlético Madrid. But they were chanceless against Real (0:3) and Barcelona (0:4), just as they failed all top matches in the Champions League. The team are physically exhausted, playing two matches a week after the international break, and the game against PSG will be missed by two centre-backs — Laporte and Paredes.
PSG are inconsistent at the start of the season, regularly making mistakes during matches. However, every time the Parisians find the strength and resources to change the situation. In their last four Champions League matches, five goals were scored and four conceded before halftime. In the second halves — ten scored and three conceded.
Although there are plenty of absences and the defence is far from ideal, dealing with this Athletic Bilbao will not be difficult for PSG.
Bet: PSG to Win (odds 1.62)
Borussia Dortmund vs Bodø/Glimt
The teams approach the match from diametrically opposite positions in the Champions League table. Dortmund are confidently in the top after five rounds, while Bodø/Glimt with two points are in the lower part of the tournament.
Under Niko Kovač, the Bumblebees have lost only once at Signal Iduna Park. In the Bundesliga, BVB are third, though nine points behind the leaders. In the Champions League, the team impress with scoring — 17 goals, the second indicator in the tournament after PSG. At the same time, the defence is not so confident — only 7 teams have conceded more, and one the same number.
Bodø/Glimt consistently gift spectacular matches — only in one of five rounds were fewer than four goals scored. The Norwegians fear no one, showing bold and open play. The Norwegian championship ended at the end of November, which allowed the team to calmly and purposefully prepare for the European cup match.
The favourite is obvious — Borussia. However, the guests’ freshness and the overall goal-scoring nature of both teams suggest a logical exchange of goals. For a bolder option, you can add the hosts’ victory.
Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 1.68)
Alternative Bet: Borussia Dortmund to Win + Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 2.31)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle United
Bayer approach the meeting amid internal tension: the team dropped points in the Bundesliga but continue to hold in the upper part of the Champions League table, relying on two consecutive wins. The main problem is defensive instability, especially noticeable in home European matches where painful failures occurred. Even with vulnerability at the back, Bayer usually step up after the break, which can be key to maintaining control if the start of the match does not go according to plan.
Newcastle are in a more stable state: a four-match unbeaten streak (10 points) in the Premier League added confidence, and the overall form of recent weeks speaks of a margin of safety. The team perform well away and regularly score, maintaining caution in the first halves — in this Champions League they have not conceded before the break. Defensive losses increase risk, but the game structure remains intact thanks to Guimarães’ role.
Against the backdrop of the hosts’ problems with reliability at the back, the guests’ ability to maintain tempo and create chances can give them a serious advantage, however in a home match we should expect attacking football from the Pharmacists as well.
Bet: Both Teams to Score + Total Over 2.5 (odds 1.90)
Benfica vs Napoli
In Lisbon, not only a clash of two giants awaits us, but also a duel of coaching characters — José Mourinho vs Antonio Conte.
Since the arrival of The Special One, the Eagles cannot boast high results. In domestic competitions, wins alternate with draws, and in the Champions League they managed to earn their first victory only last round — and against crisis-hit Ajax. Theoretical chances of the playoffs exist, but they are rather mathematical given the upcoming opponents, albeit not the most stable — Napoli, Juventus, Real.
Napoli are also not without problems, but despite injuries to key performers, they show good results — five wins in a row across all competitions (including a penalty shootout against Cagliari). The main minus is away play. This season Napoli have lost five of nine away matches and have not earned a single point in the Champions League away.
Previous head-to-heads almost a decade ago gifted 9 goals in two matches. There will hardly be that many goals this time, but given defensive problems and the need to fight for points, an exchange of goals looks quite logical.
Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 1.85)
Club Brugge vs Arsenal
Club Brugge are not impressing in the Belgian championship this season, having suffered five defeats and two in a row. In the Champions League, the Belgians look good at home, thrashing Monaco and drawing a high-scoring game with Barcelona, but completely weak away. Periodically, the team experience serious defensive problems — as evidenced by five goals conceded against Westerlo in the domestic league. Two goalkeepers are injured, and the Black and Blues will have to rely on young van der Hoven, who has already played 2 matches and conceded 4 goals.
Arsenal are flawless in the Champions League, winning all five matches and conceding only one goal. However, recent games the Gunners played without a pair of main defenders, due to which they stumbled several times in the league and allowed Manchester City to close the gap.
However, in a non-optimal defensive combination, the Gunners can concede, so I expect an exchange of goals, but the decisive bet will be on the number of shots on target.
Bet: Total Shots on Target Over 9.5 (odds 2.1)
Juventus vs Pafos
Both clubs have earned 6 points each, but the context is different: for Pafos this is a historic success, for Juve it looks more like a failure.
The 1:2 defeat to Napoli was the first for the Old Lady under Luciano Spalletti. The Turin side are getting used to the new coach’s demands, but the results still leave much to be desired — 4 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat. In the Champions League, the situation is also not easy: ahead are matches against Benfica and Monaco, so the game against Pafos is of enormous importance.
The Cypriots are having the season of their dreams. Two draws in the minority, seven matches unbeaten in a row, and in two away Champions League games the team are still unbeaten. Pafos have good physical condition — their last match was five days ago, while Juventus had two days less to prepare for this meeting.
Under Spalletti, in only two of eight matches did the Turin side keep a clean sheet. The Zebras’ defence is unstable, and the guests know how to use chances. It feels like the teams will exchange goals.
Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 2.13)
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Real lost at home in their last match to Celta and worsened their league position relative to Barcelona, which is completely unacceptable for the Royal club’s ambitions. Lately, Xabi Alonso’s team have had many slip-ups, which also applied to not very confident results in the Champions League, recalling the defeat to Liverpool and the tense victory over Olympiacos. Will the head coach be able to restore confidence to the players before Manchester City?
The Citizens are also not ideal, recalling defeats to Newcastle and Bayer, but even in those meetings they looked solid — the players simply experienced setbacks and then won three in a row. In the Champions League, the team are almost in the top eight, but it is clear that they do not have the task of winning everything at all costs in the League Phase. The match and a potential victory at the Santiago Bernabéu are exclusively prestigious, but hardly anyone will fight to the last drop of blood.
I expect a high-scoring game from both teams. Real have trouble in defence, so Haaland will have no problem scoring, and there is no need to talk about Mbappé’s form.
Bet: Total Over 3 (odds 1.75)