The League Phase of the UEFA Champions League is rapidly approaching its end, so every single match carries colossal weight. It is entirely possible that after the fifth round a whole group of teams will say goodbye to their playoff dreams. Here is the traditional TipsGG analyst team digest with the most interesting predictions for Tuesday’s games on December 9.
Kairat Almaty vs Olympiacos Piraeus
Kairat approach the fifth round with just one point earned from a home draw against Pafos. Their last two defeats were minimal, but the opponents’ superiority in quality of play was obvious. The end of the Kazakhstan championship allows Urazbakhtin’s team to focus solely on European cups, which can be a plus in terms of preparation.
Olympiacos have significantly more European experience and a stronger squad, yet lead Kairat by only one point. Much of this performance can be attributed to opponents such as Barcelona, PSV, Arsenal and Real Madrid.
Last Champions League season, 11 points were enough to reach the playoffs. For that, the red-and-whites need to win all remaining matches. It sounds like fantasy, but considering the abilities of Spanish head coach José Luis Mendilibar and opponents in the form of currently not the strongest Bayer and Ajax, anything can happen.
Both teams had very similar matches against Pafos. Having a numerical advantage from the first half, both teams still failed to convert the majority, and in a home game, sharing points with the Champions League newcomer from Cyprus.
Even though Kairat will play at home only formally (the match will be held in Astana), good support from Kazakh fans is expected. Team freshness can be a factor, and an Olympiacos victory is unlikely to be easy. I believe the meeting can be even and even end in a draw.
Bet: Olympiacos Piraeus Win by 1 Goal or Draw (odds 1.97)
Atalanta vs Chelsea
Atalanta have faced difficulties this season, but by early December they have not lost chances to achieve certain goals. Fighting for the top-4 in Serie A is still possible, the club reached the Coppa Italia quarter-finals, and reaching the Champions League playoffs is more than realistic. However, before this game the Bergamaschi unpleasantly surprised by losing to Verona. Still, home field and attacking style allow counting on a positive result against Chelsea.
The Londoners, after thrashing Barcelona, slowed down considerably, earning only two points in three Premier League rounds. If a draw with Arsenal can still be understood, then the defeat to Leeds and draw with Bournemouth can hardly be considered a success. Moreover, Chelsea will have to play away for the third time in ten days — in the Champions League they have not won a single away match out of four.
Given the lack of stability in the hosts’ play and the poor away form of the English side, an exchange of goals should be expected, especially since in four of Atalanta’s last five home Champions League matches and in six of Chelsea’s last nine in this European cup, at least three goals were scored — so we can add total goals to “both to score”.
Bet: Both Teams to Score + Total Over 2.5 (odds 1.9)
Royal Union SG vs Marseille
At Lotto Park, two teams with 6 points each and in direct competition for a top-24 place will meet. Royal Union caused a sensation last round by beating the Turkish giant on their field and now have real chances to cling to the playoffs. However, the Belgians’ upcoming calendar is tough — matches against Bayern and Atalanta. If we look at last season, at least 11 points were needed to advance from the group, so the match against Marseille is extremely important.
Marseille also need only a win, but their away statistics this season are unimpressive — 4 wins in 10 matches. All 6 of the Provençals’ defeats were minimal. In the Champions League, another Marseille trend stands out — a large number of yellow cards involving the Olympians: 5, 5, 6, 6.
The match will be principled, tough and tense. Both teams understand its importance, and the main referee João Pinheiro averages 4.6 yellow cards per game. I expect uncompromising fight from both sides.
Bet: Total Yellow Cards Over 4.5 (odds 2.0)
Tottenham vs Slavia Prague
The Londoners earned a very important victory over Brentford in the Premier League before the game — previously the team had a five-match winless streak across all competitions. Now Tottenham breathed a sigh of relief and lifted their spirits before the Champions League game, which also has great tournament significance — a win will seriously increase the Spurs’ playoff chances. The home status of the meeting is very helpful for the English — at home they won six of their last nine Champions League matches.
Slavia feel confident only in the domestic championship, where they lead. In the Champions League League Phase, the red-and-whites have not won since 2008 and in the current edition have not been particularly close to victory, although they took three draws. First of all, the team showed weakness in attack — only two goals scored and already four consecutive games without scoring.
Betting on the hosts’ victory, which may not be the easiest, but I think Thomas Frank and the team will cope.
Bet: Tottenham to Win + Total Under 3.5 (odds 2.10)
Inter vs Liverpool
At Giuseppe Meazza, Tuesday’s central Champions League match will take place, where Inter, who suffered their first defeat only in the fourth round, will host crisis-hit Liverpool.
Both teams approach the game in completely different moods. The Nerazzurri confidently thrashed ambitious Como (4:0) and continue chasing the Serie A leader, trailing by just one point. Milan’s defence is one of the best in the Champions League phase: only 3 goals conceded.
Liverpool once again showed their inconsistency. Confidently leading against Leeds, the Merseysiders lost the win in the final minutes, playing a crazy (3:3). Talking about defending the championship title with such results is no longer possible. Slot’s team’s defence is far from reliable, although after three thrashing defeats the team pulled themselves together and have a current mini-unbeaten run of three matches.
Inter rarely lose at home, while Liverpool have lost exactly half of their away matches. The current form and stability of Christian Kivu’s team look much more convincing, even though predicting matches involving the Reds is a risky business. The hosts simply look better. That’s what I suggest betting on.
Bet: Inter to Win (odds 2.15)
PSV vs Atlético Madrid
PSV are in stunning form: a five-match winning streak and unbeaten since September. Moreover, the Eindhoven side feel confident not only in the Eredivisie but also in the Champions League, where loud victories over Napoli and Liverpool moved them into the playoff zone.
Atlético are on a noticeable decline: two consecutive La Liga defeats with poor away statistics — only two league wins and zero points in the Champions League away. Their tournament position is far from optimal: a three-point gap to 25th place in the Champions League cannot be called a comfortable advantage. Squad is also limited due to injuries, leaving Simeone with few options to strengthen the game.
Against the backdrop of PSV’s impressive form and Atlético’s away problems, the hosts look noticeably better — attacking power and confidence should help them take advantage of Madrid’s instability and defensive issues.
Bet: PSV Handicap (0) (odds 2.3)
Alternative Bet: PSV Total Shots Over 13.5 (odds 2.0)
Monaco vs Galatasaray
An interesting meeting will take place at Stade Louis II, where teams continuing the fight for the playoffs will play. Unstable Monaco will host Galatasaray, whose top scorer Victor Osimhen returns after missing the previous round.
For both teams, this match is of enormous importance, as the upcoming calendar looks more than serious. The Monegasques will have to face Real Madrid and Juventus, while the Istanbul Lions will face Atlético and Manchester City. Therefore, the head-to-head clash may prove decisive in the playoff race.
At home, the red-and-whites are still unbeaten in this Champions League. Meanwhile, Cim Bom have one win and one defeat away.
Monaco’s form is worrying: in their last 5 matches, Pokonjoli’s charges won only once — albeit against PSG itself — but lost three times to less prestigious opponents. Discipline issues add problems: in four of five matches a red card was shown, three to the Monegasques.
Galatasaray look more stable against this background, although they also have certain questions — two minimal defeats and one draw in their last five games. By the way, Galatasaray players, like their opponent, also received a red card, though in the last Champions League match for failing to control emotions.
Given the high stakes of the match, emotional background and regular discipline problems in both teams, a red card looks like a very realistic scenario.
Bet: Red Card in Match – Yes (odds 4.75)