Sofia Quijada
Penarol and Santa Fe meet in a pivotal Copa Libertadores Group E clash at Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo. Both teams sit in precarious positions Santa Fe in third, Penarol at the bottom making this a must-win for the Uruguayan hosts if they hope to advance. Penarol’s Diego Aguirre faces pressure to convert home advantage into points, while Pablo Repetto’s Santa Fe looks to consolidate group standing.
Eyes will be on Penarol’s Facundo Batista, who netted recently, and Santa Fe’s Hugo Rodallega, who has scored six in his last five by far the group’s top marksman. The hot stat: Rodallega averages more than five shots per match and has been involved in seven of Santa Fe’s last eight goals.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Libertadores 2026, Group E |
| 🏟 Venue: | Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Penarol vs Santa Fe prediction
We predict Penarol will take their first group win. Home advantage at Campeón del Siglo combined with their sharper defense (three draws, two one-goal defeats) and a recent uptick in attacking output makes the difference. Santa Fe’s defense concedes more shots and fouls than Penarol, despite Rodallega’s influence up front.
Penarol have played to their typical 4-2-3-1 with a focus on ball retention but have lacked a killer edge. Their yellow card count is moderate, and foul numbers are below Santa Fe’s, indicating a disciplined approach. Santa Fe, meanwhile, push forward aggressively, tallying 45 fouls and 14 yellow cards in five matches, which could expose them defensively and lead to set-piece chances for Penarol. Ball possession stats tilt towards Santa Fe, but their passing accuracy drops in advanced areas, costing them goals.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Santa Fe over 2.5 cards |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Penarol’s last match: 2-0 win over Defensor Sporting shows renewed focus and efficiency. Previously, they held Corinthians to a 1-1 draw, signaling their ability to contain higher-rated opposition. Offensively, recent matches have brought a goal from Facundo Batista and contributions from midfield, but defensive resilience remains their standout trait. The latest string of draws and narrow wins reflects a team that struggles to convert chances but rarely collapses.
Santa Fe’s last outing: a 0-0 draw against Junior Barranquilla, marked by high shot volume but poor conversion. Rodallega remains their spearhead, with Nahuel Bustos supporting. Santa Fe’s four draws and just one loss in the last five suggest resilience, but frequent yellow cards and fouls point to defensive instability. Passing accuracy (1202 passes, 74%) stands out but is offset by lost balls in midfield transitions.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Penarol | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 24 | 57 |
| Free kicks | 21 | 45 |
| Corner kicks | 6 | 18 |
| Total fouls | 21 | 45 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 56 | 74 |
| Interceptions | 25 | 43 |
| Offsides | 3 | 8 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Penarol vs Santa Fe stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Penarol the favourite
- Moneyline Penarol 1.92 | Santa Fe 4.30
- Draw 3.30
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.60 | Under 2.5 1.48
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.12 | No 1.68
Bookmakers put Penarol as clear favourites due to home advantage and better recent domestic results. Santa Fe’s price reflects both their away struggles and recent inconsistency. The draw is a real risk given both teams’ tendency to settle for parity in group play. Over/Under suggests a low-scoring match, in line with both sides’ average goals per game. Both Teams To Score carries fair value, considering Santa Fe’s aggressive forward line and Penarol’s recent improvement up front.
Possible Starting Lineups
Penarol possible starting eleven
- GK: Washington Aguerre
- DF: Franco Escobar, Mauricio Lemos, Diego Laxalt, Lucas Agustin Ferreira Zagas
- MF: Roberto Fernández, Luis Miguel Angulo, Gastón Togni, Abel Hernández, Luis Miguel Angulo
- FW: Facundo Batista
Aguerre likely returns in goal after back-to-back starts. Escobar and Lemos offer defensive stability, while Laxalt brings width and overlap. Fernández and Angulo provide balance in midfield; Batista’s recent scoring form makes him the clear choice up top. Expect the 4-2-3-1 system to be retained, emphasizing structure over risk.
Santa Fe possible starting eleven
- GK: Andrés Mosquera
- DF: Victor Moreno, Iván Scarpeta, Christian Mafla, Jeison Angulo
- MF: Daniel Torres, Yeicar Perlaza, Alexis Zapata, Jhojan Torres
- FW: Hugo Rodallega, Nahuel Bustos
Mosquera stays between the sticks, with Moreno and Scarpeta anchoring defense. Mafla and Jeison Angulo fill the flanks. Torres and Perlaza screen the defense, while Zapata and Jhojan Torres support a two-man forward line. Rodallega is the undoubted focal point, with Bustos his main support. Santa Fe likely stick to their 4-2-3-1, using Rodallega’s movement and physicality.
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Penarol. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Penarol will edge out Santa Fe in a close contest, probably 1-0 or 2-1. Santa Fe’s attack relies heavily on Rodallega, while their defense accumulates cards and fouls at a rate that invites trouble. Penarol’s home record and tactical discipline give them the edge, though Santa Fe have enough firepower to score. Under 2.5 goals is likely, but both teams should hit the net. Watch for late drama if Santa Fe chase the game, but Penarol’s defensive shape should see them through.
