Rafael Nogueira
Bolivar host Gremio at the Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz for a Copa Sudamericana Round of 32 clash that carries a significant altitude factor. Sitting at 3,637 meters above sea level, the Siles stadium is one of the most demanding venues in South American football for visiting sides, and Gremio’s recent form offers little confidence that they can cope.
Bolivar striker Martín Cauteruccio arrives in form, having scored three goals across the last two matches, while on the Gremio side, forward Cristian Pavón registered an assist in the most recent outing and remains the most dangerous creative outlet in Luís Castro’s setup.
Hot stat: Bolivar registered 35 total shots across their last five matches compared to just 9 for Gremio, reflecting a stark difference in attacking output heading into this tie.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Sudamericana 2026, Round of 32 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Bolivar vs Gremio Prediction
Bolivar are the clear value pick here. Playing at altitude gives them a structural edge that no amount of quality can fully neutralize, and their recent domestic form shows genuine attacking momentum. They beat Guabira 4-0 in their last outing and drew 1-1 with a strong The Strongest side before that. Gremio, by contrast, lost to Mirassol 1-2 in their most recent game and have gone winless in two straight matches, conceding three goals across those two fixtures.
Bolivar operate in a 4-4-2, pressing high and generating significant shot volume. Their 992 passes in five matches against Gremio’s 452 shows a team that controls tempo. Gremio sit in a 4-1-4-1 that relies on defensive compactness, but their 9 total shots and 5 interceptions over five matches point to a team struggling to create and defend under pressure. Bolivar commit more fouls (18 vs 9) but also win more territory, which fits a home side that dictates pace. Gremio’s yellow card rate (3 cards from just 9 fouls) suggests they foul inefficiently and risk disciplinary issues in a tight knockout game.
- We predict Bolivar to win as the primary bet, backed by altitude, home form, and Gremio’s clear attacking limitations.
- Over 2.5 goals is less certain given Gremio’s low offensive output, so the safer angle is Bolivar to win and under 2.5 goals as a combined play.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bolivar to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Bolivar arrive with a 4-0 demolition of Guabira as their last competitive result, a performance that saw Cauteruccio score twice and the team generate fluid passing combinations through midfield. Before that, a 1-1 draw with The Strongest (rated 188 globally) showed they can hold firm against quality domestic opposition. Their two defeats this year in continental play, 1-3 to Independiente Rivadavia and 1-2 to Fluminense, came against well-organized Brazilian and Argentine sides, which adds some caution, but both of those losses were away from La Paz. At home, under Alejandro Restrepo, Bolivar are a different proposition entirely.
Gremio’s last five results tell a mixed story. Their best recent display was a 3-1 win over Cruzeiro, where Carlos Vinícius scored and the team looked sharp. A 2-1 win over Cascavel added to that positive run. The problem is the bookending losses: 1-2 to Chapecoense and 1-2 to Mirassol in their most recent game. Luís Castro’s side has been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses without establishing a clear rhythm. Traveling to La Paz at altitude, with a squad that has shown fragility at the back, makes this a very difficult assignment.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Bolivar | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 1 |
| Total shots | 35 | 9 |
| Free kicks | 17 | 14 |
| Corner kicks | 9 | 4 |
| Total fouls | 18 | 9 |
| Interceptions | 22 | 5 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Bolivar vs Gremio stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bolivar the favourite
- Moneyline Bolivar 1.66 | Gremio 4.60
- Draw 3.90
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The market gives Bolivar roughly 57% implied probability of winning, which aligns with our own assessment. At odds around 1.66 with Stake or Williamhill, Bolivar represent fair value given the altitude advantage and Gremio’s current form. Gremio at 4.60 is not without merit as an upset price, but their attacking stats make it hard to back them to score enough to win or draw this game. The draw at 3.90 is overpriced given how one-sided the underlying statistics look.
Possible Starting Lineups
Bolivar possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Lampe
- DF: Xavier Arreaga, José Sagredo, Jesus Manuel Sagredo, Luiz Fernando Paz Vargas
- MF: Robson Matheus, Leonel Justiniano, Carlos Melgar, Erwin Mario Saavedra
- FW: Martín Cauteruccio, Lucas Chavez
Restrepo is likely to stick with his 4-4-2 that has delivered results in recent weeks. Carlos Lampe is a reliable shot-stopper with two saves in limited recent minutes. Xavier Arreaga anchors the backline with 5 interceptions and the highest pass volume among defenders. Cauteruccio is the standout threat up front with three goals in two games, and Robson Matheus provides the engine in midfield with 8 free kicks won and consistent passing output.
Gremio possible starting eleven
- GK: Weverton Pereira da Silva
- DF: Walter Kannemann, Gustavo Martins, Marcos Rocha, Wagner Leonardo
- MF: Juan Nardoni, Mathias Villasanti, Leonel Pérez, Miguel Monsalve
- FW: Carlos Vinícius, Cristian Pavón
Castro is expected to deploy his 4-1-4-1, though a more defensive 4-4-2 shape is possible away from home. Weverton Pereira da Silva starts in goal, bringing experience. Walter Kannemann and Gustavo Martins form the central defensive pair, though both picked up yellow cards in the last match, which is a concern at altitude. Carlos Vinícius is the lone scorer in recent games and leads the line, with Pavón and Tetê providing width. Juan Nardoni showed energy in midfield with 2 shots and 1 interception and is worth watching as a box-to-box option.
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Gremio. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Bolivar are the right side to back in this Copa Sudamericana Round of 32 first leg. The altitude at the Estadio Hernando Siles is a real physical barrier for Gremio, who have shown little attacking consistency in recent weeks and managed just 9 shots across their last five matches. Bolivar’s shot volume (35), corner count (9), and goal tally (5) across the same period paint the picture of a team in control at home. Cauteruccio’s form alone makes Bolivar dangerous, and Gremio’s defensive discipline (9 fouls but 3 yellow cards) suggests they could be exploited through set pieces and direct play. We predict a Bolivar win, with goals likely to stay under 2.5 given Gremio’s limited offensive threat, and both teams to score is a no given how little Gremio have produced in front of goal recently.
