Liam Duckstein
Hammarby sit second in the Allsvenskan standings with 20 points from 10 games, and they welcome a Kalmar side that has quietly strung together three consecutive wins heading into this fixture. The gap in league position is clear, but Kalmar’s recent momentum makes this more than a routine home win for Henrik Rydström’s side.
Keep an eye on Paulos Abraham for Hammarby. He contributed two shots and a goal in the most recent outing, showing sharp movement inside the box. For Kalmar, Charles Sagoe Jr. is the player to watch, having registered two assists and three free kicks in his last appearance, showing he can create danger even when not on the scoresheet.
Hot stat: Hammarby put 19 total shots on the board in their last match against Elfsborg, a number that dwarfs Kalmar’s 12 shots across their most recent game. That volume of attacking output at home will put Kalmar’s defense under serious pressure from the first whistle.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Allsvenskan 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | 3Arena, Stockholm |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 14:00 CEST |
Hammarby vs Kalmar Prediction
Hammarby are the clear favorites here, and the odds around 1.38–1.42 reflect that. The home side have won six of their ten league matches this season, scored 23 goals, and conceded only nine. Their goal difference of +14 is the best in the division. Kalmar, by contrast, have won three of nine with a modest goal difference of +1.
The best value bet is a Hammarby win. They have been dominant at home, and Kalmar have struggled against organized, attack-minded sides. Kalmar’s three recent wins came against Orgryte, Brommapojkarna, and Brommapojkarna again, none of whom rank close to Hammarby’s level. Facing a side of Hammarby’s quality is a different test entirely.
Hammarby average eight corners per game in their last five matches compared to Kalmar’s four. The home side’s pressure-based style forces corner situations regularly, and that volume should continue here. Kalmar commit fewer fouls (six per game) and tend to be disciplined, but their low shot output (12 per game) suggests they will struggle to threaten Warner Hahn in goal.
Both teams have clean sheets in their most recent games, so BTTS is a harder call. Kalmar have kept things tight defensively but rarely score in bunches. We expect Hammarby to find the net at least twice, with Kalmar potentially managing one if they can get Sagoe Jr. into dangerous positions on the break.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hammarby to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hammarby have been one of the more consistent sides in Allsvenskan this season. Their last five results include wins over Elfsborg (2-1) and Hacken (4-1), with a slip against GAIS (0-2) and Mjallby (1-2) being the only blemishes. The 4-1 result against Hacken stands out given that Hacken have been competitive in the upper half of the table.
In the most recent match, a 2-1 win over Elfsborg, Hammarby produced 19 shots, eight corners, and eight interceptions. Abraham and Madjed both scored, and the team showed the kind of attacking cohesion that makes them difficult to contain at home. The 4-2-3-1 shape gives them width and pressing intensity that suits their squad well.
Kalmar arrive on the back of three straight wins, beating Orgryte 3-0, Brommapojkarna 2-0, and AIK 2-0. That is a decent run, but the quality of opposition varied. Their win over AIK was the most credible result, and it showed that Kalmar can be organized and clinical when things go their way.
In the 3-0 win over Orgryte, Carl Gustafsson, Rony Jansson, and Abdussalam Magashy all got on the scoresheet. Kalmar generated 12 shots and six interceptions while keeping their defensive shape solid. Coach Toni Koskela has them playing in a 4-2-3-1 as well, which sets up an interesting tactical mirror against Hammarby.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hammarby vs Kalmar stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Hammarby the Favourite
- Moneyline Hammarby 1.38–1.42 | Kalmar 6.20–6.88
- Draw 4.70–5.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes | No
The bookmakers are aligned with the stats here. Hammarby at around 1.40 is short, but their home record, goal output, and the quality gap between the two sides justify it. The draw price at 5.00 or above reflects how unlikely a stalemate feels given Hammarby’s attacking intent. Kalmar at 6.50 or higher is a long shot for a reason. Their three recent wins came against weaker opposition, and they have not beaten Hammarby in their last two meetings, losing 2-1 in the Svenska Cupen and 4-1 in Allsvenskan 2024.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hammarby Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Warner Hahn
- DF: Frederik Franck Winther, Noah Karl Anders Persson, Hampus Skoglund, Victor Eriksson
- MF: Tesfaldet Tekie, Markus Karlsson
- MF: Nahir Besara, Victor Lind, Montader Madjed
- FW: Paulos Abraham
This 4-2-3-1 setup keeps the double pivot of Tekie and Karlsson anchoring the midfield while Besara, Lind, and Madjed operate in the attacking three. Hahn is the clear first-choice keeper after Felix Jakobsson saw no minutes. Abraham leads the line and is the player most likely to cause problems for Kalmar’s center backs, given his shooting volume and movement. Lind’s assist in the last game also makes him a key creative outlet from the right side.
Kalmar Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Samuel Brolin
- DF: Rony Jansson, Zakarias Ravik, Victor Larsson, Aboubacar Keita
- MF: Robert Gojani, Melker Hallberg
- MF: Carl Gustafsson, Charlie Rosenquist, Abdussalam Magashy
- FW: Anthony Olusanya
Kalmar mirror Hammarby’s 4-2-3-1 shape, with Gojani and Hallberg providing defensive cover in the double pivot. Gustafsson scored in the last match and brings a physical presence to midfield, while Magashy offers energy and direct running. Olusanya leads the line and recorded three shots in the last game, making him Kalmar’s main outlet in transition. Charles Sagoe Jr., who contributed two assists recently, could push for a starting role on the flank.
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Kalmar. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a Hammarby win, and the data backs it up at every level. They have scored 23 goals in ten league games, produce nearly 19 shots per match in recent form, and have already beaten Kalmar twice in their last two meetings by a combined score of 6-2. Kalmar’s form is decent but built on results against the bottom of the table.
To be honest, the only real threat Kalmar pose is on the counter through Olusanya and Sagoe Jr. If Hammarby’s fullbacks push high and leave space in behind, there is a chance Kalmar nick a goal. That is exactly why we lean toward BTTS Yes rather than a clean sheet for the home side. Hammarby’s 8 corners per game average also makes Over 8.5 corners a sensible add, given their pressing and wide play.
Our top pick is Hammarby to win both halves, supported by Over 2.5 goals. The home side are too well-organized and too sharp in front of goal to let this one stay tight for long.
