Liam Duckstein
Two of Europe’s strongest nations meet in Miami for the World Cup 2026 third-place play-off. Both France and England arrived at this stage after semifinal exits, and while the bronze medal match rarely carries the same weight as the final, pride and ranking points give this one genuine stakes. France are the clear favorites, having won six of their last seven matches, but England have enough quality to make this uncomfortable.
Keep an eye on Kylian Mbappé, who has scored four goals and added three assists across the last five matches for France, and Jude Bellingham, who leads England with five goals and one assist in the same period.
France have attempted 90 shots across their last five games compared to England’s 58, a difference that tells you a lot about how these two teams operate. That shot volume from Les Bleus is a standout number heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | World Cup 2026 – Third Place |
| 🏟 Venue: | Miami Stadium, Miami |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:00 CEST |
France vs England Prediction
France have been the more consistent side throughout this tournament. Their 82% win rate across 11 matches in 2026 dwarfs England’s 60%, and their attacking output has been significantly higher. Didier Deschamps has a squad that can hurt teams in multiple ways, with Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé combining for eight goals and four assists over the last five games. The 4-2-3-1 shape both teams favor means the midfield battle will be tight, but France’s ball movement is sharper, with 2,635 total passes and a pass accuracy of 2,301 completions compared to England’s 2,272 passes and 1,994 completions.
England do have a red card in their last five matches and have conceded in their most recent game, a 1-2 loss to Argentina. Thomas Tuchel’s side can score, as ten goals in five games confirms, but their defensive structure has shown cracks. France, despite their own semifinal defeat to Spain, have the firepower to expose those gaps. We predict a France win here, with both teams likely to find the net given England’s attacking intent and France’s occasional vulnerability at the back.
France commit more fouls on average across recent matches, with 57 total compared to England’s 49, and they have earned six yellow cards to England’s six as well. England generate more free kick situations with 66 free kicks conceded versus France’s 53, which could give Bellingham and company some set-piece opportunities. France’s corner count of 38 to England’s 19 shows how much more France press forward and force play into wide areas, and that pressure should translate into a positive result for Deschamps’ side.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Kylian Mbappé to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
France enter this match having gone six wins from seven across the last 30 days. Their only blemish was a 0-2 loss to Spain in the semifinal. Before that, they beat Morocco 2-0, Paraguay 1-0, Sweden 3-0, and Norway 4-1. The Spain result was an outlier in what has otherwise been a dominant campaign. Mbappé has been central to everything going forward, and Michael Olise has quietly contributed two assists with 12 shots and strong passing numbers throughout the group and knockout stages.
England’s recent run shows five wins from seven games over the last 30 days, with one draw and one loss. The defeat came in the semifinal against Argentina, going down 1-2 after wins over Norway (2-1), Mexico (3-2), D.R. Congo (2-1), and Panama (2-0) in the earlier rounds. Bellingham has been their standout performer with five goals, while Anthony Gordon has chipped in with a goal and three assists. The Argentina loss exposed some defensive fragility, and Jordan Pickford will need to be sharp in Miami with France’s attack lined up against him.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | France | England |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 10 | 10 |
| Total shots | 90 | 58 |
| Free kicks | 53 | 66 |
| Corner kicks | 38 | 19 |
| Total fouls | 57 | 49 |
| Interceptions | 47 | 31 |
| Offsides | 9 | 10 |
🚨Check out our dedicated France vs England stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: France the Favourite
- Moneyline France 1.91 | England 3.82
- Draw 3.87
- Over/Under Over 2.5 – available at major bookmakers | Under 2.5 – available at major bookmakers
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes – available at major bookmakers | No – available at major bookmakers
France at around 1.91 reflects their status as the stronger side on paper, and to be honest, that price looks fair given their form. England at 3.82 carries some value if you believe Bellingham can drag his team into this one, but the shot volume and corner data lean heavily toward France controlling large portions of this match. The draw at 3.87 is an option worth noting given England’s ability to stay compact, but France’s attacking depth makes a stalemate the least likely outcome here.
Possible Starting Lineups
France Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Mike Maignan
- DF: Jules Koundé, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, Lucas Digne
- MF: Aurelien Tchouameni, Adrien Rabiot, Michael Olise
- FW: Ousmane Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé, Bradley Barcola
Mike Maignan starts in goal having played every minute across the last five games. The back four picks itself, with Koundé and Digne providing width, while Upamecano and Saliba form a composed central partnership. Tchouameni and Rabiot sit in the double pivot, giving France a solid base from which Olise can operate with creative freedom behind the front three. Mbappé leads the attack, and Dembélé on the right has been one of the tournament’s most dangerous wide players. France line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape.
England Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jordan Pickford
- DF: Ezri Konsa, Marc Guehi, John Stones, Djed Spence
- MF: Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson, Jude Bellingham
- FW: Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane, Anthony Gordon
Jordan Pickford has started every match and made 12 saves across the last five games, making him the undisputed first choice. Guehi has been reliable at the heart of defence with 322 passes completed, while Konsa adds defensive solidity alongside him. Declan Rice anchors the midfield, with Elliot Anderson providing energy and Bellingham given license to push forward. Kane leads the line with four goals in five games, and Gordon’s three assists make him a genuine threat from wide areas. Tuchel will likely stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has served England well throughout the tournament.
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England. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
France are the better team on the numbers and the form heading into this third-place play-off. Their shot volume, corner count, and pass accuracy all point to a side that dominates possession and creates more from open play. England have the individual quality to score, and Bellingham in particular is the kind of player who can change a game on his own. We predict a France win, with both teams scoring. A 2-1 or 2-1 scoreline in France’s favor feels like the most natural outcome given how both squads have performed across this World Cup. Backing France to win and both teams to score offers the best combination of value and probability here.
Read Also: France vs England: Predicted Lineups – 2026-18-07
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