Between the final two rounds of the UEFA Champions League and Europa League, top clubs will play one match each in their domestic competitions. Can the favorites navigate this challenging period without dropping points? Where is an upset most likely? The TipsGG analytical team has prepared its traditional digest with betting picks for the main games of the weekend – January 24 and 25.
Bayern Munich vs Augsburg
Vincent Kompany’s side comfortably handled Royal Union SG in the Champions League, despite playing with ten men for the final 30 minutes. Having secured their place in the Round of 16 with a game to spare, the Munich side remains at home to host a Bundesliga underdog. Bookmakers predict another blowout, and the 1.1 odds for a “Star of the South” victory speak for themselves. Bayern’s productivity is impressive: 71 goals in 18 rounds with a goal difference of +57. Interestingly, Harry Kane alone has scored more this season than the entire visiting squad combined.
Augsburg sits in 15th place, with only a three-point cushion over the relegation zone. Recent statistics (three draws and two losses) offer little optimism. The Fuggerstädter are a typical home team: 12 of their 16 points have been earned on their own turf. In their last head-to-head meeting, Sandro Wagner’s men showed character, fighting back from 0:3 down to score two goals. Will they have the strength to repeat such a scenario at the Allianz Arena?
Given the German giant’s tendency to significantly ramp up after the break, it is logical to consider options specifically for the second half of the game.
Match Bet: 2nd Half. Bayern Munich: Total Over 1.5 (Odds: 1.7)
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim
At Deutsche Bank Park, the currently struggling Eintracht hosts a Hoffenheim side that has demonstrated consistently high-quality play this season.
The Frankfurt side plays an open, sometimes overly adventurous style of football, which recently hasn’t translated into results. This is precisely why the club management took the radical step of sacking Dino Toppmöller. Tellingly, the “Eagles” are the second-best team in the Bundesliga in terms of goals scored (38), but simultaneously have the worst defense in the league alongside Heidenheim (39 conceded).
A Champions League defeat definitively buried Eintracht’s hopes for a European spring, and the team exited the DFB-Pokal even earlier, losing to Borussia Dortmund on penalties. Thus, Frankfurt must focus exclusively on the league, but a coaching change is unlikely to instantly solve systemic problems in defense and game organization.
Hoffenheim fully deserves its place in the Champions League zone. Quality team play, a clear structure, and the inconsistency of rivals give reason to believe that Die Kraichgauer have a real chance to play in the most prestigious European competition for the first time since the 2018/19 season.
Since November, the Sinsheim side has lost only once – to Borussia Dortmund (0:2) – while in other matches, they recorded 6 wins and 2 draws. Their away form is particularly noteworthy: based on results outside their home stadium, Hoffenheim is the third-best team in the Bundesliga.
In this pair, the visitors look like the favorite – it’s no coincidence that as the match approaches, the odds for their victory are gradually falling. even after coaching rotation, it’s difficult to find arguments for Eintracht to overcome the systemic nature and form of the current Hoffenheim. The “Eagles'” problems haven’t disappeared, while Die Kraichgauer clearly know what they are fighting for.
Match Bet: Hoffenheim to Win (Odds: 2.35)
Manchester City vs Wolverhampton
At the Etihad Stadium, a seemingly un-intriguing clash takes place between one of the main title contenders and an outright underdog. However, the Citizens’ squad problems in defense and the Wolves’ current form add much more intrigue to this match than might appear at first glance.
Following a shameful defeat in Norway, and a derby loss before that, Guardiola’s men will seek satisfaction. And it seems a team from the bottom of the table is perfectly suited for the role of “victim.” However, Wolverhampton clearly has its own plans – the visitors approach the game on a five-match unbeaten streak in all competitions.
The Wolves last defeated Manchester City in 2023. Since then, the teams have met four times, and each time the Citizens celebrated victory: twice in blowouts (5:1 and 4:0) and twice narrowly (1:0 and 2:1). Nevertheless, the current Manchester City is far from its optimal state, especially in the defensive line.
In December, Wolverhampton looked very respectable in matches against other top-table representatives – Arsenal and Liverpool – losing to both opponents by a score of only 2:1. Something similar, but with a “plus” sign for the visitors, can be fully expected this time as well.
Problems with squad selection in defense, less recovery time, and psychological pressure after unsuccessful matches clearly do not favor the hosts. Underestimating a “cornered beast,” which Wolverhampton currently is, is definitely not worth it. That is why the option with a positive handicap looks completely justified, and for risk-takers, one could even try to play on the visitors not losing.
Match Bet: Wolverhampton Handicap (+2) (Odds: 1.79)
Alternative Match Bet: Wolverhampton Double Chance (X2) (Odds: 4.40)
Fulham vs Brighton
At Craven Cottage, a meeting of neighbors in the standings will take place: the “Cottagers” and “Seagulls” occupy 11th and 12th positions respectively. This match is a classic battle for a spot in the top half of the table, as the difference between the teams is only one point.
The opponents have almost identical tournament records. Fulham has earned one point more than Brighton (31 vs 30), the teams perform identically in home matches – 20 points each. Even in away matches, the difference is minimal: the “Cottagers” lead the “Seagulls” by only one point (11 vs 10).
Historically, Fulham feels quite confident at home in matches against Brighton. The last time the “Cottagers” dropped points at Craven Cottage against this opponent was in 2020 (0:0), and the last defeat dates back to 2017 (1:2). In the current season, Brighton has achieved only two away wins, drawn four times, and suffered five defeats. Fulham looks significantly more stable in home matches – six wins, two draws, and three losses, with four of the six victories being narrow ones.
All this similarity in figures and play style leads to the thought of a maximum-level parity match, in which a slight advantage will still be on the side of the home team. The most logical outcome looks like a draw or a narrow Fulham victory.
Match Bet: Fulham to Win by 1 goal or Draw (Odds: 1.91)
Valencia vs Espanyol
At the Mestalla, teams will meet that could be considered roughly equal by name. However, at the current moment, the collectives are solving diametrically opposite tasks. Valencia is only one point ahead of the relegation zone, while Espanyol continues the fight for European spots, sitting in fifth place in the standings.
Both teams started the new year with defeats. The “Bats,” after opening the score, ultimately suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Celta. The “Parrots” generally looked decent in the Catalan derby against Barcelona, but conceded two goals at the end of the meeting. Next, both collectives drew with La Liga newcomers – Valencia shared points with Elche (1:1), and Espanyol with Levante (1:1).
After this, the team results went different ways. Valencia achieved two important victories – in the Cup over Burgos (2:0) and in the league over a direct rival in the survival battle, Getafe (1:0). In contrast, Espanyol suffered a defeat in another Catalan confrontation – against Girona (0:2), with both goals conceded from penalties.
A fairly even match is expected, in which a slight advantage in result can be given to the visitors. However, for a bet, I suggest paying attention not to the outcome of the game, but to corner statistics. It is Valencia that is in a more difficult tournament position, so the hosts will be forced to play more actively and take more risks.
Moreover, in the last five home matches, the “Bats” have only once failed to surpass their opponent in the number of corners – 2-2 in the match against Sevilla. In other matches, the advantage was significant: 8–6, 12–3, 7–0, 7–2.
Match Bet: Valencia Corner Handicap (-1) (Odds: 1.82)
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Union’s last three matches ended in draws, and a total streak of five matches without defeat indicates the team’s serious intentions to interfere in the fight for the European zone. The “Iron Ones” remain an extremely resilient opponent, conceding no more than two goals per game on average. It is important to emphasize that the Berliners’ home form is significantly better than their away form: on their own field, they have a positive goal difference. An additional advantage for the hosts is the freshness factor, as they had two more days for recovery after the previous round.
Borussia Dortmund arrives in Berlin after an unsuccessful trip to London, where they lost to Tottenham in the Champions League. An early conceded goal and Svensson’s red card effectively dashed the “Bumblebees'” hopes for a positive result in that meeting. In the Bundesliga, the classic pursuit of Bayern continues, but an 11-point gap makes Dortmund’s title chances quite ghost-like, especially considering the phenomenal form of the Munich side.
Although the difference in the class of performers and tactical preparation makes Borussia the favorite, its desire to rehabilitate itself for the defeat against Tottenham might run into organized resistance from the Berliners. Union’s physical strength and reliable defense indicate that a difficult test awaits the visitors, rather than an easy stroll.
Match Bet: Borussia Dortmund to Win by 1 goal or Draw (Odds: 1.85)
Villarreal vs Real Madrid
The “Yellow Submarine,” after a surprise defeat to Ajax in the Champions League, has definitively lost even the mathematical chance of reaching the playoffs. Now Marcelino’s side has only one priority tournament where they must demonstrate their maximum, and so far, they are succeeding quite well. The current third place in the table (leading Atletico Madrid on tiebreakers) is a result few expected at the start of the season. The team spent the last five rounds of the championship with mixed success: three wins alternated with two losses to Barcelona and Betis. It can be stated that this year Villarreal has earned a reputation as a home collective: within their native walls, they score an average of 2.3 goals per match, while conceding less than one goal.
Real Madrid, inspired by a blowout victory over Monaco, approaches the confrontation as the obvious favorite. The “Whites'” tournament motivation is through the roof, as the gap to the leader is only one point. It is worth noting that Kylian Mbappé has fully recovered from injury: in the last two games, he already has three goals to his credit. Overall, matches involving the Madrid side have recently impressed with high scoring – an average of 4.1 goals per game (statistics of the last 10 meetings), despite the fact that opponents were often teams with quite reliable defenses.
Head-to-head duels between these rivals usually give spectators a real goal extravaganza, and this match is unlikely to be an exception. The Madrid defense is not flawless, so the probability of a conceded goal is high. In that case, the visitors will be forced to attack even more aggressively to score more than their opponent.
Match Bet: Match Total Over 3 (Odds: 1.79)
Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca
A real battle – that is how one can characterize the “Mattress Makers'” previous match in Istanbul. 22 fouls and 7 yellow cards turned the football match into a spectacle worthy of MMA fans. Despite the massive energy expenditure, the result preserved Atletico’s chances of reaching the top 8 of the Champions League group stage. In the domestic championship, Diego Simeone’s men occupy fourth place, which looks somewhat unusual given their historical achievements.
Mallorca managed to collect 7 points in the last five rounds, which allowed the team to pull away from the relegation zone by two points. The last match against Athletic Bilbao was a true demonstration of character: they not only overcame the favorite but completely outplayed them in terms of content. Three goals scored and total dominance in the second half instilled confidence in the fans that the team has finally found its game.
Since this is an early match of the game day, statistics indicate their traditionally lower scoring compared to evening slots. Atletico players are exhausted by a difficult away trip, and the history of head-to-head meetings shows that Mallorca has always been a “bone in the throat” for the Madrid side, imposing a struggle on every patch of the field.
Match Bet: Atletico Madrid to Win by 1 goal or Draw – Odds: 2.3
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
Liam Rosenior’s debut as Chelsea’s head coach came during an away trip to Charlton; the Championship club was defeated comfortably in the FA Cup. Then they lost to Arsenal in the League Cup and confidently beat Brentford in the EPL. Liam Rosenior’s team is unlikely to be embodying his ideas just yet, but the boys prepared by Maresca look very decent.
But Oliver Glasner’s Crystal Palace is no longer at its peak. after an incredible start to the season, when they won the Community Shield against Manchester City and were among the leaders and almost didn’t lose to the “Big Four,” a slump occurred. In the last five rounds – three defeats and two draws. Nevertheless, the “Eagles” always fight, cling on, and impose a struggle even on the most serious opponents.
Crystal Palace drew with Aston Villa and lost to Sunderland by a score of 1:2. They will cause problems for Chelsea too. I think we will see an exchange of goals and a high score.
Match Bet: Both Teams to Score and Total Goals Over 2.5 (Odds: 2.0)
Arsenal vs Manchester United
Michael Carrick, an ex-Manchester United player and now one can say – a symbol, has come to lead the “Red Devils.” He debuted brilliantly – crushing Pep Guardiola in the Manchester derby. Manchester United dominated the whole match and scored five goals past Ederson, though only two were counted – 2:0. Но quality of the play and the legitimacy of the victory are not diminished by this.
And now, such a reborn Manchester heads to London. Visiting the sole leader and main title contender. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal is strict and pragmatic. Sometimes even too much; for example, in the last round they could have beaten Nottingham Forest, but turned on the speed too late and earned a clean-sheet draw. A second consecutive 0:0 draw in the EPL, which once again confirms – Arsenal thinks about preserving their own net first.
No one will start taking risks here. Carrick doesn’t have the experience yet, Arteta has an overly motivated opponent. To start, they need to cool the “Devils'” fervor and turn the match into a game of chess. And a seven-point lead allows them not to be upset even by a draw.
Match Bet: Total Goals Under 2.5 (Odds: 2.12)
Juventus vs Napoli
Napoli is in a fierce struggle for the Scudetto with Inter Milan; Juventus, in turn, is trying to burst into this race and simultaneously fighting for the top 4 in the Italian Championship. At the moment, the hosts are on the rise; the team has caught its rhythm and cold-bloodedly collects points, especially in home games. Moreover, they are quite motivated by the victory over Benfica in the Champions League and will approach this battle in high spirits.
It is absolutely necessary for Napoli to take points in this game to continue the fight for the Scudetto on paper. A defeat to Juventus will definitively throw Antonio Conte’s collective out of the championship race. Therefore, referring to this aspect, Napoli will clearly arrive in Turin for the victory.
In Turin, we might see a real shootout in both directions, where ultimately Juventus will not surrender the victory to the guests, but will also be unable to win this game against the reigning champion of Italy. Still, I won’t highlight a specific winner in this pair and will give my vote for bright-on-goals dynamic football.
Match Bet: Total Over 2.5 (Odds: 2.52)