Alex MacQuoid
Hammarby sit second in the Allsvenskan table with 23 points from 11 games, and they’ve been in terrific domestic shape lately, winning all three of their last 30-day fixtures. Degerfors, by contrast, occupy 13th place and arrive on the back of two straight defeats, including a 0-2 home loss to Vasteras SK just days ago. The gap in class looks wide on paper, but it’s worth noting that these two sides drew 1-1 when they last met at this exact fixture in 2025, a result that came in despite Hammarby being priced as heavy favorites. Degerfors are a stubborn side and have shown they can grind out points against bigger opponents, though their current form makes it hard to argue they’re capable of doing so consistently.
Paulos Abraham is the man to watch for Hammarby. He’s scored twice in his last two appearances and leads the attack with directness and physical presence. For Degerfors, Bilal Hussein has been one of their more active midfielders, racking up seven interceptions across the last two matches and providing defensive structure in a team that badly needs it.
Hot stat: Hammarby scored four goals in their last match against Hacken and have netted 25 goals in just 11 league games this season, averaging over two per game. That’s the kind of output that makes them genuinely dangerous at home.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Allsvenskan 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | 3Arena, Stockholm |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:30 CEST |
Hammarby vs Degerfors prediction
Hammarby winning this match is the obvious call, and the stats back it up at every level. They’ve conceded just nine goals across 11 league games this season, and their attacking numbers are the best outside of league leaders Sirius. Henrik Rydström’s side plays a structured 4-2-3-1 that transitions quickly and creates volume in the final third, something Degerfors have struggled to contain all season.
Degerfors have managed just nine goals in ten league games and have failed to score in three of their last five matches. Their pass accuracy in recent games sits at 677 out of 830 passes, noticeably lower than Hammarby’s 1,106 out of 1,238, which tells you something about their ability to build and sustain pressure. Henok Goitom’s side commits 34 fouls across their last two games compared to Hammarby’s 20, meaning they’ll likely spend time defending set pieces and free kicks in dangerous areas. That’s a problem when you’re facing a side as organized and clinical as Hammarby.
We think the total goals market is worth targeting. Hammarby score freely, Degerfors defend poorly, and the home side will have significant territorial dominance. Both teams to score feels less certain given how toothless Degerfors have been in front of goal recently.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hammarby to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hammarby have been in excellent shape across their last five league outings. They beat Kalmar 2-0 and Elfsborg 2-1 in their most recent two games, and before that put four past Hacken. The only real blemish was a 0-2 defeat to GAIS, which came sandwiched between wins and looks like an outlier rather than a pattern. Their 4-2-3-1 shape gives them defensive solidity through a double pivot while allowing the wide forwards and number ten to create freely. Abraham’s form in front of goal has been a genuine boost, and Victor Lind’s assist contribution from the left adds another creative dimension. Hammarby look well-organized and confident heading into this one.
Degerfors have been inconsistent and, honestly, fragile. Their last five results include a win over Lillestrom, a draw with GAIS, and three defeats. The 0-1 loss to Malmo and the 0-2 loss to Vasteras SK in their two most recent matches are concerning because they couldn’t even score in either game. Their 4-4-2 shape relies on compactness and quick transitions, but the attacking output just hasn’t been there. Arman Taranis leads their forward line but has managed four shots across two games without finding the net. Matvei Igonen in goal has made two saves in those matches, which suggests Degerfors haven’t exactly been under siege, but the team’s inability to create anything meaningful upfront is their biggest issue right now.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hammarby vs Degerfors stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Hammarby the favourite
- Moneyline Hammarby 1.25 | Degerfors 10.50
- Draw 5.65
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers have Hammarby at around 1.25 across the board, which reflects the 74% win probability assigned to them. That’s a short price, but given the form gap and the home advantage, it’s hard to argue with. The draw at 5.65 is interesting given what happened in their last meeting, though Degerfors’ current output makes a repeat of that 1-1 scoreline look unlikely. The away win at 10.50-12.00 is a long shot in every sense. We think the value, if any, sits in the Hammarby clean sheet market rather than the straight moneyline.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hammarby possible starting eleven
- GK: Warner Hahn
- DF: Frederik Franck Winther, Victor Eriksson, Noah Karl Anders Persson, Hampus Skoglund
- MF: Tesfaldet Tekie, Markus Karlsson, Nahir Besara, Frank Junior Adjei
- FW: Paulos Abraham, Montader Madjed
Warner Hahn keeps his place in goal after two clean-sheet-contributing performances. The back four picks itself, with Victor Eriksson and Frederik Franck Winther providing the most passing volume in defense. Tesfaldet Tekie and Markus Karlsson form the double pivot, offering protection and distribution. Nahir Besara operates in the ten role, linking play between midfield and attack. Paulos Abraham is the standout name here, two goals in two games and looking sharp. Montader Madjed provides pace and directness from the second striker position. Hammarby will likely press high in a 4-2-3-1 and look to exploit Degerfors’ defensive vulnerabilities early.
Degerfors possible starting eleven
- GK: Matvei Igonen
- DF: Sebastian Ohlsson, Daniel Sundgren, Samba Diatara, Mamadouba Diaby
- MF: Bilal Hussein, Kazper Karlsson, Nahom Girmai, Ludvig Fritzson
- FW: Arman Taranis, Dijan Vukojevic
Matvei Igonen starts in goal despite picking up a yellow card recently. The back four is built around Sebastian Ohlsson’s experience and Samba Diatara’s physicality. Bilal Hussein is arguably Degerfors’ most important player right now, his seven interceptions across two games suggest he’s the one doing the defensive heavy lifting in midfield. Kazper Karlsson alongside him brings some passing range, though his seven fouls across two games shows how stretched they can get under pressure. Arman Taranis leads the line but will need to be sharper in front of goal. Henok Goitom will likely set up in a defensive 4-4-2 shape and hope to frustrate Hammarby, though that approach has not worked in their recent defeats.
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Degerfors. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Hammarby are the clear pick here. Their form over the last 30 days is perfect, three wins from three, and their season stats show a team that creates and converts at a level Degerfors simply cannot match. The visitors have scored just nine goals in ten league games and blanked in three of their last five. Hammarby’s defensive record of nine goals conceded across 11 games is among the best in the division, and Warner Hahn has been reliable between the posts.
The head-to-head history is thin, two meetings in 2025 with Hammarby winning one and drawing the other, but the current form gap is more telling than historical precedent. Degerfors commit fouls, lose the ball frequently, and struggle to build through pressure. Against a side that presses as aggressively as Hammarby, that combination is going to cause problems.
We’re backing Hammarby to win to nil. Their attacking quality, home advantage, and Degerfors’ inability to score in recent matches all point in the same direction. Over 2.5 goals in the match is also worth considering given Hammarby’s scoring rate. Honestly, the only real question is the margin.
