Liam Duckstein
Chongqing Tongliangloong welcome Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to Tongliangloong Stadium on June 27, in what looks like a fairly comfortable home assignment on paper. Chongqing sit third in the Chinese Super League table with 23 points from 14 games, while Tianjin occupy 15th place with just 14 points. The gap in league position tells most of the story, but Tianjin’s recent 4-6 loss to lower-ranked Rizhao Yuqi raises genuine questions about their defensive reliability heading into this one.
Keep an eye on Landry Dimata for Chongqing. The Belgian forward has contributed a goal and an assist across his last two appearances and brings a physical presence that Tianjin’s back line struggled to handle in their previous outing. For the visitors, Wang Zhenghao is worth noting, as the defender has chipped in with a goal recently and adds an unexpected threat at set pieces.
Hot stat: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger conceded six goals in their most recent match against Rizhao Yuqi, a team ranked considerably lower. That kind of defensive fragility is hard to ignore when assessing their chances away from home.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Chinese Super League 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Tongliangloong Stadium, Chongqing |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 14:00 CEST |
Chongqing Tongliangloong vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger Prediction
Chongqing carry a 41% win rate across 22 league matches this season, which is solid in the context of a competitive CSL field. Tianjin, by contrast, have won just 3 of their 23 outings for a 13% win rate. The home side’s form strip reads well too, with five wins from their last seven recorded results. Tianjin’s recent form is patchy at best, and their away record gives little reason for confidence.
We predict a Chongqing win here. The home advantage, the difference in league position, and Tianjin’s defensive collapse in their last game all point in the same direction. The odds around 1.92-1.95 for a Chongqing win represent fair value given the broader picture.
Looking at style of play, Chongqing averaged 300 passes in their last tracked match with an 18-foul count, suggesting they press actively and are not shy about physical duels. Tianjin averaged just 219 passes and committed only 9 fouls, which points to a more passive, reactive setup. Chongqing’s higher corner count (5 vs 8 for Tianjin, though Tianjin’s came in a chaotic high-scoring game) and greater shot volume suggest they control territory well at home. That territory dominance makes corners and set piece opportunities likely, supporting a bet on corners going over.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Chongqing Tongliangloong to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Chongqing Tongliangloong have shown they can grind out results and also attack with intent. Their most recent match was a 2-0 win over Shanghai Jiading Huilong, a clean and controlled performance. Before that, they lost 2-3 to Beijing Guoan, a team ranked among the top sides in Asia, so that defeat carries less weight. Prior to that loss, they strung together wins over Qingdao Hainiu and held Yunnan Yukun to a goalless draw. Coach Liu Jianye has his team playing with structure, and the foreign contingent of Lucas Cavalcante, Landry Dimata, and Alexandru Cîmpanu adds technical quality across the pitch.
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger’s last five matches tell a mixed story. The 4-6 loss to Rizhao Yuqi is the most alarming result, a game where they scored four but still lost, highlighting a defensive setup that simply cannot hold shape. Before that, they beat Dalian Yingbo 1-0, which showed they can be pragmatic. A 1-1 draw with Shanghai Port and a 1-2 loss to Henan and Chengdu round out a run that shows flashes of output but no consistency. Coach Yu Genwei will need a significant defensive improvement to get anything from this trip to Chongqing.
🚨Check out our dedicated Chongqing Tongliangloong vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Chongqing Tongliangloong the favourite
- Moneyline Chongqing Tongliangloong 1.95 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 4.20
- Draw 3.10
The bookmakers have Chongqing at roughly 49% implied probability, and we think that is on the conservative side. A team sitting third in the table, playing at home against a side with a 13% win rate on the season, should arguably be priced shorter. The draw odds around 3.10 reflect genuine uncertainty, given the earlier 0-0 result between these two, but Tianjin’s recent defensive issues make a repeat stalemate less likely. The away win at 4.20 looks like a fair reflection of Tianjin’s actual chances right now.
Possible Starting Lineups
Chongqing Tongliangloong possible starting eleven
- GK: Yao Haoyang
- DF: Lucas Cavalcante Silva Afonso, Wei Suowei, Zhang Yingkai, Ruan Qilong
- MF: Ibrahim Amadou, Wu Yongqiang, Zhang Zhixiong, Alexandru Cîmpanu
- FW: Landry Dimata, Xiang Yuwang
Chongqing look most likely to line up in a 4-4-2, matching their preferred shape from recent outings. Yao Haoyang has logged full 90-minute shifts and is the clear first-choice goalkeeper. The back four picks itself based on playing time, with Lucas Cavalcante being particularly important given his goal contribution and 180 minutes of action across the last two games. In midfield, Ibrahim Amadou provides the defensive anchor, while Alexandru Cîmpanu has been the creative spark with two assists recently. Up front, Dimata and Xiang Yuwang form an effective partnership, with Dimata being the one to watch for a goal.
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger possible starting eleven
- GK: Yan Bingliang
- DF: Wang Xianjun, Yang Fan, Aitor Cordoba Querejeta, Sun Ming-Him
- MF: Bruno Xadas, Chen Zhexuan, Huang Jiahui, Jaume Grau
- FW: Alberto Quiles, Liu Junxian
Tianjin also deploy a 4-4-2. Yan Bingliang takes the goalkeeper spot based on recorded appearances. In defence, Aitor Cordoba Querejeta scored in his last appearance and brings an attacking threat from the back, while Yang Fan has been involved in build-up play with an assist to his name. Bruno Xadas pulls the strings in midfield and will be Tianjin’s main creative outlet. Alberto Quiles led their shot count with three attempts in his last game and is the most likely source of goals for the visitors. Tianjin’s yellow card count is a concern, with Yang Fan and Jaume Grau both on bookings recently, meaning disciplinary issues could disrupt their shape.
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Tianjin Jinmen Tiger. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Chongqing Tongliangloong are the clear pick to win this match. Their league position, home record, and quality across the squad all point to a home victory. Tianjin arrive having just shipped six goals to a lower-ranked side, and their pass accuracy and interception numbers from recent games are well below Chongqing’s, suggesting they will struggle to control the tempo away from home.
We predict Chongqing to win, with both teams finding the net. Tianjin have scored in four of their last five matches, and Chongqing’s defensive record is not spotless either, so goals at both ends is a reasonable expectation. Chongqing scoring in both halves is our hot tip, given how Tianjin tend to concede throughout games rather than in concentrated spells. Over 2.5 goals and corners over 8.5 round out the recommended markets, backed by Chongqing’s territorial dominance and Tianjin’s tendency to concede set-piece situations.
