Liam Duckstein
The Sichuan derby carries real stakes this round. Chengdu Better City sit unbeaten at the top of the Chinese Super League 2026 standings, and they welcome fourth-placed Chongqing Tongliangloong to the Wuliangye Cultural and Sports Center. A win here would extend the gap between these two sides to twelve points, so Chongqing arrive with genuine motivation to close that distance. The previous meeting between these sides this season ended 3-3, which is a reminder that this fixture can produce goals even when the form tables suggest a mismatch.
Wei Shihao is the name to watch for Chengdu. The forward has scored four goals across his last three appearances and leads the attack with real directness. For Chongqing, Xiang Yuwang has three goals in three matches and is the primary outlet their side relies on to stay competitive against stronger opponents.
The hot stat from recent matches: Chengdu have scored eight goals across their last five games while conceding just once from open play in their most recent outing, a 1-1 draw with Qingdao Hainiu. Their attack has been consistently productive at home, and the numbers back that up across the full season with 27 goals scored in 17 league games.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Chinese Super League 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Wuliangye Cultural and Sports Center Professional Football Field, Chengdu |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 14:00 CEST |
Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliangloong Prediction
Chengdu Better City are the clear value pick here. They are unbeaten through 17 league matches, they have nine draws on their record but zero losses, and at home they have been particularly hard to break down. John Aloisi’s side plays a 4-2-3-1 system and their pass accuracy and shot volume in recent games far exceeds what Chongqing have managed.
Chongqing lost their most recent match 1-3 to Liaoning Tieren, and that defeat came after a run of draws that showed they struggle to impose themselves on better-organised sides. Their away record this season is modest at best, and they arrive here with a squad that has managed only 13 goals in 16 league games.
We predict a Chengdu win, and the most sensible market to back is Chengdu on the moneyline. Their unbeaten home record this season makes the 1.35 range odds reasonable value given the context. Chongqing’s low shot output across five matches (18 total) compared to Chengdu’s 45 tells its own story about where the pressure will come from.
Chengdu commit fouls freely (21 across five matches) but have kept their disciplinary record manageable with seven yellow cards. Chongqing are notably cleaner in terms of fouls (17) and yellow cards (just one), but their ball retention is weaker with a pass accuracy of 595 compared to Chengdu’s 641. That difference in possession quality should allow Chengdu to control tempo and create the openings they need. Chongqing have also picked up one red card in recent matches, which adds a further defensive risk for them in a match they need to stay compact in.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Chengdu Better City to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 1.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Chengdu Better City have gone nine matches without a defeat in their most recent league run, collecting a mix of wins and draws that has kept them firmly at the top of the table. Their last five results include victories over Shenzhen Peng City (3-2), Shanghai Zetian (4-0), and Shandong Taishan (1-0), alongside a draw with Qingdao Hainiu. The only slip in that period was a 0-2 home defeat to Dalian Yingbo, which remains their only loss in the entire season.
Their most recent outing, a 1-1 draw at home to Qingdao Hainiu, was a controlled performance where they failed to convert their chances cleanly rather than being dominated. Wei Shihao remains their most dangerous presence, and the team’s 25 corner kicks across five matches shows how often they are pushing into attacking positions.
Chongqing Tongliangloong have had a more mixed run. They beat Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (1-0) and Shanghai Jiading Huilong (2-0) in their recent matches, but they lost 2-3 to Beijing Guoan and suffered a heavy 1-3 defeat to Liaoning Tieren in their last outing. That last result is a concern. Conceding three to a side ranked below them in the table suggests there are defensive vulnerabilities that Chengdu will look to exploit.
Their attacking output across five games has been limited to four goals with only 18 total shots, and Landry Dimata leads their forward line with effort but has yet to register a goal in recent matches. Alexandru Cîmpanu has one goal from five appearances and provides some creativity, but the overall picture is of a team that struggles to generate consistent attacking threat against organised defences.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Chengdu Better City | Chongqing Tongliangloong |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliangloong stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Chengdu Better City the Favourite
- Moneyline Chengdu Better City 1.35 | Chongqing Tongliangloong 8.19
- Draw 5.00
The bookmakers are firmly behind Chengdu here with a 69% win probability assigned to the home side. The odds around 1.35 reflect that confidence. Chongqing at 8.19 with Pinnacle represents the market’s honest assessment of their chances on the road against the league leaders. The draw at 5.00 is notable given that Chengdu have drawn nine of their 17 league matches this season, so that outcome is not entirely without merit. To be honest, the draw market at 5.00 might attract some interest given Chengdu’s tendency to share points, but the home side’s overall dominance and Chongqing’s recent defensive collapse against Liaoning makes a Chengdu win the most logical conclusion.
Possible Starting Lineups
Chengdu Better City Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jian Tao
- DF: Han Pengfei, He Yiran, Hu Hetao, Dong Yanfeng
- MF: Liao Lisheng, Yang Mingyang, Rômulo, Gan Chao
- FW: Wei Shihao, Wang Ziming
Chengdu are expected to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape under John Aloisi. Jian Tao has started in goal across three recent matches and is the clear first choice. Han Pengfei and He Yiran both contributed goals from defensive positions recently, which adds an extra dimension to set-piece situations. Wei Shihao is the standout name in attack, having scored four times in three appearances, and he should lead the line with Wang Ziming offering support. Yang Mingyang brings midfield energy with a goal to his name recently, and Rômulo provides the passing range to connect defence to attack.
Chongqing Tongliangloong Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Yao Haoyang
- DF: Lucas Cavalcante Silva Afonso, Zhang Yingkai, He Xiaoqiang, Liu Mingshi
- MF: Ibrahim Amadou, Zhang Zhixiong, Alexandru Cîmpanu, Landry Dimata
- FW: Xiang Yuwang, Du Yuezheng
Chongqing are likely to set up in their 4-2-3-1 as well, with Yao Haoyang in goal after regular starts in recent fixtures. Lucas Cavalcante Silva Afonso has been the most active defender in terms of passing volume and should anchor the backline alongside Zhang Yingkai. Xiang Yuwang is the key threat up front with three goals in his last three matches, and he will need service from Landry Dimata and Alexandru Cîmpanu to cause problems for Chengdu’s organised defence. Ibrahim Amadou provides physical cover in midfield and will be tasked with slowing Chengdu’s transition play. Michael Ngadeu picked up a red card in recent matches and may face suspension, which would be a further blow to their defensive options.
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Chongqing Tongliangloong. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Chengdu Better City are the standout pick in this fixture. Their unbeaten league record, superior shot output, stronger pass accuracy, and a home crowd behind them all point in one direction. Chongqing have shown they can score in this fixture, as the 3-3 draw earlier this season proved, but their current form heading into this match is poor. A 1-3 defeat in their last outing, low shot numbers, and a suspect defensive record on the road make it very difficult to back them here.
We predict a Chengdu Better City win. The home side has the squad depth, the tactical structure, and the individual quality through Wei Shihao to see this out comfortably. Backing Chengdu to win to nil is the sharpest value in this game given Chongqing’s recent attacking struggles and their tendency to lose shape when under sustained pressure.
