Rafael Nogueira
Gremio and Bolivar meet at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre for the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana 2026 Round of 32 tie. Bolivar won the first leg 3-2 in Porto Alegre, meaning Gremio now need a victory just to stay in the competition. Luís Castro’s side have struggled for consistency in recent weeks, while Alejandro Restrepo’s Bolivar arrive with genuine momentum and a clear tactical identity. Gremio’s Tetê has been their most dangerous attacking outlet, scoring twice across the last five matches and generating 13 total shots, while Bolivar’s Martín Cauteruccio leads his side with five goals in five games and is the primary threat to neutralise.
Hot stat: Bolivar have registered 111 total shots across their last five matches compared to Gremio’s 47, a ratio that reflects a significant difference in attacking output and territorial dominance.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Sudamericana 2026, Round of 32 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre |
| 🗓️ Date: | 31.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Gremio vs Bolivar Prediction
Gremio trail by one goal from the first leg and must attack from the start, which opens space for Bolivar on the counter. Bolivar have won three of their last four matches and lost none in that stretch, while Gremio have lost three of their last six. The Brazilian side’s home advantage is real, but their form does not support the 72% win probability the market assigns them. Bolivar’s pass accuracy across five matches sits at 2,086 completed passes from 2,349 attempted, showing a team that keeps the ball well and can absorb pressure. Gremio, by contrast, completed 1,304 from 1,570 passes, a lower volume and lower accuracy that points to a side that will struggle to dominate possession against a disciplined Bolivar shape.
Bolivar commit 50 fouls across five games compared to Gremio’s 31, which shows Restrepo’s side press and disrupt actively. They have also accumulated just 3 yellow cards versus Gremio’s 9, suggesting Bolivar are effective without being reckless. Gremio’s discipline issues could cost them in a high-stakes leg where composure matters. We predict Bolivar to hold their lead and progress, with Gremio potentially scoring but unable to shut Bolivar out entirely.
- Best value bet: Bolivar to qualify (both teams to score in a Gremio win is possible, but Bolivar advancing offers real value at current odds)
- Back Bolivar or the draw as the safer outcome given the first-leg result and recent form
- Tetê and Cauteruccio are the most likely goalscorers
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bolivar to score in the second half |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Gremio’s last five matches paint a picture of a team fighting inconsistency. They beat Cruzeiro 3-1 and drew with Fluminense 1-1, but lost to Mirassol 1-2, Chapecoense 1-2, and dropped the first leg to Bolivar 2-3 at home. That home defeat to Bolivar is particularly damaging, as it came on their own ground and confirmed the defensive vulnerabilities Castro’s side have shown throughout this period. Across five matches, Gremio have scored just 6 goals and allowed their opponents to find consistent openings. Their shot count of 47 is low, and with only 25 corners generated, they are not creating sustained pressure from wide areas either.
Bolivar arrive in strong shape. They won their most recent match against Real Potosí 2-1, beat Gremio 3-2 in the first leg, and thrashed Guabira 4-0 before that. Their only blemish in recent games is a 1-3 loss to Independiente Rivadavia and a draw with The Strongest. Dairon Asprilla has four goals in five matches and Cauteruccio has five, giving Bolivar two genuine goalscoring threats operating across the front line. Their 27 corners and 111 shots across five matches confirm a team that creates volume and variety in attack. Defensively, Xavier Arreaga leads with 11 interceptions, anchoring a backline that has been solid across most of this run.
🚨Check out our dedicated Gremio vs Bolivar stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Gremio the Favourite
- Moneyline Gremio 1.28 | Bolivar 9.90
- Draw 5.85
The market prices Gremio as heavy favourites at 1.28, but given Bolivar’s first-leg win, their superior recent form, and their 75% win rate over the last 30 days compared to Gremio’s 33%, those odds feel compressed by the home advantage factor alone. Bolivar at 9.90 represents genuine value for a side that won this exact fixture five days ago. The draw at 5.85 is also worth considering if you expect Gremio to level the tie without overturning it. To be honest, the market is overreacting to home advantage here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Gremio Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Weverton Pereira da Silva
- DF: Walter Kannemann, Gustavo Martins, Wagner Leonardo, Luis Eduardo
- MF: Mathias Villasanti, Juan Nardoni, Dodi, Miguel Monsalve
- FW: Tetê, Carlos Vinícius
Castro is likely to set up in a 4-4-2, matching the formation used across recent matches. Weverton Pereira da Silva takes the gloves after accumulating the most saves in the squad over this period. Kannemann and Gustavo Martins form the central defensive partnership, with Luis Eduardo and Wagner Leonardo as fullbacks. Mathias Villasanti is the standout midfielder, contributing two goals and three interceptions across four games. Tetê leads the attack with two goals and 13 shots, making him Gremio’s most important offensive player in this tie. Carlos Vinícius partners him up front, having scored once in two appearances.
Bolivar Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Carlos Lampe
- DF: Xavier Arreaga, José Sagredo, Jesus Manuel Sagredo, Luiz Fernando Paz Vargas
- MF: Carlos Melgar, Leonel Justiniano, Robson Matheus
- FW: Dairon Asprilla, Martín Cauteruccio, Patito Rodríguez
Restrepo’s preferred 4-3-3 gives Bolivar width and attacking depth. Carlos Lampe is the established first choice in goal with 6 saves across five matches. Xavier Arreaga anchors the defence with 11 interceptions, the highest of any outfield player in the squad. In midfield, Carlos Melgar covers the most ground with 268 passes and 12 fouls, acting as a disruptive and creative presence. Cauteruccio leads the attack with five goals and is the primary danger, supported by Asprilla’s four goals from the left. Patito Rodríguez adds three assists to complete an attack that has been consistently productive.
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Gremio. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Gremio need a result to survive, but the stats across the last five matches favour Bolivar in almost every attacking category. Bolivar generate more than double Gremio’s shots, hold the ball better, and carry a one-goal aggregate lead into this second leg. Gremio’s poor run of form, three losses in six, and their inability to keep Bolivar out in the first leg make a straightforward Gremio win difficult to back at 1.28. We predict both teams to score, with Gremio pushing forward and leaving gaps that Cauteruccio and Asprilla will exploit. The most likely outcome is a Gremio win on the night that is not enough to overturn the tie, or Bolivar holding on for a draw and progressing. Back both teams to score and over 2.5 goals as the primary markets, with Bolivar’s qualification as the value play in the outright market.
