Sofia Quijada
O’Higgins welcome Boca Juniors to Estadio El Teniente for the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana 2026 Round of 32 tie. The Chilean side face an uphill battle after losing the first leg 0-1 in Buenos Aires, meaning they must score at least once and avoid conceding to have any chance of advancing. Coach Lucas Bovaglio’s side have been inconsistent domestically, but the home crowd in Rancagua could play a factor. One player to watch is Bastián Yáñez, O’Higgins’ most productive attacker with two goals in the last five matches, while Miguel Merentiel leads Boca’s forward line with two goals in that same span and will be the primary threat on the counter.
Hot stat: O’Higgins have accumulated nine yellow cards across their last five matches, the highest disciplinary count between the two sides, pointing to a physical and aggressive approach that may suit a must-win home leg but also carries suspension risk.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Sudamericana 2026, Round of 32 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio El Teniente, Rancagua |
| 🗓️ Date: | 31.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
O’Higgins vs Boca Juniors Prediction
Boca Juniors enter this second leg holding a 1-0 advantage and have no need to chase the game. Rodolfo Arruabarrena’s side have won three of their last four matches and carry a 75% win rate over the past 30 days. O’Higgins, by contrast, have won just three of their last seven, losing three. The aggregate scoreline means the home side must attack, which opens space for Boca on the break — exactly the scenario the Argentine club tend to exploit.
O’Higgins’ 4-3-3 is possession-light compared to Boca’s 4-2-3-1, and the numbers back this up: Boca average 2,044 pass accuracy units versus O’Higgins’ 1,788 across the last five games. Boca also commit fewer fouls (42 vs 47) and carry fewer cards (1 yellow vs 9), suggesting a more disciplined and controlled unit. O’Higgins’ aggression will generate set pieces — they earned 57 free kicks in five games — but no free kick goals have come from either side recently. With Boca able to absorb pressure and hit on the counter, backing the visitors on the double chance or backing a low-scoring affair makes the most sense.
We predict Boca Juniors to advance, with the match finishing as a tight, low-scoring contest. The most value lies in Under 2.5 goals given both teams scored just four goals each in their last five matches.
- Main Prediction: Boca Juniors to win or draw (Double Chance X2)
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Both Teams to Score: No
- Corners: Over 8.5 (both sides combined 49 corners in five matches each)
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Boca Juniors Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
O’Higgins have been patchy across their recent fixtures. They beat Nublense 1-0 and Universidad Española 2-1, but sandwiched between those results were a 1-2 reverse against Nublense and the first-leg defeat to Boca. Their most recent outing was a 0-2 loss to Deportivo Concepción in the Chilean league, which does little for confidence heading into a must-win European leg. The side has struggled to put together consecutive positive performances, and their defensive record across five games — conceding in multiple matches — gives little indication they can keep a clean sheet against a sharp Boca attack.
Boca Juniors arrive in strong form overall. They beat Sarmiento Junín 2-0 and Athletico PR 1-0 before claiming the first-leg win over O’Higgins. Their only blemish in recent memory is a 0-3 loss to Deportivo Riestra in the Argentine league, which was a clear rotation or off-day result. With the tie in their hands and needing only a draw to progress, Arruabarrena’s squad can afford to be pragmatic. Leandro Paredes has contributed two assists in just two matches, making him a key influence when fit, while Milton Delgado anchors the midfield with 12 interceptions and one assist across five games.
🚨Check out our dedicated O’Higgins vs Boca Juniors stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Boca Juniors the Favourite
- Moneyline O’Higgins 3.74 (avg) | Boca Juniors 1.84 (avg)
- Draw 3.19 (avg)
The bookmakers’ average gives Boca a 47% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with the draw at 27% — meaning the combined probability of Boca not losing sits at roughly 74%. That aligns with the aggregate context: Boca need only avoid defeat to go through. O’Higgins at 3.74 represent the risk-heavy option, and to be honest, the odds are fair given their recent form and the structural disadvantage of needing to overturn a deficit against a better-ranked side.
Possible Starting Lineups
O’Higgins Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Omar Carabali
- DF: Alan Robledo, Miguel Brizuela, Felipe Faundez, Luis Pavez
- MF: Martín Sarrafiore, Juan Leiva, Felipe Ogaz
- FW: Francisco González, Bastián Yáñez, Arnaldo Castillo
O’Higgins are expected to line up in their 4-3-3, with Omar Carabali the most-used goalkeeper across recent matches. Luis Pavez and Felipe Faundez form a reliable defensive pairing on the left and right respectively, each logging heavy minutes. In attack, Bastián Yáñez leads the line with two goals and is the player most likely to create something from nothing. Francisco González adds a second goal threat from the right. Martín Sarrafiore is the midfield engine with the highest shot count (12) of any outfield player and will need to drive forward if O’Higgins are to find an equalizer.
Boca Juniors Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Álvaro Montero
- DF: Jorge Nicolás Figal, Lautaro Blanco, Ayrton Enrique Costa, Lautaro Di Lollo
- MF: Milton Delgado, Santiago Ascacibar, Tomás Aranda
- FW: Alan Velasco, Miguel Merentiel, Kevin Zenon
Boca’s 4-2-3-1 shape gives them defensive compactness while allowing Merentiel to lead the press. Milton Delgado is arguably their most complete midfielder, combining 12 interceptions with a key assist and high pass accuracy (267 out of 286). Santiago Ascacibar covers ground with five total shots and eight free kicks won, adding combativeness in the middle. Alan Velasco on the wing carries a goal and will look to exploit O’Higgins’ high defensive line on the counter. Álvaro Montero starts in goal based on his three recent appearances and seven saves recorded.
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Boca Juniors. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Boca Juniors arrive in Rancagua with a 1-0 first-leg lead, superior form, and a more disciplined squad. O’Higgins must score and avoid conceding — a task that looks difficult given their recent 0-2 loss in their last domestic outing and a season win rate of just 46%. Boca’s defensive structure, evidenced by 43 interceptions in five games (more than O’Higgins’ 38), and their ability to control possession with 87% pass accuracy make them the more complete side. We predict a Boca Juniors win or at worst a draw, with the match producing under 2.5 goals. The X2 double chance at roughly 1.84 or better is the pick, and corners over 8.5 adds secondary value given both teams’ aggressive pressing styles and the 49-corner combined count across their recent five games each.
