Benfica vs Chelsea Prediction: 28.06.2025 FIFA Club World Cup Preview

The FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Round of 16 brings together two European heavyweights: Portugal’s Benfica and England’s Chelsea, set to clash at Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium. A contest steeped in continental pedigree and recent strong form, the game also showcases two managers with progressive football philosophies—Bruno Lage and Enzo Maresca—each looking to write their own chapter in global club football. With Chelsea marginally favored and both sides displaying recent tactical dexterity, the match provides abundant intrigue for fans and bettors alike.

A close look at Benfica’s attacking anchor, Ángel Di María, and Chelsea’s dynamic midfielder Enzo Fernández will be crucial—both have been instrumental in their teams’ most influential recent performances. Neither side can underestimate the impact of set pieces and defensive transitions, where Otamendi and Reece James could quietly tip the balance.

Hot stat: Benfica are yet to lose in their last three matches, including an impressive 1-0 win over Bayern Munich, demonstrating their capacity to topple elite opposition at crucial moments.

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Benfica vs Chelsea prediction

Chelsea’s status as bookmaker favorite (average win probability 45%) is warranted given their attacking consistency and superior squad depth. However, Benfica’s resilience, as evidenced against Bayern, cannot be discounted. The best value lies with a cautious approach: Chelsea Draw No Bet offers upside with safety, considering the risk of extra time or late drama.

Both sides come into this clash with a preference for structured buildup and wide attacking play. Chelsea’s 4-3-3 transitions smartly into the final third, promoting ball dominance (over 2,100 passes in their last 5 games) but at times exposing them to quick counters. Benfica, on the other hand, set up with a 4-2-3-1, building attacks through Di María’s creativity and leveraging disciplined defensive lines. Notably, Chelsea often accumulate more fouls (49 vs Benfica’s 26 in past 5 matches), risking yellow cards and set piece danger, which may be exploited by Otamendi and Di María. Benfica’s lower foul count reinforces their careful, less disruptive style.

Team Analysis

Benfica: Bruno Lage’s men enter this stage riding a wave of confidence following a narrow, hard-fought 1-0 victory over Bayern Munich—a result that underlines their tactical discipline and ability to execute a defined matchplan against stronger sides. Their earlier demolition of Auckland City (6-0) highlighted their offensive versatility, with Di María in scintillating form. The 2-2 draw against Boca Juniors, though, exposed some defensive vulnerabilities against fast forwards. Overall, Benfica have scored 9 goals and conceded only 2 in their last three matches, with key performers like Ángel Di María (3 goals in last 3 games) consistently making the difference.

Chelsea: Under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea have found attacking fluency, dispatching Esperance Tunis 3-0 and handling Real Betis 4-1 in their recent run. Their loss to Flamengo (1-3) was more an exception than a pattern, with the Blues bouncing back immediately. Chelsea excel in transition and press high, but their higher foul count hints at occasional recklessness in midfield—Moises Caicedo and Cole Palmer, both pacey and combative, are crucial in regaining possession. Chelsea’s spread of goals (10 in last 5 games) and an improving defensive core suggest well-roundedness, though vulnerabilities still appear against quick, technical sides.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Benfica vs Chelsea stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Chelsea the favourite

• Moneyline Benfica 3.54 | Chelsea 2.08
• Draw 3.44
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.90
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.82 | No 1.88

The odds reflect Chelsea’s recent edge in results, squad value and attacking output. Still, with Benfica’s high ceiling and defensive resilience under Lage, the draw is intriguing value. Goals are anticipated given both teams’ recent scoring trends, but Chelsea’s options off the bench and tactical flexibility provide the slightest edge.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Benfica possible starting eleven

Benfica are expected to continue with their trusted 4-2-3-1 formation, relying on Trubin’s shot-stopping and a defensive sweep led by Otamendi. Otamendi’s leadership and set piece threat, alongside Di María’s creative influence, provide stability and inspiration. Di María, in particular, remains the most dangerous weapon, frequently drifting inside to dictate play and create chances for Pavlidis.

Chelsea possible starting eleven

Chelsea’s probable 4-3-3 relies on the interplay between Enzo Fernández and Cole Palmer, who connect defense and attack with precision passing. Pedro Neto’s recent goal form and Nicolas Jackson’s intelligent movement add cutting edge to their forward line. The defensive quartet, led by Badiashile’s physicality and Reece James’s runs, must contain Benfica’s set-piece threat.

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My take on the Match

My main pick for this enthralling Round of 16 encounter is Chelsea Draw No Bet, acknowledging their assertive style, greater bench depth, and proven firepower. Benfica’s courage in premium matches, particularly against Bayern, means backing a Chelsea win outright carries some risk, but the London side’s pressing and transition quality should be enough to progress if they deal with Di María’s influence. Expect an attacking contest full of technical quality and tactical battles in midfield—a true football spectacle with a place in the quarter-finals at stake.

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