Oleksandr Usyk vs Rico Verhoeven is not your standard heavyweight title fight.
It is a strange one. A fascinating one. And, depending on who you ask, maybe a bit of a mismatch dressed up in heavyweight glitter under the lights of the Pyramids of Giza.
The bout is scheduled for Saturday, May 23, 2026, in Giza, Egypt, with Usyk defending heavyweight gold against Verhoeven, the Dutch kickboxing icon stepping deeper into professional boxing waters. Live lists the contest as a 12-round heavyweight fight, with Usyk at 24-0 and Verhoeven at 1-0 in boxing.
So, Who Are Experts Picking?
Almost everyone is picking Usyk — and the odds make that obvious.
Bookmakers currently price Oleksandr Usyk at just 1.05 to win, while Rico Verhoeven sits at 10.0, showing how one-sided experts believe this matchup is.
The market also expects a stoppage, with “fight not to go the distance” heavily favored at 1.14. In short, most analysts believe Usyk’s elite boxing skills, movement, and experience will eventually overwhelm Verhoeven.
That does not mean Verhoeven lacks credibility. He is one of kickboxing’s greatest heavyweight champions and brings size, toughness, and serious combat experience.
But boxing is boxing.
And against Usyk, that difference matters massively.
Why Experts Trust Usyk So Much
The main reason is painfully simple: Usyk has spent his entire elite career solving world-class boxers. Verhoeven has not.
Usyk is unbeaten, a former undisputed cruiserweight king, Olympic gold medalist, and a heavyweight champion who has already beaten elite names in the division. Verhoeven, for all his kickboxing greatness, enters this matchup with only one professional boxing fight on his record. That is not a gap. That is a canyon.
In kickboxing, Verhoeven can use kicks, knees, clinch rhythm, and a completely different distance game. In boxing, those weapons are gone. Suddenly, he has to deal with Usyk’s southpaw angles, feints, footwork, hand speed, and that maddening ability to make opponents miss by inches before making them pay.
That is why most expert picks lean toward Usyk by stoppage or a dominant decision. The question is not really whether Usyk is better at boxing. Everyone knows he is.
The question is whether Verhoeven’s size, toughness, and awkward crossover style can create one wild moment.
The Case For Usyk By KO/TKO
Usyk is not usually viewed as a one-punch destroyer at heavyweight, but this matchup is different.
Against elite boxers, he often breaks opponents down with pressure, movement, and late-round accuracy. Against a man still learning the deeper layers of boxing defense, those openings could appear much earlier.
Verhoeven’s guard, reactions, and foot positioning may be excellent for kickboxing. But against a southpaw like Usyk, every tiny mistake becomes a flashing red light. Step wrong, and Usyk is on the angle. Drop the right hand, and the left lands clean. Follow him in straight lines, and suddenly you are chasing smoke.
That is why the stoppage pick makes sense. Not because Verhoeven lacks heart. He absolutely does not.
Because Usyk may simply pile up too many clean shots.
What Must Usyk Do To Win?
First, he has to keep the fight boring early.
That sounds harsh, but it is smart boxing. Usyk does not need chaos. He does not need to prove he can trade with a bigger crossover heavyweight. He needs the jab, the feet, the angles, and the discipline that made him one of the best fighters on the planet.
Second, he must attack Verhoeven’s boxing habits. Feints will be massive here. Usyk can show the lead hand, draw reactions, step outside, and force Verhoeven to reset again and again. That is the stuff that drains a less experienced boxer mentally before the body even starts complaining.
Third, body work matters. Verhoeven is a big, strong heavyweight, but consistent shots downstairs can slow the feet and reduce his ability to rush forward. Once that happens, Usyk can start turning the screw.
And finally, Usyk cannot get lazy. Heavyweight boxing is a ridiculous sport. One punch can make experts look like mugs. Verhoeven is powerful, experienced in combat, and used to big nights. Give him a free swing, and things can get uncomfortable.
Is There Any Real Upset Argument?
There is one.
Verhoeven is huge, tough, confident, and not coming in with the normal rhythm of a career boxer. Sometimes, that awkwardness can be dangerous. He may not react like Usyk expects. He may clinch heavily, lean on him, or try to make the fight ugly.
That is the upset path: size, pressure, physicality, and one moment of madness.
But over 12 rounds? Under boxing rules? Against Usyk?
That is a brutal ask.
Final Expert Pick: Usyk To Win Comfortably
The sensible pick is Oleksandr Usyk to win, most likely by TKO in the middle or later rounds.
Verhoeven deserves respect. He is a combat sports monster and a genuine champion in his own world. But this is Usyk’s world. The ring, the rules, the rhythm, the angles — all of it favors the Ukrainian.
Unless Verhoeven lands something huge and turns Giza into complete madness, Usyk should control the distance, increase the tempo, and remind everyone why elite boxing experience is not something you can fake.
For more boxing predictions, fight breakdowns, and sharp heavyweight coverage, follow TipsGG as fight night gets closer.