Hammarby vs Rakow Prediction: 13.08.2026 UEFA Conference League

Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover

Add on Google

The first leg between these two sides ended 0-0 in Krakow, so everything is still wide open heading into the second leg at 3Arena in Stockholm. Hammarby carry home advantage and the bookmakers’ backing, but Rakow have shown across this campaign that they are perfectly capable of grinding out results when they need to. Henrik Rydström’s side have been the more consistent team over the past month, winning three of their last seven games while dropping just one, and their Swedish league form suggests a team that knows how to control games at home. Rakow under Dawid Kroczek have struggled for consistency, winning only two of nine matches in the past thirty days, and that form makes this second leg a real test of their European ambition.

One player to watch is Victor Lind, who has two goals and an assist across the last five matches for Hammarby and brings a constant threat from his forward position. On the Rakow side, Patryk Makuch stands out with three goals and an assist in five games, and his ability to create moments from midfield could be decisive if the match opens up.

Hot stat: Rakow have scored nine goals in their last five matches compared to Hammarby’s six, yet they have accumulated significantly fewer yellow cards (7 vs 11), suggesting they are both more productive and disciplined in open play.

Hammarby vs Rakow Prediction

The 0-0 first leg changes the dynamic here considerably. Rakow need a goal to avoid being eliminated on aggregate if the match stays level after 90 minutes, which means they cannot simply park the bus in Stockholm. That compulsion to push forward plays directly into Hammarby’s hands, who are a confident, well-drilled side at home and have the individual quality to punish on the counter. We think a Hammarby win is the most likely outcome, and the home win market at around 1.67-1.73 represents fair value given the context.

Hammarby’s style is worth examining. They have accumulated 26 fouls and 11 yellow cards across five recent matches, showing they are not shy about physical engagement, and their 40 corner kicks in that same period tells you they dominate territory and press teams into their own half. Their pass accuracy across 1,329 attempted passes sits at roughly 90%, which is excellent and signals a team that keeps the ball well and builds with purpose. Rakow, by contrast, have attempted far fewer passes (885) with a lower accuracy rate around 83%. They commit fewer fouls (19) and pick up fewer cards (7), suggesting a team that is more compact and reactive. That tactical gap could matter a lot in this tie, because if Hammarby dictate the tempo early, Rakow may find it difficult to establish any rhythm.

Team Analysis

Hammarby arrive at this second leg in solid shape. Their most recent result was a convincing 3-0 win over Hacken, a derby-level fixture in Swedish football that carries real emotional weight, and it showed the team firing on all cylinders. Before that came the 0-0 draw against Rakow in the first leg, which was a disciplined away performance from Rydström’s side. The 1-3 defeat to Anderlecht in the Europa/Conference League qualifying rounds earlier was the one obvious blemish, but they bounced back from it and the home record remains a strong foundation. Over the last seven matches they have won three, drawn three, and lost just one. That consistency, combined with their territorial dominance and set-piece volume, makes them hard to break down at home.

Rakow’s recent run tells a different story. Their last league match ended in a 1-2 defeat to Slask Wroclaw, a result that will have stung given the European context. They did manage a 4-0 win over Valletta in the earlier qualifying round and a 3-1 in the first leg of that tie, but domestic form has been shaky. Four defeats in nine matches over the past thirty days is not the form of a team building momentum. Makuch has been their most reliable source of goals, and Mahir Emreli’s two goals in five games add another dimension in attack, but the team as a whole has struggled to string results together. Their lower pass volume suggests they are often playing without the ball, and in Stockholm against a Hammarby side that loves to press and recycle possession quickly, that could become a real problem.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Hammarby vs Rakow stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Hammarby the Favourite

• Moneyline Hammarby 1.68 | Rakow 4.50
• Draw 3.52
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The moneyline odds reflect what the first leg result already implied: Hammarby are the stronger side and the favourites to advance. The spread between Hammarby at around 1.68 and Rakow at 4.50 is significant, and honestly it feels about right. The draw at 3.52 is interesting given that another 0-0 would send Hammarby through, but we do not think Rydström’s side will sit back and play for that result at home. Pinnacle’s line at 4.89 for Rakow is the most generous you will find and reflects genuine uncertainty about whether they have the firepower to win this tie. The home win looks like the cleanest bet on the board.

Possible Starting Lineups

Hammarby Possible Starting Eleven

This is Hammarby’s most logical 3-4-3 based on appearances and impact across the last five matches. Warner Hahn is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with consistent minutes. The back three of Skoglund, Winther, and Persson has been the most used defensive combination, though Winther’s three yellow cards in five games is worth watching in a high-stakes European tie. In midfield, Ibrahima Fofana Breze has been excellent at recycling possession and his pass accuracy is the best of any outfield player in the squad. Victor Lind and Paulos Abraham are the attacking focal points, both with two goals apiece, and Adjei adds energy and directness from a wider midfield role. This is a setup that can press high and still defend with numbers behind the ball.

Rakow Possible Starting Eleven

Rakow’s 4-2-3-1 shape translates here into something closer to a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 depending on how Kroczek sets up in the second leg. Trelowski is the first-choice keeper with three saves in the recent run. Racovitan and Napieraj are the most experienced defensive options by minutes played. In midfield, Makuch is the man to watch, three goals and an assist across five games makes him Rakow’s biggest threat from deep, and Jean Carlos with five free kicks won adds a set-piece dimension. Emreli’s two goals in five games give Rakow a genuine striker option, while Molnar provides a mobile alternative. The concern is that this midfield unit has shown a tendency to lose the ball (combined lost balls are high), which against a pressing Hammarby side could be costly.

🏅Tips.GG Premium Subscription Brings You Even Closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

TipsGG Match Prediction

Hammarby win this. That is our call. The home advantage is real, the form gap over the last thirty days is meaningful, and the fact that Rakow need to score to avoid elimination on aggregate means they will have to take risks they may not be comfortable with. Hammarby’s territorial dominance, pass accuracy, and corner volume all point to a team that will pin Rakow back and eventually create the chances needed. Rakow’s defensive record is not bad, but their midfield loses the ball too often and their pass accuracy drops off against better opposition.

We think the most likely scenario is a 1-0 or 2-0 Hammarby win, with the home side progressing to the play-off round. The “Hammarby to win to nil” angle is worth considering given Rakow’s attacking inconsistency and their recent record of just two wins in nine matches. Honestly, this tie was always going to be decided at 3Arena, and Rydström’s squad looks ready to deliver.

More Useful Links for Football Fans

• Gamble Responsibly
• Best Football Betting Websites
• How to Bet On Sports
• Sports Betting Glossary
• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current Football Tournaments
• Football Betting Guide by Tips.GG