Levi Rothermund
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Hajduk Split carry a 5-2 advantage from the first leg into this second leg at Stadion Poljud, making the tie effectively settled barring a historic collapse. Zalgiris need to score at least four goals without reply to overturn the deficit, and their first-leg display gave little reason to believe that is coming. The real question here is the margin, not the winner. Hajduk have been inconsistent domestically over the last 30 days, but they showed enough in Vilnius to suggest they can see this out comfortably at home.
Two players worth watching closely: midfielder Rokas Pukstas has scored four goals in his last six appearances for Hajduk and carries a genuine threat from midfield, while Zalgiris forward Stanislav Bilenkyi is their most dangerous attacker with three goals and three assists across his last four matches and could keep the scoreline interesting if given space.
Hot stat: Hajduk Split scored 15 goals across their last five matches, averaging three goals per game, which is a striking output for a side still in qualifying rounds.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 – Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Poljud, Split |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Hajduk Split vs Zalgiris Prediction
With a three-goal cushion already secured, Hajduk Split are the obvious selection to win this match. The home side are playing in front of their own fans at Poljud, and the tie is as good as done. We think the main market value here is not just the result but the total goals line. Hajduk scored five in the first leg, and Zalgiris have been leaking goals regularly, conceding ten across their last four competitive matches. The Over 2.5 goals market looks well-priced given both teams’ recent outputs.
Hajduk average 35 total shots across their last five matches and maintain a pass accuracy of around 87%, which reflects a technically organised side that controls games through possession. They commit a moderate 35 fouls and have collected 11 yellow cards across five games, suggesting they press assertively without being reckless. Zalgiris, by contrast, have accumulated 12 yellow cards and commit fouls at a higher rate relative to their passing data, which is largely unavailable but points to a team that defends reactively rather than proactively. That style tends to get exposed against a team like Hajduk, who move the ball quickly and create chances in volume. Hajduk’s 22 corner kicks in five games also indicates sustained pressure in the final third, and Zalgiris may struggle to cope with that intensity across 90 minutes in Split.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hajduk Split to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hajduk Split’s last 30 days show two wins, three losses, and a draw, which looks underwhelming on paper, but context matters. Their most recent match was a 2-2 draw against Istra 1961 in the Croatian league, a result that suggests Gonzalo García rotated or managed minutes ahead of this second leg. Before that, they beat Zalgiris 5-2 in the first leg. The loss to Varaždin came before that, and the 0-4 defeat to Pafos was against a side ranked far above them in the UEFA club coefficient table. Strip away the Pafos result and a likely rotation game against Istra, and Hajduk’s form looks far more solid. Michele Šego has scored five goals in six appearances and Adrion Pajaziti has contributed two goals and an assist, giving Hajduk genuine firepower across multiple positions.
Zalgiris come into this second leg off the back of the 2-5 first-leg loss, which was their worst recent result. Before that, they beat Dinamo Tbilisi 7-2 and Hegelmann Litauen 3-2, and they picked up wins in four of their last five matches before the Hajduk game. Their overall 30-day record of five wins from seven matches is genuinely impressive, but the quality of opposition matters. Dinamo Tbilisi and Lithuanian league sides are a different standard from a Croatian top-flight team with European ambitions. Andrius Skerla’s side press high and score freely at home, but they looked disorganised defensively against Hajduk’s pace and movement. Bilenkyi remains their best outlet, and if Zalgiris are to salvage any pride here, he needs to be central to it.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Hajduk Split | Zalgiris |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Hajduk Split vs Zalgiris stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Hajduk Split the Favourite
- Moneyline Hajduk Split 1.27 | Zalgiris 8.60
- Draw 5.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds for Hajduk Split sit between 1.22 and 1.30 across bookmakers, which reflects the near-certainty of the tie outcome but also the low ceiling on returns. Pinnacle’s 1.26 is probably the sharpest line available. Zalgiris at 8.60 with Vave and Stake is a long shot that carries no value given the aggregate deficit. The draw at 5.60 is equally unattractive. Honestly, the best approach here is to look beyond the result market entirely and focus on goals. Hajduk’s attacking output and Zalgiris’s defensive fragility make the Over 2.5 line the most logical angle, even without specific odds listed here.
Zalgiris. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Hajduk Split Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Dante Stipica
- DF: Dario Marešić, Alec Van Hoorenbeeck, Simun Hrgovic, Mathieu Acapandie
- MF: Rokas Pukstas, Adrion Pajaziti, Dalisson De Almeida Leite, Niko Sigur
- FW: Michele Šego, Marko Livaja
Hajduk look set to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape, with Dante Stipica as the first-choice goalkeeper based on appearances. The back four picks itself, with Marešić and Van Hoorenbeeck as the centre-back pairing and Acapandie at left back. Pukstas and Pajaziti in the double pivot give Hajduk energy and goals from midfield, both having contributed heavily in recent weeks. Šego leads the line with five goals in six games, and Livaja operates just behind him. Watch Pukstas specifically, he has been the most productive midfielder in this squad across the qualifying run.
Zalgiris Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Vincentas Sarkauskas
- DF: Danny Lupano, Ivan Lytvynenko, Yuri Kendysh, Martynas Šetkus
- MF: Paulius Golubickas, Marko Capan, Kajus Bicka, Ovidijus Verbickas
- FW: Stanislav Bilenkyi, Bryan Silva Teixeira
Zalgiris appear to favour a 4-2-3-1 structure as well. Sarkauskas gets the start in goal. Lupano and Kendysh have both been booked multiple times recently, and another yellow for either could mean suspension. Bilenkyi is the standout name in attack with three goals and three assists in four matches, and Silva Teixeira provides support up front. Capan has two goals from midfield and could be a secondary threat. This is a team that can score, as their 7-2 win over Dinamo Tbilisi showed, but they need Hajduk to drop their defensive concentration significantly for that to happen here.
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Hajduk Split. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Hajduk Split win this match. The aggregate lead is too large for Zalgiris to realistically overcome, and Hajduk at Poljud are a different proposition from a neutral venue. Their 15 goals in five matches, 43 total shots, and 22 corners tell the story of a team that dominates games physically and technically. Zalgiris can score, Bilenkyi and Capan have shown that, so we lean toward Both Teams to Score landing. We think Hajduk win 3-1 or 3-2, with the Over 2.5 goals market being the clearest value on the board. Zalgiris scoring in both legs is realistic, but they will not come close to the four-goal swing needed to change the tie’s outcome.
- Hajduk Split to Win
- Over 2.5 Goals
- Both Teams to Score: Yes
- Hajduk Split to Score in Both Halves
