The battle for a UEFA Europa League quarter-final spot kicks off on Thursday, 12 March. The 16 best teams in the competition will play two-legged ties to determine who continues their European campaign and who shifts focus to domestic competitions. Which matches deserve special attention, and what bets look promising? The TipsGG analysts team has prepared their traditional digest for you.
Bologna vs Roma
Bologna lost at home to Verona in the last round and once again raised doubts about their confidence, which they had barely carried through minimal wins over Brann, Pisa, and Udinese. Roma look like their strongest opponent yet, and the approach reflects that. However, what’s concerning is how weak the “rossoblù” appear in attack at Renato Dall’Ara, having lost five of their last seven home matches.
Roma also disappointed their fans last weekend with a surprisingly poor performance away at Genoa. Roma struggle on the road but show themselves in attack.
For example, in their last eight away games, Roma won only twice while suffering four defeats. Since this is a rivalry with an Italian team, it’s fair to bring in Serie A numbers. In those, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side looks quite decent in attack, unlike their opponents. They scored three against Juventus and Cremonese (3:0), twice against Napoli and Cagliari (2:0). Of course, no two games are the same, especially in such high-stakes matches. But the “giallorossi” have people and tools to rely on.
Bet on the match: Roma double chance (X2) and total under 3.5 (odds 1.66)
I assume Roma don’t lose the first leg, and we might even see a low-scoring draw, with everything to be decided in Rome.
Lille vs Aston Villa
At Pierre-Mauroy, Lille – who haven’t lost in four straight matches after a poor start to the year – will host Aston Villa, who have conversely slowed down compared to earlier in the year and are winless in their last four games.
Lille are gradually coming back to life after a disastrous run at the start of the year with five consecutive defeats. However, creating and converting goal chances still comes hard for the “mastiffs” – in 14 matches, the team scored a maximum of one goal (excluding extra time in the Crvena Zvezda game). Despite low scoring, results have improved lately, mainly thanks to more reliable defending.
Aston Villa, along with Lyon, were the best team of the league phase, collecting 21 points out of 24 possible. Birmingham’s head coach Unai Emery is a true specialist in European competitions – the Spanish manager has already won the Europa League four times. It’s no surprise that bookmakers see Aston Villa as one of the main favourites to win the second-most prestigious European club tournament.
At the same time, the Villans have a very important league match ahead against Manchester United, with both teams level on points in the table. That’s why it’s quite likely Unai Emery won’t risk key players and will partially rotate the squad for this away tie.
Bet on the match: Aston Villa double chance (X2) and total under 3.5 (odds 1.82)
Even under these conditions, the “lions” look solid enough to avoid defeat in France and then try to settle the qualification in the home leg.
Panathinaikos vs Real Betis
Panathinaikos are extremely hard to beat. In the last month and a half, they only slipped in the Greek Cup semi-final; their current unbeaten run stands at seven matches. In the Europa League overall this season, they have suffered only two defeats in 14 matches, and those bad games came back in October. In winter on the European stage, Panathinaikos strung together five consecutive draws – in the previous four, both teams consistently scored.
Betis, as usual, lack consistency; after one of their best stretches of the season, another dip has arrived. The club dropped points in three consecutive league matches, even though the opponents were mid-table sides and teams from the bottom half. Judging by the rotation in the last match, Pellegrini is prioritising the Europa League.
Bet on the match: Panathinaikos double chance (1X) (odds 1.76)
But winning in Athens won’t be easy: Betis have noticeably dropped off in away games, and their only European defeat this season came in Greece, away to PAOK.
Stuttgart vs Porto
Stuttgart confidently got past Celtic in the Europa League round of 32. A home defeat (0:1) didn’t affect the aggregate result, as the first leg ended in an away win for the “Swabians” (4:1). After the European ties, the “red-whites” played two more Bundesliga matches, collecting 4 points in total: a convincing win over Wolfsburg (4:0) and a painful draw with Mainz (2:2). For the “Cannstatter”, that dropped points mean they are clinging to the Champions League top four only on tiebreakers, with RB Leipzig breathing down their necks.
Porto lead the Portuguese league, four points ahead of Sporting, but lost to the Lisbon side in the first leg of the national cup semi-final (0:1). Now at Estádio do Dragão they will have to overturn that deficit. The “dragons” finished the Europa League league phase in 5th place, so they skipped the round of 32. They got a tough opponent: bookmakers currently rate the teams’ chances of progressing as 50/50.
Bet on the match: Stuttgart win by exactly 1 goal or draw (odds 1.9)
I think the hosts will control the game, trying to gain an advantage before the away leg. However, Porto are an extremely tough nut to crack this season, conceding a record-low number of goals, so don’t expect a goal fest.
Genk vs Freiburg
Genk, who ultimately beat Dinamo Zagreb in a dramatic two-legged tie, will host the team with the best defence of the league phase – Freiburg, who conceded only 4 goals.
Bookmakers rate the teams’ chances roughly even in the first leg, which looks quite logical given both sides’ styles.
In home league-phase matches, Genk won two by a minimal margin, drew once, and suffered one minimal defeat. Overall, the “smurfs” lack stability at home – wins often alternate with losses and draws.
Freiburg, in turn, won away only once, confidently beating crisis-hit Nice (3:1). The “Brazilians from Breisgau” also drew twice and lost minimally once. It’s worth noting that away matches have been tough for the German club all season. Across all competitions, they have only five away wins (excluding penalties in the cup game against Hertha), two of which came in the German Cup against lower-division teams. Meanwhile, they have nine defeats and five draws in the loss column.
Bet on the match: Freiburg double chance (X2) and total under 3.5 (odds 2.04)
Despite this, thanks to organised defending and generally more stable European performances, the visitors look slightly more convincing in this tie. A Freiburg win isn’t guaranteed, but avoiding defeat is well within the German club’s reach.
Ferencváros vs Braga
Ferencváros are in excellent form – the Budapest club have won five consecutive matches across all competitions. They are still second in the league, but that’s down to goal difference and fielding rotated sides in several matches due to European commitments. Ferencváros have minimal squad losses, and statistics are on their side – they remain unbeaten at home this Europa League season.
But Braga are strong too. In their last ten matches, Carlos Vicens’ men lost only to Gil Vicente in the league and drew deservedly with Sporting in the last round. The “archbishops” have absences – the starting right-back is suspended, and several players are injured.
Bet on the match: Ferencváros double chance (1X) and total under 3.5 (odds 2.03)
The team barely concedes in away matches – two goals in seven European games this season. In a clash of two sides on winning streaks, the most logical assumption is a low-scoring game.
Nottingham Forest vs Midtjylland
Crisis-hit Nottingham will host a combative Midtjylland side that is unbeaten in eight official matches in a row.
The “Tricky Trees” are fighting hard to avoid relegation in the Premier League, where they are only ahead of West Ham (in the drop zone) on goal difference. The Europa League is usually not the top priority for English clubs, especially those at risk of dropping to a lower division. However, last season under similar circumstances, Tottenham and Manchester United met in the final. For Nottingham, winning the Europa League remains the only chance to qualify for Europe next season.
Midtjylland, unlike their opponents, advanced directly to the round of 16 by finishing third in the league phase. In the Danish league, the team are performing quite steadily – second place and only four points off the leaders, leaving good chances to fight for the title in the championship group.
Interestingly, the opponents already met in the group stage. Back then, Midtjylland won a dramatic match (3:2). It’s unlikely such a high-scoring scenario will repeat, but a lot will depend on the lineup Nottingham’s manager fields given their tough league situation.
Regardless of the hosts’ lineup, the visitors can still put up a serious fight. Midtjylland regularly create danger near opponents’ goals, especially through active flank play. That’s why a scenario where both teams score looks quite probable.
Bet on the match: Both teams to score – Yes (odds 1.83)
Also worth noting is the Danish club’s corner statistics in Europa League away matches – 4, 6, 6, and 8 corners taken, indicating an active attacking style even on the road.
Celta Vigo vs Lyon
In the last Primera round, Real Madrid broke Celta’s hearts in the final minutes, though the Galicians deserved at least a draw. It’s also frustrating that direct rival Betis (for fifth place) also lost, so Vigo missed a chance to close the gap. In the Europa League round of 32, the Galicians got past PAOK not without problems but with two minimal wins.
Lyon’s incredible 13-match winning streak gave way to four games without a win (three defeats). In the French Cup quarter-final, the “weavers” mounted a comeback, scoring twice against Lens, but lost on penalties. The setbacks affected their Ligue 1 standing too: Les Gones are level on points with Marseille but behind on tiebreakers, currently missing direct Champions League qualification next season.
Bet on the match: Celta double chance (1X) and total under 3.5 (odds 1.75)
The hosts benefit not only from the opponent’s form but also from two extra days of rest, as Lyon played their Ligue 1 match later than Celta. I also don’t expect a high number of goals in this encounter.