Alex MacQuoid
Bodo Glimt welcome Fredrikstad to Aspmyra Stadion on Friday evening, and on paper this looks like the most lopsided fixture on the Eliteserien calendar this week. Glimt sit fourth in the table with 19 points from nine matches and a goal difference of +14, the best goals-per-game ratio among the genuine title contenders. Fredrikstad, sitting 14th with a -6 goal difference, have lost five of their nine league outings. What makes this one genuinely interesting is the sheer volume of goals Glimt have been producing at home, and whether Casper Röjkjaer’s side can avoid a repeat of the 5-0 hammering they received the last time these two met at Aspmyra.
Two names to watch: Sondre Auklend has been quietly pulling strings in Glimt’s midfield, combining a pass accuracy that borders on surgical with the kind of pressing work rate that opens spaces for the forwards. On the other side, Benjamin Thoresen Faraas led Fredrikstad in total shots in their last outing and is really the only consistent attacking threat Röjkjaer can rely on right now.
Hot stat: Bodo Glimt have scored 22 goals across their last five recorded matches, including a 7-5 thriller against Brann and a 5-0 demolition of Tromso. That is an average of 4.4 goals per game on the attacking end alone, a figure that puts almost every other team in Norway to shame.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Eliteserien 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:15 CEST |
Bodo Glimt vs Fredrikstad Prediction
The case for a Bodo Glimt win is almost overwhelming. They have won all three matches in the last 30 days without dropping a point, and their season win rate of 83% across 24 matches is the mark of a team operating at a different level to most of the league. Fredrikstad have won zero of their last four games, picking up two draws and two defeats. Kjetil Knutsen’s side scored four against both Kristiansand and Molde in their last two home performances, and the 3-4-3 formation they favour generates relentless pressure in wide areas that Fredrikstad’s defence has consistently struggled to handle.
We think the most value here sits on a Bodo Glimt win with over 2.5 total goals. The home side’s attack is simply too prolific, and Fredrikstad’s defensive record of 17 goals conceded in nine league games gives you very little reason to back a clean sheet at the other end. Glimt’s last five matches produced goals in every single game, and the visitors have now gone scoreless in two of their last three outings. The total goals market leans heavily over, and BTTS is genuinely uncertain given how quiet Fredrikstad have been in front of goal lately.
Fredrikstad commit fewer fouls per match on average (7 in their last game) and tend to sit deeper, which explains their higher pass volume (627 passes vs Glimt’s 469 in the latest round). That possession-heavy defensive shape often invites pressure rather than relieving it, and Glimt’s 3-4-3 is specifically designed to exploit teams that sit back and let the ball circulate. Glimt picked up zero yellow cards in their last match, suggesting a controlled, confident performance rather than a scrappy one, which is exactly the kind of atmosphere that produces big scores at Aspmyra.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Bodo Glimt to win by 3+ goals |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Bodo Glimt’s last three results read 2-0 vs KFUM Oslo, 4-0 vs Kristiansand, and 4-1 vs Molde. Before that run, they dismantled Tromso 5-0 and survived a wild 7-5 encounter with Brann. The most recent match, a composed 2-0 win over KFUM Oslo, showed a slightly more measured side to Glimt’s play. They managed 14 shots, kept nine fouls, and earned four corners. Sondre Auklend was central to everything in midfield, recording an assist and maintaining a pass accuracy that dominated the game’s tempo. Isak Dybvik Maatta worked tirelessly across 90 minutes, and Ole Didrik Blomberg created problems down the flank with two shots and two free kicks won. Honestly, the scoreline flattered KFUM Oslo a little. Glimt were the better team by a distance.
Fredrikstad’s most recent match was a 0-2 home defeat to Lillestrom, a result that continued a miserable run. Before that they lost 1-3 to Valerenga, drew 0-0 with Swedish side Elfsborg, and drew 1-1 with HamKam. The Lillestrom loss was particularly flat. Fredrikstad generated 14 shots but none of them counted, and three yellow cards in a single match (Simen Rafn, Daniel Eid, and Max Nilsson) tells you something about the frustration on the pitch. Martin Borsheim made two saves in goal, which means Lillestrom were not exactly under siege either. Benjamin Thoresen Faraas put up five total shots from his forward position, more than anyone else on the team, but the end product was absent. Their form across the last 15 results includes five losses and two draws from the most recent seven, which is a team visibly lacking confidence.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have met twice in Eliteserien 2025 and once in 2024, and the record is heavily in Glimt’s favour.
| Statistic | Bodo Glimt | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 2 |
🚨 Check out our dedicated Bodo Glimt vs Fredrikstad stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Bodo Glimt the Favourite
- Moneyline Bodo Glimt 1.15 | Fredrikstad 12.00
- Draw 8.50
The moneyline odds on Bodo Glimt clustering around 1.14-1.17 reflect a bookmaker market that sees this as close to a certainty as football gets. An 81% implied win probability from the average bookmaker prediction is steep, but given the form, the head-to-head record, and the home advantage at Aspmyra, it is hard to argue. Fredrikstad at 12.00 to 15.00 is the market’s way of saying “stranger things have happened, but we’re not backing it.” The draw at 8.50 is perhaps the most interesting number here. We think it is wildly overpriced in the sense that a draw is almost the least likely outcome given Glimt’s recent goal output. The real value play is building around the margin of victory rather than chasing inflated odds on upsets that have very little statistical foundation.
Possible Starting Lineups
Bodo Glimt Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nikita Haikin
- DF: Fredrik Sjovold, Isak Dybvik Maatta, Haitam Aleesami
- MF: Sondre Auklend, Hakon Evjen, Ulrik Saltnes, Sondre Fet
- FW: Ole Didrik Blomberg, Kasper Hogh, Ola Brynhildsen
Knutsen will almost certainly stick with the 3-4-3 that has been working so well. Nikita Haikin is the clear first choice in goal. The back three of Sjovold, Maatta, and Aleesami provides a mix of defensive solidity and ball-playing ability, with Aleesami’s 83 passes in the last match highlighting how involved he gets in build-up. Sondre Auklend is the engine of this team right now, and Hakon Evjen adds creativity from wider midfield positions. Up front, Ole Didrik Blomberg and Kasper Hogh have the pace and movement to cause real problems for a Fredrikstad defence that has been leaking goals all season. Ola Brynhildsen provides an additional goal threat from the third forward slot.
Fredrikstad Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Martin Borsheim
- DF: Fredrik Holme, Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen, Simen Rafn, Daniel Eid
- MF: Max Nilsson, Oskar Øhlenschlæger, Leonard Owusu, Salim Laghzaoui
- FW: Benjamin Thoresen Faraas, Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Röjkjaer has been using a 4-4-2 shape, and Martin Borsheim is the established goalkeeper after his recent appearances. Fredrik Holme’s 95 passes in the last match, at 88% accuracy, shows how much Fredrikstad rely on him to recycle possession from the back. Max Nilsson picked up a yellow card against Lillestrom but should retain his midfield place. The attacking options are limited. Benjamin Thoresen Faraas is the one player who consistently creates, and Henrik Langaas Skogvold will need to be more clinical than he was last time out. Fredrikstad may set up to frustrate and absorb pressure, but their defensive line has shown it cannot hold shape against top-end Eliteserien attacks for 90 minutes.
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Bodo Glimt. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Bodo Glimt are in the kind of form that makes opposition managers lose sleep. Three wins from three in the last 30 days, 83% win rate across 24 matches this season, and a head-to-head record against Fredrikstad that includes a 5-0 and a 1-0 win in their last two meetings. Fredrikstad have not won in four straight games, carry a negative goal difference, and travel to the most hostile home atmosphere in Norwegian football without any obvious way to stop Glimt’s forward line. We think Glimt win this comfortably, and the best play is a Glimt win combined with over 2.5 goals. BTTS no is also worth considering given how quiet Fredrikstad’s attack has been. Maybe Faraas pulls something out, but honestly the numbers do not support backing the visitors to score at Aspmyra against this defence.
