The TipsGG Data team delivers a fresh Betting Digest covering the first leg of the UEFA Conference League quarterfinals on April 9, 2026. This edition features four predictions across all scheduled matches, with the biggest odds reaching 2.58 on the Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina fixture. Let’s break down every matchup.
Rayo Vallecano vs AEK Athens
Estadio de Vallecas hosts the first leg as Rayo Vallecano welcome Greek Super League leaders AEK Athens in the Conference League quarterfinals.
The home ground is a genuine fortress for Los Relampagos: in the current La Liga season the team has suffered only two defeats in 15 home matches. It was here that the Madrid side held off Spanish giants Barcelona (1:1) and Real Madrid (0:0), and also produced a sensational thrashing of Atletico (3:0) in February. Away results under Inigo Perez look far weaker (just three wins across the entire league campaign), making a home victory in the first leg critically important.
AEK have a real chance to reclaim the championship title for the first time since the 2022/2023 season. The Athenians currently top the Greek Super League, sitting five points clear of nearest pursuers Olympiacos Piraeus and PAOK. In the last round the Double-Headed Eagles cemented their lead with a narrow 1:0 away win over Olympiacos. Across the current campaign the Athens club has shown impressive consistency, losing just three of 27 league matches, underlining their high ambitions on the European stage.
Despite the Greek side’s packed schedule, league officials accommodated the club by postponing a domestic fixture ahead of the second leg at home.
A tight, low-scoring affair is expected in Spain, with a narrow home win or a draw being the likeliest outcome. Special attention should be paid to the corners total: both teams actively use the flanks, which often leads to a high number of set pieces near the corner flag.
Prediction: Total corners over (10) – 2.13
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AZ Alkmaar
The 1:2 defeat in the second leg against Lech did not prove fatal for Shakhtar as the Miners still secured passage to the next round of the Conference League on aggregate. Their emotions after the final whistle were telling: unbridled joy and relief at the result despite a rather poor performance. In the Ukrainian Premier League, Shakhtar managed to fit in one fixture, a commanding 3:0 victory over Rukh. The Donetsk side currently sit second in the league, trailing LNZ only on tiebreakers and with a game in hand. A pivotal head-to-head clash with LNZ for the title falls right between the two legs against AZ.
The Cheese Farmers, on the other hand, have encountered no significant obstacles in the European knockout rounds so far. After a confident elimination of Armenian side Noah, the Alkmaar outfit met little resistance against Sparta Prague (6:1 on aggregate). AZ are also battling for the upper reaches of the Eredivisie: while the title is out of reach, a top-3 finish is not unrealistic. The team currently sits sixth, eight points behind the Champions League places. Recent league form has been mixed: first a 0:3 hammering by Groningen, then a confident 2:0 win over Fortuna Sittard, where Leeroy Echteld was able to rotate the squad during the second half.
In both squads the attack significantly outweighs the defence. Given the current form of these teams, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which fewer than three goals are scored in this match.
Prediction: Total over (2.5) – 1.81
Mainz vs Strasbourg
The Mewa Arena stages a Conference League quarterfinal between two sides in outstanding form. Both Mainz and Strasbourg enter the contest on lengthy unbeaten runs across all competitions.
Since the arrival of Urs Fischer, results for the Carnival Club have surged upward. A former relegation battler in the Bundesliga has transformed into a solid mid-table outfit, currently occupying ninth place with a realistic shot at seventh, which would open the door to European football next season. A 2:1 win over Hoffenheim in the latest round extended Mainz’s unbeaten streak to eight matches. A squad depth issue could hamper their next outing, though, with the availability of several key players in doubt due to injuries.
Strasbourg boast an even more impressive run of stability, going ten consecutive matches unbeaten. In the French top flight the Alsatians are faring well, actively competing for the European places after a recent victory over Nice. The Ligue 1 table is so tight with six rounds remaining that, under ideal circumstances, the visitors could even target a top-four finish. The most painful blow for the Blue and Whites has been the loss of top scorer Joaquin Panichelli, who ruptured his cruciate ligament and is out for the rest of the season.
Given the pragmatic approach of both coaches and the significance of the first playoff leg, an overly spectacular game should not be expected. The likeliest outcome is a gritty battle with a slim home advantage or a draw.
Prediction: Mainz to win by 1 goal or draw – 1.86
Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina
Crystal Palace have deliberately played cautious football in the opening legs of the playoff rounds, prioritizing defensive solidity, avoiding unnecessary risks and leaving the job to be finished in the return fixture. This tactic has already worked twice, and Glasner is unlikely to abandon his principles in the home match against Fiorentina.
La Viola have built momentum heading into the decisive phase of the season: an unbeaten run and assured away performances make Fiorentina a dangerous opponent even on the road, although personnel losses on the right flank could become a problem.
This match is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair. Both Crystal Palace and Fiorentina will aim to minimize risks and, in all likelihood, postpone the decisive moment to the second leg in Italy.
Prediction: Fiorentina double chance and total goals under 3.5 – 2.58
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