Alex MacQuoid
Hafnarfjordur host Breidablik at Kaplakriki on 20 July in a Besta deild karla fixture that looks far more lopsided than a local derby probably should. The hosts sit dead last in the table with just six points from eleven games, while Breidablik arrive fourth with a genuine push for the top spots. What makes this interesting, though, is that the last time these two met in the league this season it finished 3-3, so Hafnarfjordur are at least capable of producing something unexpected at home. Joey Gudjónsson’s side beat Valur 2-0 in their last outing, which snapped a run of poor results and might give them a sliver of confidence. Breidablik’s Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson has been quietly influential in midfield, contributing a goal and consistent passing volume across recent games, and he will be the man to watch for the visitors. For Hafnarfjordur, gils gislason has two goals from limited minutes and could be a threat if given space in behind.
Hot stat: Breidablik beat Vikingur Reykjavik 3-0 in their most recent away fixture, a result that stands out given Vikingur are currently third in the table and had lost just one of their ten games before that match.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Besta deild karla 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Kaplakriki, Hafnarfjordur |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:15 CEST |
Hafnarfjordur vs Breidablik prediction
Breidablik are the clear pick here. They have won all three of their matches in the last 30 days, carry a 55% win rate across the season, and have not lost in their last four outings. Hafnarfjordur managed only one win in nineteen matches this year, and even that recent 2-0 result against Valur came against a side that has lost eight of thirteen league games. The gap in quality is real, and Breidablik have shown they can put three goals past top-half opposition without much trouble.
Breidablik commit significantly more fouls, averaging 29 total fouls across their last five games compared to Hafnarfjordur’s 16. That physical approach, combined with their 4-2-3-1 shape, suggests they press aggressively and accept the card risk. They have earned three yellow cards over that stretch to Hafnarfjordur’s two, so neither side is particularly dirty, but Breidablik’s higher foul count could hand Hafnarfjordur some set-piece opportunities. On possession, the difference is striking: Breidablik completed 779 passes against Hafnarfjordur’s 541, with a noticeably higher pass accuracy. Hafnarfjordur actually generated more total shots (36 vs 18), which tells you they are direct and willing to shoot from distance, but quality chances are another matter. We think Breidablik will control the ball, limit Hafnarfjordur’s meaningful attacking moments, and find the net at least twice.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Breidablik to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hafnarfjordur’s season has been a grind. They sit twelfth in a twelve-team table with six points, having won just three of nineteen matches all year. Their recent form shows a long sequence of defeats and draws, with the 2-0 win over Valur and a 2-2 draw with Stjarnan being the only positive results across their last five games. Before those two, they were beaten 0-1 by Akranes and hammered 0-5 by Vikingur Reykjavik, which remains the sharpest indicator of how they cope against quality opposition. tomas robertsson has been busy in the forward areas, accumulating 103 passes and six shots from five appearances, but his conversion rate is zero. The goals have come from gils gislason (two) and Adolf Daði Birgisson (one), both of whom operate in short bursts rather than full games. Dadi Freyr Arnarsson started in goal for some fixtures before Jokull Andresson took the shirt, and Andresson’s nine saves over two games tell you he has been kept busy. Honestly, the squad looks stretched, and the 4-2-3-1 formation has not been producing results consistently.
Breidablik have been the most in-form side in this section of the data. Three wins from three in the last 30 days, and across the last five matches they beat Keflavik 2-1, Akranes 2-1, Vikingur 3-0, and Aegir 3-0 before a narrow 3-4 loss to league leaders Fram. That Fram defeat is the only blemish, and even then Breidablik scored three goals against the top side in the country. Ólafur Ingi Skúlason’s team are compact in their 4-2-3-1, with Ásgeir Helgi Orrason and Arnor Gauti Jonsson providing defensive cover and both averaging very high pass completion rates from the back. Ivar Orn Arnason leads the squad in passing volume with 150 passes and 128 completed. Anton Ari Einarsson in goal has made seven saves from two matches, suggesting the defence is not impenetrable, but the team’s ability to score freely has papered over those moments. Jónatan Gudni Arnarsson and Kristinn Jónsson have each contributed a goal from limited minutes, giving Ólafur Ingi options off the bench as well.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two clubs have met regularly in recent seasons, and the results have been more unpredictable than the current standings suggest.
| Statistic | Hafnarfjordur | Breidablik |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0, 3, 1, 5, 2, 0, 1 | 0, 3, 1, 4, 0, 1, 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Hafnarfjordur vs Breidablik stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Breidablik the favourite
- Moneyline Hafnarfjordur 2.87 | Breidablik 2.07
- Draw 4.22
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
Breidablik at around 2.07 with Pinnacle represents fair value given the form gap. The bookmakers have them as 45% favourites on average, and we think that is probably conservative. Hafnarfjordur at 2.87 is the kind of price that looks tempting but is backed mostly by home advantage and the memory of that 3-3 draw earlier in the season. The draw at 4.22 is the longest shot here, and given how attacking both sides have been in their head-to-head history, a stalemate seems unlikely. We would not chase the Hafnarfjordur moneyline at this stage of their season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hafnarfjordur possible starting eleven
- GK: Jokull Andresson
- DF: Gretar Gunnarsson, Arngrímur Bjartur Gudmundsson, Ísak Óli Ólafsson, aron jonsson
- MF: Róbert Hugi Sævarsson, ulfur bjornsson, tomas robertsson
- FW: kari halldorsson, gils gislason, Adolf Daði Birgisson
Jokull Andresson starts in goal after logging 180 minutes across the last two matches. The back four is built around Gretar Gunnarsson and Arngrímur Bjartur Gudmundsson, who have been the most reliable defensive presences in terms of passing and positioning. tomas robertsson sits just ahead of the midfield pivot, doing a lot of the ball-carrying work, and kari halldorsson operates as a creative outlet from the right flank with two assists in two games. gils gislason is the one to watch up front — two goals from 34 minutes of action is an exceptional rate, and if Hafnarfjordur are to cause an upset, he is the most likely source. The 4-2-3-1 shape should give them some defensive structure, but without the ball they will be under pressure for long stretches.
Breidablik possible starting eleven
- GK: Anton Ari Einarsson
- DF: Viktor Orn Margeirsson, Ásgeir Helgi Orrason, Arnor Gauti Jonsson, Ivar Orn Arnason
- MF: Viktor Karl Einarsson, Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson, David Ingvarsson
- FW: Dagur Orn Fjeldsted, Jónatan Gudni Arnarsson, Arnar Bjarki Gunnleifsson
Anton Ari Einarsson is the first-choice goalkeeper with consistent minutes and seven saves from two recent appearances. The back four of Margeirsson, Orrason, Jonsson, and Arnason has been stable, with Arnason particularly active in distribution — his 150 passes and 128 completions from two games is the highest in the squad. Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson is the midfielder to watch; he has a goal, strong passing numbers, and covers ground effectively in a 4-2-3-1 that gives him freedom to get forward. Dagur Orn Fjeldsted provides pace and two assists from the forward line, and Jónatan Gudni Arnarsson gives them a goal threat from the second striker role. Gabriel Hallsson provides depth in defence and has been available across recent matches as well. Breidablik look well-organised and have depth across every line.
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Breidablik. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Breidablik are the better team right now, and the stats back that up at almost every level. Their pass accuracy is higher, their recent win rate is perfect over the last 30 days, and they have beaten sides far better than twelfth-placed Hafnarfjordur in the last few weeks. The home side did win their last match, but that win came against a Valur team deep in their own troubles, and the 0-5 loss to Vikingur before that is the more honest measure of how Hafnarfjordur handle pressure.
We think Breidablik win this one without too much drama. Maybe Hafnarfjordur nick something from a set piece — gils gislason’s pace could cause a moment — but sustaining any kind of defensive effort against a side this organised for 90 minutes is a tall order. The head-to-head history shows these matches can produce goals, so over 2.5 looks like a reasonable companion to the Breidablik win. Our main call is Breidablik to win to nil, which at these odds offers real value given Hafnarfjordur’s attacking output has been limited and their defensive record is the worst in the league.
