Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportivo Pasto Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Primera A Apertura - 17.04.2026

The Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria in Monteria will set the stage for a crucial Apertura clash in Colombia’s Primera A on April 17, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 23:00 CEST. In the heart of the tournament’s spring phase, struggling hosts Jaguares de Cordoba will look to overturn their fortunes under Jeff Strasser, while title-chasing Deportivo Pasto, led by Jonathan Risueño, hope to consolidate second place and keep pressure on the leaders.

Key players to watch include Yairo Moreno, Jaguares de Cordoba’s dynamic midfielder whose recent creative output has been a rare bright spot, and Andrey Estupiñán of Deportivo Pasto, currently their most threatening attacking outlet with three goals in his last five matches.

Notably, Deportivo Pasto have suffered just two defeats in their last ten league matches, underlining their consistency as they continue a strong surge toward the league summit.

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Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportivo Pasto predictions

Me best bet: Deportivo Pasto to win (Away Victory). This prediction is anchored on recent form and overall consistency. Deportivo Pasto boast a robust win rate of 59% this season, compared to Jaguares’ disappointing 25%. Pasto’s recent record of three wins in their last six and far superior ranking shows their tactical approach and resilience, particularly in managing tight situations and defending leads. They have also conceded fewer goals (17 in 16), highlighting a defensive solidity that Jaguares have often lacked.

From a tactical perspective, both teams tend to favor a 4-2-3-1 setup, but their execution differs sharply. Jaguares de Cordoba are aggressive in transition but frequently undermined by disciplinary lapses — 10 yellow cards and a red in their last five matches, coupled with 45 fouls, point to a lack of composure. Pasto are more measured, with 12 yellows but only 61 fouls, indicating effective pressing without overcommitting. Jaguares’ average possession remains middling, compounded by a lower pass accuracy (most recently at 82%), affecting their build-up under opposition pressure. Pasto’s passing, meanwhile, is marked by greater efficiency and structure, enhancing their capacity to dictate the tempo.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportivo Pasto Most recent H2Hs

Historically, contests between these sides have been tight and pragmatic, with the last head-to-head (Apertura 2024) ending in a goalless draw. Both teams struggled to break defensive lines, and while Jaguares registered more corners and shots on goal, Pasto’s organization and adaptability allowed them to control key phases. The pattern across H2Hs is of narrow margins and low-scoring affairs, reinforcing the appeal of an under 2.5 goals bet.

🚨Read our full Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportivo Pasto stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Jaguares de Cordoba have scored just 14 goals in 16 league matches—the second lowest tally in the division.
• Deportivo Pasto have lost only once in their past six away matches.
• Pasto’s pass accuracy is consistently above 80 percent, illustrating their disciplined build-up play.
• Andrey Estupiñán has contributed to 50 percent of Pasto’s goals in the last five games.
• Across their last five meetings in Monteria, neither team has managed to win by more than a single goal margin.

Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportivo Pasto score prediction: 0-1

Expect a disciplined, cautious affair with limited open play opportunities. Deportivo Pasto’s recent form and defensive solidity gives them the edge. Andrey Estupiñán’s ability to convert half-chances, coupled with the reliable presence of Fainer Torijano and Nicolas Gil in the backline, could be decisive. Jaguares may create isolated threats through Yairo Moreno, but Pasto’s organization away from home is expected to stifle the hosts.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Deportivo Pasto the favourite

Bookmakers agree with our anticipated outcome, installing Deportivo Pasto as the away favourites. These odds reflect both recent form and Pasto’s superior league standing. The low odds on under 2.5 goals suggest widespread expectation of a tactical, low-scoring contest. Bettors gravitating toward “No” for both teams to score are likely responding to Jaguares’ recurring offensive struggles, especially against top-six opposition.

Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportivo Pasto Over/Under Analysis

• Jaguares’ last five games: four out of five have gone under 2.5 goals.
• Deportivo Pasto’s last five matches: three have featured fewer than three goals.
• Neither side averages above 1.4 goals per game in league play this year.
• High card counts (22 yellow cards combined in their last five matches) point towards a stop-start rhythm that often keeps scoring low.

Jaguares de Cordoba Preview

Jaguares de Cordoba remain mired in the lower reaches of the Apertura standings. Their most recent outing was a 1-2 defeat at the hands of Atletico Nacional—a match that encapsulated both their fighting spirit and defensive vulnerabilities. Despite showing improved attacking intent and registering more attempts (12 shots), lapses in marking, especially against set pieces, proved costly. The lone victory in the past seven matches came against Millonarios, where a stout low block and quick transitions, marshaled by Yairo Moreno and Cristian Alvarez, allowed them to hang on for a crucial 1-0 result. However, sustained inconsistency and discipline issues have persistently undermined coach Jeff Strasser’s efforts to instill control and resilience in the squad.

Jaguares de Cordoba possible starting eleven

Deportivo Pasto Preview

Deportivo Pasto’s form remains among the most consistent in the league. They come off a narrow but significant 1-0 win over Deportes Tolima, a match where their composure in midfield and ability to manage transitions were evident. Andrey Estupiñán continues to lead from the front, with strong support from Diego Gabriel Chavez and Matías Pisano, who anchor the counter-attacking threat. At the back, Fainer Torijano and Edwin Velasco have formed a reliable partnership. Discipline has improved in recent weeks, with only two reds in five games; however, yellow card accumulation could be a minor concern. Jonathan Risueño’s side have demonstrated adaptability, modifying their tempo and tactical shape depending on opponent vulnerabilities, a testament to the bench’s depth and the coach’s tactical nous.

Deportivo Pasto possible starting eleven

The Verdict

As a team of dedicated analysts at Tips.GG, we confidently tip Deportivo Pasto as likely winners. Our primary pick is a narrow away win, backed by both current form and tactical superiority. Pasto’s flexible structure and key midfield contributions—especially from Estupiñán and Chavez—give them the edge over a Jaguares side that have struggled for fluidity and composure throughout the season.

Our AI-driven forecast gives Deportivo Pasto a 38% probability to claim victory, with a draw and Jaguares win equally probable at 31%. Given the data and broader context, Pasto’s upward trend appears simply too strong for Jaguares to disrupt.

How to watch Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportivo Pasto

When? April 17, 2026 | Kick-off: 23:00 CEST
Where? Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, Monteria
How to Watch: Official broadcasters of the Colombian Primera A, local sports networks, and available via select international streaming platforms.
Favorite: Deportivo Pasto

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