Sofia Quijada
Derby County and Valencia CF meet in a July pre-season friendly on 28 July 2026, with both clubs arriving in contrasting form. The standout subplot here is Valencia’s troubled pre-season: despite a strong win over Eldense, they have already lost to both Castellon, a side ranked far below them, and Petro Atletico, which raises genuine questions about Carlos Corberán’s squad cohesion heading into the new campaign. Derby, managed by John Eustace, are building momentum after a win over Alfreton but carry the memory of a 1-3 defeat to Freiburg in their most recent outing. Both sides have enough quality to produce an open match, though neither enters it at full sharpness.
Two players worth watching are whoever Eustace deploys in Derby’s attacking midfield, given the Rams’ tendency to build through the centre, and Valencia’s forwards, who showed real teeth in the 3-0 win over Eldense and the earlier 4-3 comeback against Real Sociedad. That Real Sociedad result is the most telling indicator of Valencia’s attacking intent this pre-season, suggesting Corberán’s side can score freely even when defensive organisation is uncertain.
Hot stat: Valencia scored seven goals across their two most recent competitive friendly wins, netting four against Real Sociedad and three against Eldense, signalling high attacking output even if defensive solidity remains a work in progress.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 14:00 CEST |
Derby vs Valencia Prediction
Valencia are the higher-ranked side globally and carry more top-level experience, but their pre-season form is inconsistent. Losing to Castellon and Petro Atletico within days of each other points to a squad still finding its feet. Derby, on the other hand, have shown resilience in their domestic pre-season work and will be motivated to test themselves against La Liga opposition.
We predict this match to be tight and goal-heavy. Valencia’s attacking patterns suggest they will create chances, but their defensive vulnerability, evidenced by conceding two to Castellon and one to Petro Atletico, means Derby will have opportunities. Eustace typically sets Derby up in a compact mid-block that transitions quickly, which could exploit Valencia’s high defensive line.
With no detailed disciplinary or passing data available for either side’s latest five matches, broader seasonal patterns apply. Pre-season friendlies at this stage often see higher foul counts as fitness levels vary and pressing intensity is tested. Both teams are likely to be physical in the middle of the park, and corner kicks from set-piece-focused sides like Derby could be a factor late in each half.
- We predict a Valencia win, perhaps by a single goal, as their squad depth edges Derby’s.
- Over 2.5 goals looks strong given both teams’ attacking output and defensive inconsistency this pre-season.
- Both teams to score is a real possibility given Valencia’s defensive frailties and Derby’s counter-attacking threat.
- Corners: Valencia’s wide play suggests they will generate more corners, making Over 8.5 corners a reasonable punt.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Valencia to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Derby’s pre-season has been a mixed bag. They opened with a 2-0 win over Alfreton, a comfortable result against lower-league opposition, before facing a stern test against Freiburg and losing 1-3. That defeat is the most recent data point and suggests Eustace’s side still has work to do against quality pressing teams. Earlier in the pre-season window, Derby showed character with a 3-2 win over QPR, though they also lost to both Sheffield United and Norwich, which points to inconsistency against Championship-level rivals. Their overall 2026 record of 13 wins from 25 games at a 52% winrate is solid, and the last 30 days show a win and a loss from two outings.
Valencia’s pre-season story is one of peaks and troughs. Their most eye-catching result was a 4-3 win over Real Sociedad, followed by a 3-1 win over Barcelona, two results that demonstrated real attacking firepower under Corberán. The 3-0 win over Eldense continued that trend. To be honest, those three results would paint Valencia as heavy favourites here. The problem is that sandwiched around those wins are defeats to Castellon (1-2) and Petro Atletico (0-1), the latter a particularly alarming result against a side ranked far outside Europe’s top tiers. Valencia’s 2026 winrate of 46% from 26 matches, and only one win from three outings in the last 30 days, suggests a squad that is not yet firing consistently.
🚨Check out our dedicated Derby vs Valencia stats page for more info.
Possible Starting Lineups
Derby possible starting eleven
- GK: Joe Wildsmith
- DF: Corey Wassall, Curtis Davies, Ebou Adams, Haydon Roberts
- MF: Conor Hourihane, Max Bird, Callum Elder
- FW: Tom Barkhuizen, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, David McGoldrick
John Eustace typically favours a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 shape, prioritising defensive organisation and quick transitions. Conor Hourihane provides set-piece quality and range of passing from deep, while Nathaniel Mendez-Laing’s pace on the right can trouble any full-back in pre-season. Curtis Davies brings leadership at the back. This is a pragmatic Derby side that will look to be hard to break down before hitting on the counter.
Valencia possible starting eleven
- GK: Giorgi Mamardashvili
- DF: Thierry Correia, Cenk Ozkacar, Cristhian Mosquera, Jose Gaya
- MF: Pepelu, Javi Guerra, Andre Almeida
- FW: Diego Lopez, Hugo Duro, Dani Gomez
Carlos Corberán has shown a preference for a 4-3-3 with high pressing and quick vertical transitions. Giorgi Mamardashvili is one of Europe’s most highly-rated young goalkeepers and will be key to Valencia’s defensive stability. Pepelu anchors the midfield with energy and ball recovery, while Hugo Duro leads the line with physicality. The pre-season results against Real Sociedad and Barcelona suggest Corberán is already drilling his preferred high-tempo style, making this Valencia side dangerous going forward even if they remain defensively fragile.
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Valencia. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Derby arrive here with a respectable pre-season record and a clear tactical identity under Eustace, but they face a Valencia side that, on their best days this summer, has beaten Barcelona and Real Sociedad. The gap in squad quality is real, and while Derby’s defensive discipline could keep this close for long periods, Valencia’s attacking depth should eventually tell. We predict Valencia to win by a narrow margin, with goals at both ends. The Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals markets offer the best value given what we have seen from both squads this pre-season. Valencia’s defensive record against lower-ranked sides has been poor enough to give Derby genuine hope of getting on the scoresheet, making a 2-1 or 3-1 Valencia win the most likely scoreline.
