Arjun Menon
Two teams at the very bottom, both desperate, neither finding much joy for months. Burnley and Wolves, 19th and 20th, lock horns at Turf Moor as the Premier League regular season limps to its finish. For both, this is the final shot at some dignity. Not a single win between them in the last five games each, fans arriving more out of habit than hope. Still, matches like this have a weird electricity, something primal about fighting to avoid being last. Look out for Burnley’s Jaidon Anthony, who has actually found the net recently, and Wolves’ Mateus Mane, their lone spark in attack in an otherwise toothless frontline.
Burnley’s streak of conceding at least one goal in each of their last 10 matches stands out. Defensive structure barely holds. Wolves, on the other hand, have scored just twice in their last five, but are at least drawing some games and taking more shots nearly 50 in five matches, with Adam Armstrong and Mateus Mane pulling the trigger whenever they get a half-chance. The “hot stat”? Wolves’ total shot count: 47 in their last five, dwarfing Burnley’s 29. Neither side has shown killer instinct, but one’s at least trying.
| 🏆 Tournament: | English Premier League 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Turf Moor, Burnley |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:00 CEST |
Burnley vs Wolves prediction
TipsGG punters like value in the draw market for this clash. Neither side can buy a win, and both look spent going forward. Burnley have the worst home record in the league, but Wolves are the only side below them, and both are riding long winless runs. If anything separates them, it’s Wolves’ shot volume, but not their finishing. The draw is far from romantic, but it’s where the numbers push us.
Expect a scrappy, physical game. Burnley rack up an average of 9.2 fouls per match in the last five, Wolves slightly higher at 10. Wolves pick up yellow cards at nearly every game, 6 in 5 matches, while Burnley have 7 in the same span. Both sides play with two holding midfielders in a 4-2-3-1 setup, prioritizing bodies behind the ball but rarely transitioning smoothly. Pass accuracy is low (Burnley at 79.7%, Wolves at 76.7%), so the match will likely feature turnovers and cheap giveaways. Corners might come in bunches as attacks sputter out wide. Discipline could get lost if frustration boils over, especially with so much at stake.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Under 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Burnley’s last five matches show a team leaking goals, struggling for rhythm or ideas. Last time out, they fell 0-1 to Arsenal tight scoreline, but Arsenal barely got out of second gear. Burnley had few genuine chances, with only 3 shots on goal and 1 yellow card. Their previous draw against Aston Villa (2-2) was a rare moment of resilience, but sandwiched between heavy defeats, it looks more like an outlier than a sign of change. Mike Jackson keeps rolling out the same formation, but the backline keeps buckling. Players like Zian Flemming and Loum Tchaouna try to create, but their impact is often lost in the chaos.
Wolves don’t inspire more confidence. Last match, a limp 1-1 against Fulham. They took 9 shots, but only 3 on target. Wolves’ midfield, led by André and João Gomes, hustle but rarely build dangerous attacks. The 0-3 loss to Brighton before that was a defensive horror show, and the 1-1 draw with Sunderland was just flat. The formation is rigid, the press inconsistent, and the attack ends up being Mateus Mane or Adam Armstrong running into walls. At least they’re not losing every game, but no killer edge, just more grind.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Burnley | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 29 | 47 |
| Corner kicks | 5 | 15 |
| Total fouls | 46 | 50 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 80 | 78 |
| Interceptions | 24 | 37 |
| Offsides | 2 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Burnley vs Wolves stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Burnley the favourite
- Moneyline Burnley 2.41 | Wolves 2.94
- Draw 3.73
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.71
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.80
Bookmakers lean slightly toward Burnley, maybe because they’re at home, but not with conviction. Wolves’ slightly better shot output doesn’t persuade the markets much neither side is given a clear edge. Odds on the draw are tempting, and the under 2.5 goals is priced as expected in a game between two of the league’s worst attacks. Both teams to score? Not likely, given their conversion rates and overall chaos in attack. These odds tell the story: no one trusts either side, not even the bookies.
Possible Starting Lineups
Burnley possible starting eleven
- GK: Max Weiß
- DF: Maxime Esteve, Lucas Pires Silva, Bashir Humphreys, Kyle Walker
- MF: Hannibal Mejbri, Lesley Ugochukwu, Florentino Luís
- FW: Jaidon Anthony, Loum Tchaouna, Zian Flemming
This eleven matches the most consistent choices from Mike Jackson lately. Max Weiß likely starts in goal; Esteve, Silva, Humphreys, and Walker make up a defense that hasn’t clicked, but is at least familiar. Mejbri brings energy in midfield, Ugochukwu and Luís try to keep things ticking. Up top, Anthony and Tchaouna have been the only sources of hope, with Flemming as the focal point. Formation almost certain to stay 4-2-3-1, but don’t expect much fluidity if Burnley win, it’s through a scrappy goal and a lot of blocks.
Wolves possible starting eleven
- GK: Dan Bentley
- DF: Toti Gomes, Santiago Bueno, Yerson Mosquera, Pedro Lima
- MF: João Gomes, André, Rodrigo Gomes
- FW: Adam Armstrong, Mateus Mane, Hwang Hee-Chan
Rob Edwards is running out of ideas, so the spine of the team stays unchanged. Bentley in goal, Toti Gomes and Bueno as the center-backs, Mosquera and Lima at fullback. André and João Gomes provide running but not much invention, Rodrigo Gomes floats ahead of them. Armstrong and Mane will try to make runs, while Hwang Hee-Chan offers directness. Like Burnley, Wolves stick to 4-2-3-1, but maybe they’ll push Armstrong wider to exploit space. Watch Mane if Wolves score, he’s involved.
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Wolves. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
The numbers stare back: Burnley can’t defend, Wolves can’t finish. We think this ends as a low-scoring draw, maybe 0-0, maybe 1-1 if someone gets lucky from a set piece. Neither side has found a winning formula. Burnley’s fans want a reaction, Wolves want dignity, but both teams’ stats scream caution. If you have to pick, take the under, play the draw, and don’t get greedy this game isn’t made for highlight reels.
