Rafael Nogueira
Criciuma sit top of the Série B table with 32 points from 16 games, and they carry their best form of the season into this home fixture. Five wins from five in the last 30 days, including back-to-back clean sheets against Vila Nova and Novorizontino, tells the story of a side that has found both defensive solidity and clinical edge under Eduardo Baptista. Nautico arrive at Estadio Heriberto Hülse sitting ninth, six wins from 14 league outings, and having already lost to Criciuma 1-0 in the only head-to-head meeting this campaign.
Defender Marcelo Hermes has been a surprise attacking weapon for the hosts, scoring three goals from the backline across the last five matches, while Nautico’s Jean Carlos brings genuine creativity in midfield with one goal and two assists in just two appearances, making him the visitor most likely to cause problems.
Hot stat: Criciuma have kept clean sheets in four of their last five league matches and conceded just once across that run, scoring seven goals in the process.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Criciuma |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Criciuma vs Nautico Prediction
Criciuma’s home record and current momentum make them the clear pick here. They have won five consecutive matches, each by a single goal, showing a team that controls games without overextending. Nautico have lost two of their last four matches and drew once, managing just three goals across five games. The gap in quality between these two sides at this stage of the season is significant, and a Criciuma win to nil carries real value given how rarely Baptista’s defense has been breached lately.
In terms of style, Criciuma average 13 yellow cards across their last five matches compared to Nautico’s nine, suggesting the hosts press aggressively and commit to duels. Their pass accuracy of 1,327 completed passes versus Nautico’s 1,466 indicates Nautico try to build through the ball, but with only 32 interceptions compared to Criciuma’s 50, the visitors struggle to win it back when they lose possession. Criciuma’s 27 corner kicks in five games to Nautico’s 22 reflects sustained territorial pressure, which should continue here. Both teams operate in a 3-4-3 shape, so the wide areas and transitions will define the tempo. Criciuma’s defensive discipline in that system has been markedly superior.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Criciuma to Win to Nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Criciuma have been the most consistent team in the division across the past month. Their 1-0 win over Novorizontino in the most recent outing continued a run of tightly managed victories where the backline has been near impenetrable. Before that, they defeated second-placed Vila Nova 2-0, a result that reinforced their status as genuine promotion candidates. The 2-1 win over Ponte Preta and back-to-back 1-0 results against Sport Recife and Sao Bernardo round out a flawless recent record. Criciuma’s goals come from multiple positions, with Marcelo Hermes, Waguininho, Fellipe Mateus, Rómulo Otero, and Diego Gonçalves all contributing across these five games. That variety makes them difficult to plan against defensively.
Nautico’s recent form is considerably patchier. Their last match, a 2-1 win over Londrina, offered some relief after a 1-2 home defeat to CRB and a 0-2 loss to Avai. A goalless draw with Juventude and a 0-2 defeat to Sport Recife earlier in the run show a team that struggles to score consistently and leaks goals at a concerning rate. Hélio dos Anjos’ side has scored just three goals in five matches, and their defensive record away from home raises further doubts. The win over Londrina, who sit 17th, should not mask these structural issues heading into a game against the league leaders.
🚨Check out our dedicated Criciuma vs Nautico stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Criciuma the Favourite
- Moneyline Criciuma 1.70 | Nautico 5.25
- Draw 3.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmaker average of 55% for a Criciuma win aligns with the 1.70 moneyline available at bovada and everygame. Given Criciuma’s current form and home advantage, 1.70 is a fair price, and the win-to-nil angle offers better value for those who want to back their defensive record. Nautico at 5.25 reflects their poor away form and goal-scoring struggles accurately. We find the draw at 3.25 unattractive given how one-sided the recent trajectory has been.
Possible Starting Lineups
Criciuma Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Airton
- DF: Marcelo Hermes, Luciano Castan, Rodrigo Fagundes, Willean Bernardo
- MF: Fellipe Mateus, Eduardo Biasi, Rómulo Otero, Jean
- FW: Waguininho, Diego Gonçalves
Baptista is likely to stick with the 3-4-3 shape that has delivered five straight wins. Airton starts in goal after making ten saves across recent matches. Luciano Castan anchors the back three with the most passes of any defender in the squad, while Marcelo Hermes pushes forward from the right of that three to contribute in attack. Rómulo Otero in midfield leads the team in free kick attempts and carries a goal threat from deep. Waguininho leads the press up front and has ten offsides across five games, showing constant movement in behind the defensive line.
Nautico Possible Starting Eleven
- DF: Luiz Felipe, Matheus Ribeiro, Leonardo de Oliveira Jance
- MF: Jean Carlos, Léo Índio, Leonai Souza de Almeida
- FW: Victor Andrade, Derek Freitas Ribeiro
Nautico also deploy a 3-4-3 structure under Hélio dos Anjos. Victor Andrade leads the forward line with 11 shots and 16 free kick attempts in four games, making him the primary outlet. Jean Carlos, despite limited appearances, has directly contributed to three goals and is the most dangerous creative presence in this squad. Matheus Ribeiro and Luiz Felipe provide defensive cover from wide positions. The squad data available for Nautico is thinner than for Criciuma, so some rotation in the back three remains possible.
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Nautico. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Criciuma are the form team in Série B and the only side with a 100% record across the last 30 days. Their defense has conceded once in five matches, their goals come from across the pitch, and they already beat Nautico 1-0 earlier this season. Nautico score infrequently, struggle defensively on the road, and come into this match off a mixed run that includes two defeats in four games. We predict a Criciuma win to nil as the best value pick, with under 2.5 goals as a supporting angle. The corner market also favors the hosts given their territorial dominance, with over 8.5 corners a reasonable expectation based on their average of 27 across five games.
