Liam Duckstein
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is almost here, and for the first time in history, 48 nations will compete across three host countries — the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The expanded format means more drama, more upsets, and more matches to survive before lifting that trophy on July 19. With a new Round of 32 added to the knockout stage, the eventual champions will need to win eight games. That is a test of squad depth, tactical flexibility, and sheer tournament mentality unlike any World Cup before it.
So who is going to do it? Which nation arrives in North America with the best chance of going all the way? We have broken down the contenders, assessed the SapphireBet group stage prices, and delivered a verdict. Here is everything you need to know.
FIFA World Cup 2026 on Tips.gg – Powered by SapphireBet
The Expanded Format Changes Everything
Before diving into the contenders, it is worth understanding why the 2026 World Cup is different. The jump from 32 to 48 teams is not just a numbers game. It fundamentally changes what it takes to win.
The new Round of 32 means the favourites must navigate an extra knockout match before the quarter-finals even come into view. Over the course of June 11 to July 19, the winning squad will play eight matches. Rotations matter. Depth matters. A single injury to a key player carries far greater risk than in previous tournaments.
This structural shift has a direct impact on how bookmakers price every nation. At SapphireBet, the group stage odds already tell a story — the elite nations are priced as near-certainties in Round 1, with the pressure set to build dramatically once the knockouts arrive.
Spain — The Clear Favourite
SapphireBet’s group stage lines say everything you need to know about how the market views Spain. They open their campaign against Cape Verde on June 15, priced at 1.07 to win — one of the shortest prices of the entire group stage. That is not just confidence. That is a near-foregone conclusion.
The reigning European champions arrive at this tournament as the most complete squad in world football. Lamine Yamal, still a teenager but already among the most exciting players on the planet, was the standout performer at Euro 2024 and is set to make his World Cup debut an unforgettable one. Around him, Spain boast a squad packed with La Liga and Champions League regulars who know how to win under pressure.
Tactically, Spain remain the most cohesive unit in international football. Their positional play, pressing structure, and ability to control matches through possession gives them an answer to almost any opponent. The draw has also been kind, landing them in Group H alongside Saudi Arabia, Uruguay, and Cape Verde — a path that should deliver maximum points heading into the knockouts. Their second group game against Saudi Arabia is priced at 1.01 at SapphireBet, making it the closest thing to a certain outcome in the entire tournament.
The question marks are minor. Spain have historically found ways to stumble when favourites — the 2022 exit to Morocco on penalties being the most recent example. But on balance, this is the best team in the world right now.
France — The Form Team
If Spain are the market’s choice, France are the form team’s. Ranked No. 1 in the FIFA world rankings, they open their tournament against Senegal on June 16 priced at 1.40 at SapphireBet — a price that reflects genuine respect for Senegal while confirming France as comfortable favourites.
Kylian Mbappé is the central figure. The 2022 Golden Boot winner enters this tournament at 27 and at the peak of his powers with Real Madrid. He is just two goals shy of France’s all-time international scoring record and five away from Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup record of 16 goals. If Mbappé is locked in — and there is every reason to believe he will be — France become near unstoppable.
Beyond Mbappé, France carry genuine depth in every department. The spine of the side that reached the 2022 final remains intact, and Group I alongside Senegal and Iraq looks very manageable on paper. France’s price of 1.40 against Senegal tells you SapphireBet expect them to progress smoothly.
The concern is well-documented. France have a habit of underperforming relative to their talent level in knockout football, and a draw with Uruguay and defeat to Japan in March 2026 raised eyebrows. But these are concerns, not dealbreakers.
Argentina — Champions Defending Their Crown
No nation has retained the World Cup since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. Argentina will attempt to do just that, and there is a romance to their case that is impossible to ignore.
At SapphireBet, Argentina open their Group J campaign against Algeria on June 17 priced at 1.39 — almost identical to France’s opening price and a clear signal that the market views them as a team capable of deep tournament runs. Their second group game against Austria is priced at 1.325, further evidence of a very favourable group draw.
Lionel Messi, now 38, arrives at what is almost certainly his final World Cup. Whether he can replicate the brilliance of Qatar — seven goals, four assists, a performance for the ages — is the great unknown. His legs are not what they were, but his football intelligence and ability to deliver in decisive moments remain extraordinary.
More importantly, Argentina are not a one-man team. The core of Lionel Scaloni’s side that triumphed in Qatar is largely intact. They topped CONMEBOL qualifying with authority and have lost just once since the start of 2025. This is a group of players who know how to win a World Cup together, and that shared experience is invaluable.
The historical caveat looms large, however. Defending the title is one of football’s most difficult feats, and no team has done it in over 60 years.
England — Perennial Nearly-Men or Finally?
Every four years, England arrive at a major tournament carrying the weight of 60 years of hurt. In 2026, the argument for them is arguably stronger than it has ever been.
SapphireBet price England at 1.64 to beat Croatia in their Group L opener on June 17 — a price that reflects both England’s quality and a healthy respect for a Croatian side that has caused them problems before. It is a tighter price than you might expect for a nation considered among the top four favourites, which tells its own story about the questions that still surround Thomas Tuchel’s side.
Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer, Bukayo Saka, and Harry Kane represent a generation of English footballers who have not just played at the highest club level in Europe — they have thrived there. Kane is England’s all-time leading scorer with 78 international goals. The talent is undeniable, and England’s recent tournament record — a semi-final in 2018, a final at Euro 2020, a semi-final at Euro 2024 — shows a team trending in the right direction.
The counter-argument centres on Tuchel’s pragmatic approach. A draw with Uruguay and a defeat to Japan in March 2026 raised serious questions about whether England’s defensive structure is stifling their attacking quality. Their opening odds of 1.64 against Croatia at SapphireBet — shorter than France’s 1.40 against Senegal but not by a comfortable margin — suggest the market is not fully sold either.
If Tuchel finds the right balance, England are dark-horse champions. If the cautious approach persists, another near-miss beckons.
Brazil and the Rest of the Contenders
Brazil are priced at 1.58 to beat Morocco in their Group C opener on June 14 — a competitive price against one of Africa’s strongest nations, and a reflection of a Brazilian side that is rebuilding under Carlo Ancelotti. Vinicius Junior and Raphinha provide genuine elite quality on both wings, and Ancelotti’s structured setup gives them a defensive solidity that recent Brazilian teams have lacked. They are dangerous, and the outright market should reflect that.
Germany open against Curaçao on June 14 at a near-unbackable 1.02, which tells you everything about the gap in class — but also that Germany are expected to cruise through a forgiving group. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala are two of the most gifted players in world football, and if they click, Germany can go very deep. The squad misses the serial winners of previous generations, but the talent is undeniably there.
Portugal are priced at 1.304 to beat DR Congo on June 17 — comfortable favourites, but not the near-certainties that Spain and Germany are in their openers. At 40, Cristiano Ronaldo defies logic, and Portugal’s squad beyond their captain is genuinely talented. How far they go depends on whether Roberto Martínez can get the best out of a squad with more options than any single tactical system can accommodate.
Netherlands open against Japan on June 14 at 2.01 — almost evens, and the tightest price among the major European favourites in their Round 1 matches. That reflects a Japan side that defeated England in March 2026 and are no longer considered easy opposition. For the Dutch, it is a warning that the expanded format will not be forgiving even from the first whistle.
The Dark Horse: Norway
Norway open their Group I campaign against Iraq on June 17 priced at 1.285 at SapphireBet — short enough to confirm their status as clear group favourites, but long enough to show the market does not yet fully trust them against top-tier opposition.
The reason to back them is simple: Erling Haaland. Making their first major tournament appearance in a generation, Norway are built around the most prolific striker in world football. Haaland is a force of nature — a player capable of single-handedly winning matches on the biggest stages. At Manchester City, he has done it repeatedly. Now, at the World Cup, the stage is finally set.
Norway will not dominate possession or outplay the elite nations tactically. But in the expanded format, where one great performance can send a well-organised side deep into the tournament, Haaland’s presence makes them genuinely dangerous. A quarter-final is realistic. A semi-final is not impossible.
For punters willing to embrace the risk, a small stake on Norway at SapphireBet’s outright price could deliver one of the tournament’s great stories.
Notable Absences: Italy Fail Again
No preview of the 2026 World Cup is complete without addressing the elephant in the room. Italy — four-time world champions — have failed to qualify for a third consecutive tournament, falling to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the UEFA play-offs.
It is a remarkable collapse for a nation that won the World Cup as recently as 2006. Their absence opens up the bracket for several European nations and removes one of football’s traditional dark-horse threats entirely.
Betting Verdict
Here is the bottom line for SapphireBet punters heading into the 2026 World Cup:
Best outright bet: Spain. The most complete squad, the best tactical setup, and genuine tournament pedigree. They are the right pick.
Best value bet: France. Mbappé at his peak, the No. 1 FIFA ranking, and a squad built for exactly this tournament. Back them outright at SapphireBet.
Best each-way option: Argentina. Messi’s final World Cup, a battle-tested squad, and a favourable group draw. Back them to reach the final at minimum.
Best speculative punt: Norway. Haaland on the world stage. In the outright market, their price will be long enough to make a small stake very worthwhile.
Team to be cautious about: England. The market shares the doubts about Tuchel’s setup. At similar outright prices to France, they are the less attractive option.
Head to SapphireBet’s FIFA World Cup 2026 outright market to get the latest prices on all 48 nations before the tournament kicks off on June 11.