Among the three UEFA European competitions, the winter break in the Conference League lasted the longest. But now the teams are ready to burst into action from the play-off stage. Fiorentina will visit Poland, AZ Alkmaar will travel to Armenia, and Crystal Palace will head to Bosnia and Herzegovina. What should you bet on? Let’s break it down together with the TipsGG analytics team.
Sigma Olomouc vs Lausanne
Sigma Olomouc, who advanced to the Conference League play-offs on additional indicators – ahead of Universitatea Craiova on goals scored and Lincoln Red Imps on goal difference – will host Lausanne, who finished just outside the top eight in the League Phase. The paths both teams took to reach this stage already add intrigue to the tie.
Formally, Lausanne look like the more prestigious and balanced side, but the Swiss arrive in poor mood – a five-match winless run raises doubts about their stability. In the previous Conference League round, the Blue-Whites showed average away results: one win, one draw and one defeat. The team tries to play organised football but often struggles with finishing chances, especially away.
Sigma suffered their fourth home defeat across all competitions in 15 matches only in their most recent game. For a team traditionally considered a mid-table side in the Czech league, this is a fairly solid record. In the Conference League at home, Sigma showed the full range of results – a win, a draw and a defeat – but overall looked competitive against opponents of different styles.
Interestingly, all of Sigma’s home European matches ended in either a draw or a minimal win for one side. In Lausanne’s away games, this trend was broken only once – in the match against Lech Poznań (0:2). This indicates both teams’ tendency towards cautious, pragmatic football without large scorelines.
Given Lausanne’s current form and Sigma’s fairly confident home play, the most logical scenario is a low-scoring, tight match. A draw looks very likely, but with the home factor the hosts can also count on a narrow win.
Match bet: Sigma Olomouc to win by exactly 1 goal or draw (odds 1.90)
Noah vs AZ Alkmaar
The reigning Armenian Premier League champions approach this crucial European challenge in specific conditions. With the domestic league on winter break, the team must maintain form through friendlies. Their current league position at home hints at a change of champion: 11 points behind the leaders and fifth place significantly limit the club’s ambitions. The defeat in the last Conference League round to Dynamo Kyiv (0:2) – a side with no tournament motivation at that point – was a painful blow for Noah. This result worsened their seeding position.
The Cheese Farmers currently sit sixth in the Eredivisie. While title talk is over, the battle with Ajax for third place and Champions League qualification looks realistic (6-point gap). AZ comfortably progressed through the Conference League group stage, suffering slip-ups only against Crystal Palace (1:3) and AEK Larnaca (0:4).
Despite the Armenian club having more preparation time due to the earlier scheduling of the tie, the lack of competitive rhythm could be the decisive factor in favour of the visitors. The Dutch side are in match sharpness and show good momentum, while the hosts have not impressed even in control games.
Match bet: AZ Alkmaar Double Chance (X2) + Total Under 3.5 (odds 2.00)
Zrinjski vs Crystal Palace
Three of Zrinjski’s seven points in the current Conference League came from a win over Lincoln from Gibraltar, but qualification for the play-offs would not have been secured without a draw against Austrian Rapid in the final round. The Bosnian champions can get motivated for big-name opponents, as partially proven by their draw at home against Aston Villa in the Conference League two years ago.
Crystal Palace are a suitable club for an intermediate sensation. Oliver Glasner’s side have only one win in their last 14 matches and a long run of away games where they fail to score more than one goal. The only argument in the visitors’ favour is a week-and-a-half break from matches, but this fixture is likely one where match rhythm matters more.
I think Zrinjski will at least secure a draw in the first leg.
Match bet: Both Teams to Score (odds 2.11)
Shkëndija vs Samsunspor
Shkëndija, who traditionally feel much more confident at home, will host Turkish Samsunspor in the first leg of the tie. For the Macedonian club, the home factor has historically played a key role, and the current European season only confirms this.
In the League Phase, Shkëndija collected all their points at home – 7 out of 7 possible. Overall since the start of the season, the Red-Blacks have lost only twice at home, underscoring the team’s stability and organisation on their own pitch. It is worth noting that Shkëndija’s European matches are played in the capital of North Macedonia due to their home stadium not meeting UEFA requirements, but this does not negate their positive home statistics.
Samsunspor approach the match after two defeats and cannot boast stability away. Overall, Turkish clubs are traditionally less convincing outside their home arena, and the Red Lightnings are no exception. In the Conference League, the team have one win, one draw and one defeat in away matches. Samsunspor’s style is more focused on ball control and positional pressure, which is not always effective against the tight, physically tough game that Shkëndija usually imposes.
Despite being favourites with bookmakers, do not expect domination from the visitors in the first leg. Given the two-legged format, Samsunspor can be satisfied with a draw ahead of the home match in Turkey. Shkëndija, on the contrary, will try to make maximum use of the “home” factor and play more boldly.
Considering the hosts’ stability at home and the visitors’ pragmatic approach in away matches, the most logical scenario is a narrow Shkëndija win or a draw.
Match bet: Shkëndija to win by exactly 1 goal or draw (odds 2.15)
Jagiellonia vs Fiorentina
The current Ekstraklasa leaders have played three league matches after the winter break, collecting seven points. The 0:0 draw in the last round against Cracovia was a logical outcome for two evenly matched sides, though it somewhat disappointed fans of both clubs. Excluding friendlies, the last time Jagiellonia lost was in the 5th round of the Conference League group stage against Rayo Vallecano.
Fiorentina beat Como away (2:1) in their most recent trip, capitalising on the opponents’ physical fatigue after cup battles. However, this success did not improve the Viola’s league position, as their direct survival rival Lecce also collected three points. At the start of the second half of the season, the Florentines received a lot of praise with predictions of a quick exit from crisis, but distance has shown that the team’s systemic problems have not disappeared and require far more serious solutions.
In this tie, attention should be paid to the disciplinary market. Both teams actively collected yellow cards during the group stage: Jagiellonia and Fiorentina averaged 2.5 bookings per match. The match will be officiated by Austrian referee Sebastian Gishamer, whose average is 4.8 yellow cards per game.
Match bet: Total Yellow Cards Over 3.5 (odds 1.85)
Omonia Nicosia vs Rijeka
Powerful Omonia will host traditionally stubborn Rijeka.
In the Cypriot championship, Omonia lead confidently, 8 points ahead of their nearest pursuer. Importantly, at home the Greens are the only team yet to lose in 11 matches. At the same time, this trend does not fully transfer to the Conference League: the People’s Team lost minimally in two of three home matches. Admittedly, the opponents were serious – Raków and Mainz, both of whom reached the top eight.
Rijeka, unlike their opponents, do not dominate domestically but are fighting for third place and remain one of the main contenders. In the Conference League, the Whites suffered only one narrow defeat – to Noah (0:1), and spent most of that match with ten men.
An interesting pattern emerges in both teams’ League Phase matches: all of Omonia’s games had Total Under 2.5, while for Rijeka this bet landed in five of six fixtures.
Given the importance of the tie, tournament caution and the pragmatic style of both teams, expecting high-scoring football is difficult. The most logical scenario is a closed match with minimal chances.
Match bet: Total Goals Under 2.5 (odds 1.84)
Drita vs Celje
Kosovo champions Drita will host ambitious Slovenian Celje – a clash between teams that have been significant forces in their domestic leagues for several seasons.
Overall, Drita performed quite well in the League Phase, losing only twice to higher-profile opponents – AZ Alkmaar and Rayo Vallecano (both 0:3). Thanks to equal points at home and away (4 each), the Gjilan side advanced to the next Conference League round. The team looks organised, especially defensively, and knows how to suffer without the ball.
In the Slovenian championship, Celje lead confidently, 12 points ahead of their nearest pursuer. The Counts started excellently in the Conference League – three wins in the first matches – but later lost momentum and now must navigate the play-off stage, which is unlikely to be an easy stroll.
Starting from Champions League qualification, in Drita’s home European matches over 7 games they conceded more than one goal only twice – against AZ Alkmaar (0:3) and FCSB (1:3). This indicates a fairly reliable defence at home against similarly levelled opponents.
Undoubtedly, the visitors have higher individual squad quality, but away from home Celje have recently shown no stability – 4 defeats in their last 5 matches outside their own stadium. Given this, Drita are fully capable of imposing tight, physical football and limiting dangerous chances around their goal.
I expect a cautious match with emphasis on the hosts’ tactical discipline.
Match bet: Celje Individual Total Under 1.5 (odds 1.83)