Date: Thursday, July 24
Route: Vif to Col de la Loze
Distance: 171.5 km
Elevation Gain: 5,450 meters
The Tour de France returns to the high Alps for its Queen Stage – Stage 18 – from Vif to Courchevel, with a finale atop the infamous Col de la Loze. With 5,450 meters of climbing spread across three Hors Catégorie climbs, this is the most demanding day of the 2025 Tour and possibly the final battleground for the yellow jersey.
Route Breakdown: The Climb-Filled Gauntlet
The stage starts gently, with a slightly uphill drag leading to an intermediate sprint at Rioupéroux (KM 23.7). But tranquility ends quickly as the peloton hits the Col du Glandon – 21.7 km at 5.1%, although that number is deceiving. The climb includes two descents and multiple ramps above 10%, testing legs and tactics early. Expect attacks and strong breakaway moves here.
After descending into the valley, the riders will face the brutal Col de la Madeleine: 19.2 km at a relentless 7.9%. There’s no recovery here, just a steady grind to over 2,000 meters of altitude. Though it’s unlikely to see GC moves this far from the finish, attrition begins in earnest.
The real test lies at the finish: the Col de la Loze. This ascent via Courchevel is new territory – 26.4 km at 6.5% – but that average masks chaos. Riders will navigate fluctuating gradients, including a “black kilometre” of 11%, rolling sections, and a final 3km on a steep cycle path that touches 20% ramps. At 2,304 meters, it’s the Tour’s highest point, earning the Souvenir Henri Desgrange.
Source: letour.fr
Weather and Conditions
The weather adds complexity – cloudy skies, possible showers, and chilly air in the high mountains. While no torrential rain is forecasted, the damp roads and cold could sap energy and force caution on descents.
Tour de France 2025 Stage 18. Who will win
According to Fairpari odds, Tadej Pogacar is the favourite for stage 18.
The Battle for Yellow: GC Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
Pogačar returns to the climb that broke him in 2023. He’s over four minutes clear in the GC but remains eager to conquer the Loze for redemption. With memories of his collapse still fresh, expect a composed but sharp ride – perhaps even a solo statement.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Vingegaard is building form and trading attacks again. The Loze gave him a defining win two years ago, and while he trails in this edition, his climbing pedigree makes him a top threat. If Visma deploys support riders like Van Aert or Kuss cleverly, he could launch an offensive from the Madeleine or even earlier.
Other GC Movers
Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull–BORA-hansgrohe) holds third place and has shown elite climbing form, but teammate Primož Roglič is improving fast and could overtake him. Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL) and Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa–B&B) are climbing well but may need to ride defensively. Meanwhile, Felix Gall and Carlos Rodríguez will aim to leverage their pure climbing strength.
Breakaway Watch
Despite the ferocity of the GC battle, a strong breakaway may still win. Candidates include:
- Thymen Arensman (INEOS)
- Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal–Quickstep)
- Lenny Martinez and Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious)
- Michael Woods (Israel–Premier Tech)
- Michael Storer (Tudor)
- Ben O’Connor and Luke Plapp (Jayco–AlUla)
These riders have shown the stamina and pedigree to succeed on a day like this – if they’re given the leash.
Historical Weight and Modern Drama
The Col de la Loze may be new – it was only paved in 2019 – but it already has a fearsome reputation. This engineered path across the alpine spine between Courchevel and Méribel is symbolic of modern cycling’s allure for spectacle. Where nature meets human ambition, the Tour carves its legends. And Thursday’s stage is set for another.
Prediction
Pick: Tadej Pogačar
Motivated by revenge and buoyed by elite form, Pogačar looks poised to reclaim the climb that cost him the 2023 Tour. Expect fireworks late on the Col de la Loze – and potentially, the most iconic moment of this year’s race.
Get ready for an Alpine battle that could define the Tour de France 2025. The Queen Stage lives up to its name – and perhaps, its history.